I sometimes have a strange reaction to catastrophic news events. For instance, on 9/11, I didn’t experience the typical sadness, or fear, or any of that. I felt anger, but it was also mixed with an excited sort of anticipation. Don’t get me wrong; if I could go back and risk my life to save any one of the innocent Americans who died that day I would. But I couldn’t. I could only look to the future, and in some ways I believed the future would be better than the obnoxious status quo.
I actually believed that all of the partisan divisions in our country that so sickened me, and which are the bane of my daily working life, would be muted by an overwhelming sense of national unity. And I was right; that happened — for about five days. It wasn’t exactly WWII all over again. Instead, the president asked us to do nothing but take our tax cuts and go enjoy ourselves while the all-volunteer military did our fighting for us. We could watch it on TV if we were interested, but we didn’t really have to be interested. So we turned away from each other, and naturally, politics as usual returned with alacrity.
So on Thursday, we once again experienced death and destruction — not here in the United States, not technically, but about as good as — and once again (after I learned that people I knew who were in London were safe) my mind turned to what would happen next. This time, I was a little more subdued in my optimism, but I saw reason for optimism nonetheless. You’ll see some of that optimism expressed in today’s editorial, which I wrote. (Yes, I wrote it. I haven’t written many editorials the last few years, but Nina Brook’s departure has forced me to take up honest toil again.)
Seeing President Bush, my hero Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac standing together, reading of the unanimous UN Security Council resolution expressing solidarity against terrorism, and other signs 
tell me that we’ve got another chance at forming a solid coalition of civilized nations to oppose this atavistic, nihilistic madness we call terrorism. And that would be a very good thing. (By the way, I couldn’t tell for sure from the wire caption whether this picture was taken before or after the bombings. I suspect it was before — Mr. Blair looked a lot more grim in subsequent photos. But even if so, the unity the photo session was meant to convey on combatting poverty and disease was mirrored by the unity these leaders and the rest expressed even more vehemently after the bombings, so it illustrates much the same thing.)
Last night, to a class I’m taking at Beth Shalom synagogue about Jewish beliefs concerning the Messiah (yes, I’m Catholic, but I’m very aware that the founder of my religion was a Jew, and I have a hunger to learn what I can about the faith that was his, and without which ours would not exist), Rabbi Hesh Epstein said, "The bombings that took place today in London are part of a process — a painful process" of the world becoming a better place. Specifically, he was talking about our moving closer to the coming of the Mashiach. We Catholics would speak instead of the return of the Messiah, but the end result is much the same.
Echoing author Thomas Cahill, the rabbi said, "This is what Judaism gave the world — the idea that we were headed somewhere" — a linear view of history that bothered to count the passing years, as opposed to seeing life as a series of endless, hopeless cycles. And that "somewhere" is a much better world than the one we currently live in. This, I would add, is a notion that has been appropriated by many who don’t wait for the Messiah — humanists, communists, economic developers and pretty much anyone who believes in progress of any kind.
What happened in London Thursday was horrible beyond words, which may be one reason why I’m not dealing with it directly. But since it’s done and there’s no undoing it, I look forward, and I believe we have another chance to band together across borders to make this a world that simply doesn’t produce terror bombers. That, of course, was why the G-8 leaders were meeting in Scotland — to talk about African poverty, AIDS, global warming and other quality of life (and life-and-death) issues. The bombings emphasized something else we need to work on, and I hope we don’t blow this opportunity, the way we (and by "we" I mean people all over the world) have largely done with the last one. (I wonder whether Tony Blair can show us how it’s done — pull a nation together and keep it together, while strengthening and maintaining strong alliances. If anyone can, he can.)
We must mourn the dead. And as Rabbi Epstein said, the prayer that Jews are most familiar with having to do with the Messiah has to do with death. It’s the Kaddish. But it’s more than just a prayer of mourning; it’s an evocation of the time when God’s justice will be established on Earth. "Sometimes we see death, when there really is redemption," said the rabbi.
Oh, I hope so. And pray so. There has to be a way through this "painful process," to a better end for all.
"This world was made to be a paradise," said the rabbi. "Don’t ever give up hope."
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You write:
You confuse the situation at the start of WW II with the challenges Bush faced, and echo one of the liberal criticisms voiced by the Tom Friedman’s and others – why aren’t we asked to do more?
The US economy in 1941 – we can argue the causes some other time – was in the pits, sustained in large part by federal spending. The war shifted the spending from one part of domestic infrastructure — civil works, the CCC — to building manufacturing capacity and raising armed forces to defeat the Axis.
In March, 2001, approximately six months before 9/11/2001, US employment hit its peak, the downside reflecting the bursting of the dot.com bubble several months before. Bush pursued his election promise to decrease income tax rates, a factor that, despite the 9/11 attacks, allowed employment figures to reach the March 2001 level by October 2003. You may attribute Bush’s approach to ideology, but economic data on the Laffer curve shows that his approach is sound. (Conservatives’ main complaint is that Bush has not scaled back the spending side enough.) Had Bush required all to contribute through increased taxes across the board, our economic situation would be, er, like that found in Germany.
You imply that Americans are not being asked to sacrifice. That may be true in the literal sense, but Americans are not clueless. This Delaware mom found a way to get a vile American corporation to help;
some folks noticed. If you really want world peace, join me in contributing to my very favorite charitable organization here.
There are lots of folks who have family in Iraq and/or Afghanistan and support them by spending more than they’ve save from the evil tax cuts. My family has supported the platoon led by my nephew, a West Point graduate, by sending evil tobacco products, comfort food, waterless hygiene items, etc. Folks without family over there heard about Chief Wiggles and sent toys, clothing, and comfort items for the Iraqis.
We may have another 9/11 or two, but that will not change the minds of most of the folks who view the War on Terror as a corrupt undertaking. The more extreme opponents in Europe have decided to take up a collection for the
take up a collection for the “insurgents”; whether that will catch on over here is anyone’s guess.
Finally, while Tony Blair has altered the direction of the Labour Party and has proved beyond a doubt to be a steadfast ally in the War on Terror, he’s served as the architect of a dramatic change in the foundation of British government and the rights of British citizens.
The House of Lords Act 1999 is controversial and viewed by many to be not a progressive move to representational democracy, but as an attempt to establish the Labor Party as the preeminent lawmaker for decades to come. But I guess that’s politics.
More importantly Blair has overseen the elimination of citizens’ right to self-defense. I don’t write this as a gun-nut, but as one concerned about a government that puts personal safety under the exclusive role of the police. Mace and pepper spray are not allowed in the country, and possession of pocket knives is a serious offense. Here’s a right-wine view. The result is of course increased crime as the bad guys have realized that they can get away with murder since citizens can’t defend themselves – folks who stab intruders in their own homes are jailed. Even the Labour Party is considering changes to allow application of “reasonable force,” but what does that mean?
Mike, we need to sacrifice less for material reasons (although the stragegic need to wean ourselves from foreign oil is a pretty critical material factor) than for psychological, and I would say even spiritual, reasons.
In a way, it’s like at church. I get impatient with people who gripe about being exhorted for money at church. The way I look at it, we should give what we have to God and his church — before we spend on anything else — whether there’s any need to build a new fellowship hall or repair the roof or hire a music minister or anything. The giving itself is good for the soul, and reminds us that there are things more important than our own cupidity.
Sacrificing in a time of war reminds us that we ARE at war, and gives us a tangible investment in its conduct and its outcomes.
Moreover, STRATEGIC sacrifice is something that is essential to winning the war on terror. First, we must do everything we can to make sure we’re no longer dependent on the Saudis or anyone else for the fuel to run our society. That gives us a free hand in dealing with regimes that prop themselves up and avoid modernization because of their oil wealth.
We must:
— Add about a dollar to the federal gasoline tax. That creates a market effect that reduces demand, and the money can be spent to provide our military with everything it needs to win this war, and take care of the casualties and other veterans. It also helps pay for the international programs we need to change the world in ways other than military.
— Drill in the Arctic. I don’t think that’s really going to hurt any caribou, but if it does, that’s better than terrorism killing people. Yes, I know the reserves up there are a drop in the bucket toward what we would need to be independent, but it sends another signal that we are serious and pragmatic about doing EVERYTHING we can.
— Raise fuel economy standards. The technology exists — we use it in sedans. It should apply to the rest of the fleet.
— Initiate a serious, Manhattan/Apollo style, supreme-national-priority program to develop alternative fuels. Preferably hydrogen, but whatever.
— Drop those stupid, ideologically driven (and therefore politically divisive) tax cuts to PAY for that crash program.
— Balance the federal budget — for real, not the way Clinton claimed to have done. We need a healthy economy, and that does not include the kinds of deficits we are unnecessarily running because of tax cuts.
Does that make more sense now?
— Brad
P.S. — The Laffer Curve always reminds me of Ben Stein in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. It cracks me up.
I’m all in favor of commitments to preserve the American experiment and am willing to spend a couple of my own bucks to give the oppressed overseas a chance to rot their brains with MTV. It’s just that some of what you describe as “sacrifice,” elected officials regard as income to be spent to assure their reelection. Look at the highway bill and the latest farm bill – at least drunken sailors spend their own money.
The US can achieve the goals you tout at a reasonable cost – we have other problems (Medicare and Social Security) that will throttle the federal budget later – and with fewer deaths. All we have to do is suspend some civil liberties and keep the economy strong. We do the latter by letting folks spend their own money as they see fit.
First, I will go you one further on drilling in ANWR — I’ll pledge to eat caribou two meals per week if that’s what it takes. The cost to the taxpayer is nil because oil companies will make the investments. Ditto for Alberta tar sands where it takes $35 to extract a barrel of oil, but our neighbors to the north have loads of it.
We agree that hydrogen is the fuel of the future, the only issue is how to produce it. Up until about a decade ago many thought that natural gas could serve as the ideal generating source, but we who use gas at home have noticed that the price has more than doubled since 2000. Natgas demand has shot up because it’s a clean fuel that’s ideal for generating electricity in today’s political and regulatory climate: site selection, permitting, construction, ease of financing, lack of NIMBY opposition, pollution control, etc. – made it the first choice. (We are adding ports for LNG tankers, but those who live around ports are not real pleased with having terrorist targets anywhere near their harbors.) There’s no need for a Manhattan/Apollo style program to select the fuel. Lots of companies (BP has a big ad in today’s Wall Street Journal) are investing in hydrogen research, including on-board vehicle storage and hydrogen fuelling stations technologies.
Today the only reasonable way to move to a hydrogen economy is to build more nukes; even some environmentalists now agree and Duke is making plans. There’s no real direct financial cost to the taxpayer, other than a tax-credit or two, since the utilities will make the investment. There is the one big economic cost of uncertainty which could be handled through legislation to stop BANANA, NIMBY, and other nuisance suits so that investors are willing to advance capital, back bonds, and otherwise financially support the construction of the plants. (This is what I meant by suspending a civil liberty or two since the unspoken right of Americans is to sue to get our way, slow things down, or make a living.) One other neat thing about using nukes is that they’re always hot. Today’s plants shut down boilers / turbines during non-peak hours. With a hydrogen economy the plants can run full blast and generate hydrogen during non-peak hours, producing a new income stream for the utility.
That’s it for the easy points of agreement. Let me start off my discussion of unintended consequences by noting that I am a car nut and yearn for the day when I’ll be willing and able to get one of my dream cars. So when you mess with cars, I take it personally.
A bpg (buck per gallon) tax would cost the average SC driver (18 MGP, 12,000 miles per year) $13 per week or $760 per year. (That’s the cost of liability-only car insurance, something that still seems all too uncommon in the Palmetto State and would likely become a little rarer once again.) With domestic gasoline consumption of
320,500,000 gallons per day (that’s 3700 gallons per second!), a bpg tax would generate somewhat less than the $116,982,500,000 that simple multiplication would indicate because folks would buy less gas; they’d cut back on all purchases by more than the $13 they’d personally pay in bpg because the cost of everything will increase:
The 1975 CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) requirements resulted in myriad unintended consequences. While it does conserve fuel, it did create the SUV market and does kill people (2,600 to 4,500 folks in 1997). Here’s an excellent overview of the issues, distortions, trade-offs, and alternatives.
But today, mid 2005, there’s a bigger reason to be careful – a bpg tax and increased CAFE standards will sink GM and Ford, two companies that probably ought to sink because of the compound stupidities they’ve committed. How bad is it? Their debt is considered junk, their used models depreciate quickly, and even foreign competition is alarmed. Toyota Chairman Hiroshi Okuda has been worrying aloud for two months about a new trans-Pacific trade fray; Toyota may or may not be raising prices to help GM and Ford out of their sales slumps. Consumers know who makes the more reliable products. Compare a used GM or Ford model with its foreign equivalent and you’ll find that generally the used foreigner costs more, which is why I buy the used Detroit iron so as to maintain a relationship with my mechanic. How about we leave any CAFE changes off the table and let the domestic duo sell what they do well – Cadillacs, Corvettes, Mustangs, Crown Vics, trucks, and SUVs, leaving the small car market to the Japanese, Koreans, and, soon, Chinese? I am quite serious – the foreigners will have no problems meeting CAFE, but the dynamic duo will, leaving the taxpayers-funded Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation to take care of the domestic duos’ retirees.
Finally, I get the feeling that you think that the government can spend your money better than you can when you write:
Or am I missing something?
The State has recently run Tom Friedman’s columns on the success of the once poor-man of Europe, Ireland. He’s highlighted some of the keys to success: low-cost but top caliber education, low corporate taxes, etc. But he doesn’t look too deploy at overall economic efficiency and the fact that allowed Ireland to achieve its success: overall lower taxes. This chart shows Total taxation as % of GDP. Note that Sweden, actually a poor country – the average income for Swedes is less than the average income for US blacks – is at the top with taxes representing 54% of GDP. Positions 2 through 11 are all European nations where taxes represent 37% to 49% of GDP. We find Ireland at position 16 (31.1%) and the US at 17 with taxation at 29.6% of its GDP. Compare this one number with unemployment rate, economic growth, buying power and other stats, and one may conclude that citizens are better off when their government takes less of their money, unless, of course, one is Paul Krugman.
You may laugh at the Laffer Curve, but let’s take a look at the extremes. If tax rates are zero, the government take is zero. If tax rates are 100%, the government take is zero because no one works for nothing. The most efficient tax rate – the one that collects the most money with the least overhead (tax collectors, whips, chains, debtors’ prisons, etc.) – is somewhere in between. (Several studies have pointed to a 20-25% rate, but that’s for a different day.)
As for ideology, a desire for small government is ideological (something I support). Certainly Bush’s tax cuts were ideologically motivated, but there was economic research to support lower rates, and a quite pragmatic need was to stimulate the economy after the dot.com bust and 9/11. Oh, and the lower rates are producing economic growth, with the deficit estimates falling.
As a moral issue, I couldn’t look people in the eye while taking 40% or more of their earnings. They work hard for what they earn and I can’t justify sending it to Robert C. Byrd’s or Ted Stevens’ constituents, for Ted Turner’s farm in Montana, or for the gray-haired scooter-riders in Kentucky. Meanwhile, the rich are paying most of the income taxes anyhow. Isn’t it time we bumped up the taxes on the poor? Wait, that’s what the bpg does – brilliant!
I’m disappointed that the ideological drive to reduce the size of government by reducing spending has stalled because we’re maintaining an environment where citizens rely on government spending and government-subsidized scooters (see above) too durn much. It looks like the two (three?) parties are acting like an immature couple ostensibly on a tight budget, until he gets table saw he’s coveted and she retaliates with that tennis bracelet she hinted at last anniversary and then he gets the new golf clubs…
I am serious about this too – we could offer War Bonds with a disounted interest rate. I’d buy them.
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