Predictions? What? You think this is a game?

As I so piously state, time and time again, for me it’s not about who will win an election, but about who should win, and we’re just trying to foster constructive conversations about the choices, yadda, yadda, blah, blah.

I mean it; I really do. But there are those who take it all less seriously, and insist upon trivializing the whole process to the level of a reality TV show or some such by making predictions about outcomes. As if anybody could know. And eventually, they wear me down and I make my own prognostications.
This time I’m going to do it a little earlier, since I was gigged by this e-mail today:

Time to put your
guesses to paper (or electronic paper anyway) and eternal scrutiny in guessing
the outcome of the upcoming elections…. In each
case please give the winner’s name. For governor only please also give a
percentage of the vote the winner will receive. Let’s play the feud!

1. Governor (and
percentage of the vote):
2. Lieutenant
governor
3.
Treasurer
4. Education
superintendent
5. Comptroller
general
6. Secretary of
state
7. Adjutant
general
8. Agriculture
commissioner
 
Tie
breakers:
1. The final
breakdown of the U.S. House of Representatives: (e.g. 220 Ds, 215
Rs)

2. The final
breakdown of the U.S. Senate (e.g. 50 Ds, 49 Rs, 1 Ind)

OK, so here are mine:

1. Sanford (57 percent)
2. Bauer
3. Patterson
4. Floyd
5. Theodore
6. Hammond
7. Spears
8. Weathers
Needless to say, I hope I’m wrong on the first four.

The two tie-breaker questions seem ridiculous to me. The number of variables make them as unpredictable as the shifting of the desert sands; I can’t tell you what the dunes will look like in the end. But here goes:

1. 222 Ds, 213 Rs
2. 49 Ds, 50 Rs, and my man Joe!

What do y’all think? I won’t be surprised — or embarrassed — if y’all all do better than I. This is not my thing.

28 thoughts on “Predictions? What? You think this is a game?”

  2. chrisw

    Eckstrom is going to win..he will do better than u think. And he has a GREAT closing 4 days.
    The Reps are gonna sweep…but this will actually be good for the Dems…will give them the leeway to make the changes they need to become competitive.
    SC needs a competitive two party system.

  3. LexWolf

    1. Sanford (61 percent)
    2. Bauer
    3. Ravenel
    4. Floyd
    5. Eckstrom
    6. Hammond
    7. Spears
    8. Weathers
    House: 225R, 210D
    Senate: 53R, 45D, 2I

  4. bud

    Sanford – 55%
    Barber
    Ravenel
    Floyd
    Theodore
    Hammond
    Spears
    Weathers
    House: 219D – 216R
    Senate: 48D 50 2I (Lieberman and Jeffords)

  5. Rob

    First things first. Moore is in this for jobs at any cost and that means making nuclear teddy bears at SRS if it means jobs and money for the state. A vote for Moore is a vote to make SRS bomb plant #1. Floyd and her “multilayer” approach is nothing but wind. Her mention of new technology in the classroom, her fangirl attitude towards No Child Left
    Behind Act point to one possible outcome. Look to none other than silverado S&L pretty boy Neil Bush and his company Ignite. This company seeks to profit of the “No Child” legislation by bringing COW (curriculum on wheels) into classrooms. This is kind of a spongebob approach to teaching students. The verdict is still out as to COW effectiveness. This in my opinion the kind of half baked technology Floyd wants to bring to SC schools for the sole purpose of promoting her political career.

  6. Dave

    1. Sanford (59 percent)
    2. Bauer
    3. Ravenel
    4. Floyd
    5. Eckstrom
    6. Hammond
    7. Spears
    8. DeFelice
    House: 220D, 215R
    Senate: 51R, 47D, 2I
    Even if thd Dems control the House, they wont get any of their tax increases passed or they will be vetoed. Gridlock for at least 2 years.

  7. Doug

    1. Sanford (54 percent)
    2. Bauer (Slick Willie Jr. – our next gov!)
    3. Ravenel
    4. Floyd (will have the highest %)
    5. Eckstrom (tightest race)
    6. Hammond
    7. Spears
    8. DeFelice
    House: 225D, 210R
    Senate: 50R, 48D, 2I

  8. Lee

    Rob, I hate to break it to you, but SRS has been DISMANTLING nuclear bombs for the last 10 years, converting the weapons from the USSR, Libya, and Iraq into fuel for our electric generating plants.
    Democrats in Washington, grandstanding for their ignorant “environmental voters”, have tried to block this disarming effort at every funding vote.

  9. chrisw

    I fund this on anther blg. Why is it that rinformation like this is so hard to find in the State…
    Robert Barber: Chicken to disclose lobbying work?
    So… should Robert Barber disclose his lobbying work to the voters?
    No, his handlers argue. Technically, he complied with the law by filing necessary paperwork with the Ethics Commission.
    But his records have since been shredded. So, believing they were safely hidden from public view, Barber masqueraded as a lobbyist for only non-profits. (Actually, “public interest advocate” is the term he uses.)
    But many folks in Columbia remembered Barber’s work as a paid lobbyist for a cockfighting ring. Lo and behold, although Barber’s paperwork was gone, records filed by “Gamefowl Management Inc.” were still on the computer at the Ethics Commission. They revealed that Barber had indeed lobbied for the group.
    So much for the “non-profits” his handlers are fond of referring to.
    When Lt. Governor Andre Bauer asked Barber during the first debate about his work as a lobbyist for cockfighting, the “public interest advocate” said he lobbied for bill to ban the sale of animals such as goldfish at places like the State Fair. Why was “Gamefowl Management” so interested in protecting goldfish? They weren’t. Actually, it was an amendment to the Goldfish Bill they were interested in. The amendment contained language that kept legal the “testing” of gamefowl.
    During the second debate, Bauer took Barber to task for Barber’s generous interpretation of his cockfighting work. The bill Barber lobbied for passed by a unanimous voice vote, Bauer told Barber, because lawmakers did not realize the implications of the word “testing.”
    Barber’s confidence-inspiring reply? “You should have read the bill.”
    (The State newspaper, of course missed all this.)
    Bauer has since challenged Barber to reveal to the voters the details of his lobbying work: how much he earned, who he worked for, etc. South Carolinians deserve to know, Bauer says, adding that refusing to disclose such information would be a disservice to voters.
    Still, Barber — who served as a “consultant” to the group as recently as last year — has declined.
    Barber criticizes Bauer for violating the public trust. But isn’t it hypocritical for him to do so while declining repeated requests to disclose his lobbying work to the voters?
    Should Barber disclose? What do you think?

  10. Joshua Gross

    Sanford (58%)
    Bauer
    Ravenel
    Floyd
    Eckstrom
    Hammond
    Spears
    Weathers
    (Clean Sweep)
    House 218R, 217D
    Senate 51R 49D
    (Lieberman wins, rejoins Dems) Jeffords is retiring this year, and will be replaced by noted Socialist Bernie Sanders, running as a Democrat. Watch for Michael Steele to pull off the surprise in MD.
    See you Tuesday night.

  11. mark g

    It will be a late night with lots of surprises…
    Sanford– 51%
    Barber
    Ravenel
    Rex
    Theodore
    Hammond
    Spears
    DeFelice
    House– 221D/214R
    Senate– 50/50

  13. Brad Warthen

    Mark G may have it right, although I think Sanford will do better than that, and (alas, since he’s one of our own here on the blog) I don’t think Emile will win.
    But Rex has a good chance. In predicting Floyd as the winner, I was reflecting a brief nihilistic mood. That race is close, and if the right people turn out, Rex wins it.
    Who are the right people? Those who care about education — whether you’re talking public or private, K-12 or higher. Karen doesn’t have a clue about any of that stuff. It’s not just a matter of experience; I don’t think she’s even thought about it much, based on her vapid comments. Rex would be an actual reformer, who knows enough about the system to succeed in making changes that need to be made. Floyd would create chaos and accomplish nothing.
    Sanford is going to win because of the weakness of his opponent. But Floyd’s opponent is so obviously qualified and committed to reform, and she is so obviously lacking in substance, that the equation is different. The governor is better qualified to be governor than she is to be a teaching assistant, much less superintendent of education. Voters know that, which is why even if she wins, it won’t be by anything like the margin you’ll see with Mark Sanford.

  14. bud

    Brad, as much as I hope you’re right about Mr. Rex I don’t think he has much of a chance. The people in SC are easy pickins for Ms. Floyd’s pie in the sky rhetoric.

  15. Steve

    Remember, subscribers to The State, according to Brad Warthen, if you vote for Karen Floyd, you are one of the wrong people who don’t care about education. It’s his way or no way.

  16. Steve

    I’m actually now hoping Rex wins so we can watch Warthen and Scoppe try to explain why there’s no improvement in our schools four years from now. Probably endorse him again to give him time to get his plan ready.

  17. bud

    Didn’t Ms. Floyd come out in favor of teaching creation science in our schools? That’s an automatic disqualifier for me. And much, much more important than the voucher issue. Both sides on the voucher debate exaggerate it’s impact. I don’t believe it will either solve or exacerbate education problems to any great extent.

  18. Doug

    I think Brad should tell us all now what metrics he will be using four years from now to determine how effective Floyd or Rex’s performance has been.
    In fact, give us the metrics you use to rate Inez’s performance… What letter grade would you give her tenure? In PACT terms, she gets a BASIC from me. Not Proficient nor Advanced.

  19. Steve Gordy

    Stick to the elections, folks (drop the extra prognostications; we already know your thoughts on these issues).
    Sanford (55%)
    Toss-up between Bauer and Barber
    Floyd, by a narrow margin
    Republicans take all other posts
    House – 221D, 214R
    Senate – 51R, 47D, 2I

  21. LexWolf

    Ummmm……is that why you had to write 4 paragraphs earlier (10:13:32 AM)? Unlike the rest of us, you could have simply started a new thread.

  22. Paul DeMarco

    I’ll buck the tide and pick Moore for governor. I haven’t seen any polling data but I’ve heard enough of my Republican friends say they are tired of him to think that Moore has a fighting chance:
    Moore
    Barber
    Patterson
    Rex
    Theodore
    Hammond
    Spears (although I’m voting for Lindman-the job should be appointed)
    DeFelice
    House 223D/212R
    Senate 50D/49R/1 Ind (Go Joe)

  24. AJ

    Moore 50% + 1
    Bauer 55%
    Ravenel 55%
    Rex 51%
    Theodore 51%
    Hammond 70%
    Lindman 51%
    DeFelice 52%
    225 Ds 210 Rs
    49Ds 49Rs 2Is
    Oh yeah, least I forget…
    Gunn 52%, Cotty 46%, Letts 2%
    Summers 55% Harrison 45%

  25. Wolfgang

    My predictions are as follows.
    Sanford 54%
    Bauer 56%
    Ravenel 54%
    Floyd 58%
    Hammond 55%
    Eckstrom 51%
    Spears 60%
    Weathers 61%
    I just returned from touring the state and have been a political consultant for both parties through 26 races both statewide and local. Traditionally Statewide a Republican will win 55% if no controversy just running equal versus equal but after having seen who is targeting what areas, looking at the demographics, polls, and resources without a doubt I believe they will hold to that give or take a few points. The polls I have seen are bothe Democratic and Republican.

  27. Piney Woods Cracker

    Sanford (55%)
    Barber
    Ravenel
    Theodore
    Floyd
    US HOUSE 225 Democrats; 210 Republicans
    US SENATE on Nov. 8: 50 Republicans; 48 Democrats; 2 Independents (Sanders caucuses with Democrats to make 49) (Lieberman holds the final card. If he caucuses with Democrats, then Sen. Collins of Maine switches making it 51 in the Democratic caucus and 49 in the Republican caucus).

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