No matter how much time I spend thinking and talking and writing about politics, I am still often surprised when someone mentions something really obvious that I haven’t thought of.

This fits into that category.

Late last week, I dropped by Steve Morrison’s HQ to look around, and to chat with former Rep. Candy Waites, who gave me the tour. We looked at the city maps and the breakdowns by precinct — the way they’re looking at it, it all depends on a few voting places north and south of Rosewood — and we talked about her candidate’s chances.

According to Candy, for the Morrison campaign it all depends on Tuesday. As long as he gets into the runoff — the one question mark — they figure he wins. Here’s why:

If they find themselves in a runoff against Kirkman Finlay III (the less likely scenario, it seems to me — I can’t imagine Benjamin coming in third), they’re set because Steve Benjamin voters won’t vote for Finlay. Makes sense.

If they’re up against Benjamin, same deal: Finlay voters won’t go for that Steve. So Morrison is the beneficiary.

One problem with that thinking is that in the first scenario, you’d have to turn out disappointed Benjamin voters. And I have a sense that disappointed Benjamin voters are going to be harder to motivate to vote again for a second choice than disappointed Finlay voters. I say that because of demographics (race, income and age), but also because there seems to be a greater emotional investment in Benjamin than in Finlay. It also reckons without the fact that there will almost certainly be a hotly contested runoff in the 4th council district, which means Finlay’s constituents will turn out in higher numbers than voters in the 1st and 3rd districts (with Cromartie’s 2nd being a wild card that could, on the contrary, benefit Morrison).

But again, that is the least likely scenario. The way I figure, in order of likelihood, the matchups would be (with the more likely top vote-getter in each pairing listed first):

1. Benjamin-Finlay
2. Benjamin-Morrison
3. Finlay-Morrison

But the underlying reason that Morrison voters would be upbeat about a runoff if they get into one is that Morrison is the unity candidate. With his record as a pro-bono crusader for poor school districts and Urban League leader, he’s a natural for Benjamin voters to turn to (if they turn to anyone). At the same time, he has a history of ties to some of the same leading business interests that have always backed Finlay.