Politico brought this to my attention this morning:
Washington (CNN) – Two new polls, but as of now the same old story: Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin remain the leaders of the pack in hypothetical 2012 GOP presidential nomination matchups.
According to an ABC News-Washington Post survey, 21 percent of Republican or independent leading Republicans say that as of now, Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate, is their choice for their party’s presidential nomination, with 19 percent supporting Palin, the former Alaska governor and Sen. John McCain’s runningmate in the last presidential election, and 17 percent backing Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who also ran for the White House in 2008.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was a distant fourth, at nine percent, followed at eight percent by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has repeatedly said he is not going to make a bid for the White House in 2012. Everyone else was in the low single digits.
That’s very good news for Barack Obama. I like Huckabee, but his viability remains to be seen. Romney SHOULD be viable, but the GOP has embraced, as though it were gospel, the idiotic doctrine that insurance mandates are bad, so bye-bye, Mitt. Sarah Palin is severely hampered by the fact that she is Sarah Palin.
Of course, these early polls mean little, they just show how little people have thought about whom they will actually vote for. The contest is not yet engaged. As Spencer Whetstone wrote on Facebook this morning when I mentioned this poll, “Of course at this point in the last cycle the punditry were telling us that a Giuliani – Clinton match-up was inevitable.”
Yep.
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Can we never escape presidential campaign season? I mean, football season is normally over for a few months, during which time I can do something constructive!
Huckabee is working hard on t.v. these days to ensure that he will not be in the final nomination hunt. Repealing a heathcare law is hardly a crusader’s platform.
The commercials have him looking shrill and angry; an antagonizer and not a leader. At least Romney has that quality about him.
It all comes down to one number and one number only – the national unemployment rate. If it’s under 8% Obama wins in a landslide. Between 8 and 9 it will be close. Above 9% and we can play hail to the chief for President Palin. Ouch that’s a scary thought.
Talking about presidential candidates this early is like talking about the finalized state budget anytime prior to the last week of the legislative session.
I still say Obama will be a one-term president.
Unemployment over 9% in November of 2012 = Obama is a one term President.
I think people don’t want Romney because he’s a Mormon. He would be my first choice in 2012.
@ Doug,
I don’t agree with your reason about Romney being a Mormon. It may have some influence on an insignificant number of voters but IMO, not enough to make a difference. Lest we forget, the same argument was made when JFK ran except it was about Catholics.
As far as bud’s comment about Palin and 9% unemployment getting her elected. No way under the sun Sarah Palin will ever occupy the White House. Whether one loves her, hates her, or simply ambivalent about her, she is loaded down, rightfully or wrongfully, with so much extra baggage, it takes a fleet of trucks to carry it around. Compared to her, Richard Nixon would be considered a blank sheet of paper.
I think Palin yesterday was coming in at a 56% DIS-approval rating.
Bart, I was being a bit sarcastic about Ms. Palin. The GOP nominates the person whose turn it is and that would be Mitt Romney. He wins the White House with unemployment at 9+.
One thing is for sure, we won’t have to see McCain, Guiliani, and Fred Thompson any more.
I also don’t think there is any chance that Palin can win the nomination. She cannot withstand a real campaign where she has to respond to tough questions and offer more than a wink and a “you betcha”. She would be a great trainwreck to watch though. Wait til all the Fox folks have to start choosing sides – that’ll start happening in the next six months.
It’s unlikely that unemployment will fall below 9% before Nov 2012. But it’s also unlikely that Obama will be defeated. Why do people keep underestimating this man?
To me, Sarah Palin is that annoying neighbor you hate because she has an opinion on everything and just won’t shut up. Gallup says over 50% of Americans now agree with me.
Don’t agree with Romney either and not because of his religion. Someone with true charisma and appeal will have to surface and reach the voters in order to have a realistic chance of winning in 2012.
Obama is doing what he needs to do for re-election. Moving a little closer to the center, standing up to Chavez went a long way, and his speech in Tucson was very good.
He is already in campaign mode and so are his supporters. The teflon will be reapplied once again and he will be back for another term.
Thought bud was being a little sarcastic, but not sure. Should have known better.
The only caveat about Palin is this. If the press, pundits, media, and her critics pile on too much, there could be a serious backlash and it could propel her into office.
If pundits like Eugene Robinson keep writing columns comparing her to Eva Peron and basically telling her to “shut up”, it will smack of hypocrisy every time they invoke the First Amendment for their own agendas.
The vitriol has become just too unhinged for my taste on both sides. Someone called my attention to a liberal radio host in Milwaukee talking about the female Republican Lt. Governor of Wisconsin. For the sake of civility, I will try to convey what he said without being offensive. On the air, he basically said she performed a “Lewinsky” on talk show hosts and participated in gang sex. Palin has received much worse treatment.
Sooner or later, the public will grow weary of the constant barrage of insults, denigration, and attempts to silence Palin and the tide will turn.
Best thing to do is ignore her, let her have her say, and move on. If she gets under your skin, she wins, you lose. The loss column on the left grows every time one lashes out at her.
It’s unlikely that unemployment will fall below 9% before Nov 2012.
-jfx
It’s already at 9.4% and falling, albeit very slowly. I believe there is about an 80% chance unemployment will be under 8% by Election day 2012.
Bart, John Kerry tried ignoring the Swiftboat smear in 2004 and it proved to be a disasterous strategy. The liberals shouldn’t completely ignore Palin and all her victimization drama but at the same time piling on could, indeed, backfire. It’s a mighty thin wire to navigate.
Drives Destroyed as Governor Exits
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/print/282516/Drives_Destroyed_as_Governor_Exits
Former Ark. governor hit with ethics complaint over destroyed hard drives
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9010162/Former_Ark._governor_hit_with_ethics_complaint_over_destroyed_hard_drives
Mike Huckabee ordered the destruction of 87 computers owned by the State of Arkansas. The hard drives in the computers were crushed instead of reformatted and the OS reinstalled.
I think the problem with Kerry was not so much ignoring the Swift Boat ads because Kerry is about as exciting as watching paint drying. And, quite frankly, he came across as a stiff, pompous, elitist. IMHO, voters were looking for reasons to not vote for him because of his public persona.
He may be one of the fine political minds of his era, but in politics, perception is just as important as substance. In Kerry’s case, perception won out.