A WashPost blog called "Behind the Numbers" has thrown cold water on an Associated Press projection "that if Barack Obama lives up to his pledge to boost African American
turnout by 30 percent, he would score big wins across the south."
I had heard of the AP analysis until I read this. I thought y’all might be interested — especially since Obama has indicated he wants to contest South Carolina — so I call it to your attention. An excerpt:
Taking Georgia as an example: George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 17
points in 2004, a massive margin, and better than his 12-point victory
in 2000. Average GOP advantage: 425,796 votes. But add in 1996 (when
Bob Dole beat Clinton by a single point) and 1992 (a narrow Clinton
win), and the average drops to 216,218 votes, a much lower threshold.
Using the CPS data further confounds the issue. The 2000 CPS estimate for black turnout in Georgia exceeds the total number of African American registered voters in the Georgia Secretary of State’s database by more than 27,000.
Substituting the 2000-2004 average for the 1992-2004 average and
using estimates of black voter turnout from the state government, shows
that black turnout would have to go up by 81 percent to put Obama over
the top; again assuming all else remained the same. Compared with 2004
alone, black turnout would have to about double (increase 96 percent)
to give Obama the state’s 15 Electoral College votes.
Well, it makes my head spin — but perhaps y’all will get something out of it.