If there’s one thing an INTP should know, it’s to go with his gut.
Which I did not do yesterday.
From the start of the campaign for the District 3 seat on Columbia City Council, I had thought Moe Baddourah was the guy to beat. Yes, partly that was because of all the yard signs. Months ago (way early in terms of conventional yard sign theory), I saw about 10 on one block of Wheat Street. Everywhere you went in the district: “Moe!”
Beyond that, there was his convincing assurance that he had learned a lot from Seth Rose in losing to him two years ago, and was applying the lessons.
So until very recently, I was sure that it would be Moe and someone else in a runoff. Either Daniel Coble or Jenny Isgett.
But then, in the last days of the campaign, I heard that there were polling data out there indicating that Jenny Isgett would come in either first or second, with Daniel Coble being in a runoff with her. It was counterintuitive, but then I thought, “Hey, we’re talking small number of voters here, so tiny fluctuations can make a difference and overwhelm the factors that you’re seeing out there.” That caused me to overthink what I was seeing. I started thinking, “Moe peaked too soon.” (Of course, I was aware that with such a small number of voters, even the best polling data could be negated by relatively small shifts on Election Day — which was why I hedged my prediction.)
Well, we saw what happened. My gut was right all along.
As it usually is. I should have known better than to be so influenced by one hearsay data point.
Always trust the gut, without overwhelming evidence to the contrary…
Anyway, now it’s Moe and Daniel in a tight runoff. Right now, either of them could win. My gut is telling me that Coble should be able to win over more Isgett voters than Baddourah, but it’s also telling me it isn’t sure yet. It’s still collecting cosmic waves, or whatever. And it has fresh reason not to count Moe out.
When it’s sure, I may tell you. Then again, I may not. This latest experience is reminding my why I avoided making predictions for so many years.
That’s because you didn’t believe a sandwich guy could beat a lawyer and Bob Coble-Lite.
No, actually it was completely different from that. You’re talking about gut reactions, and my gut reaction was that Moe would have a strong showing.
As I clearly explained, I foolishly let a couple of points talk me out of it. One was the poll (which I only heard about and did not examine, which was particularly dumb), and the other (which I didn’t mention above, because I’m just remembering it) was that I thought there were enough voters in Shandon who were likely to go for the Identity Politics argument that Jenny was advancing: “You should elect a woman because a woman has held the seat for 30 years.” I should have respected Shandon voters more than to think they’d go for that.
Here’s a helpful hint for how to read this blog: When I say I think a certain way because of Reason X, that means… try to follow me here… that I think that way because of Reason X. You don’t have to strain yourself coming up with alternative explanations. My actual PURPOSE in writing the blog is to tell you why I think a certain way. If I didn’t want you to understand that, if I didn’t want to lay bare my reasoning, I wouldn’t bother blogging.
I hope that helps.
I’d bet on mini-Coble in the runoff.
Mr. Badourah. Years ago you served my father in the TIF Wars. Now he begs you to help him in his struggle against city council. I regret that I am unable to convey my father’s request to you in person, but my ship has fallen under attack, and I’m afraid my mission to bring you to Main Street has failed. I have placed information vital to the survival of the Rebellion into the memory systems of this R2 unit. My father will know how to retrieve it. You must see this droid safely delivered to him on Main St. This is our most desperate hour. Help me, Moe Baddourah. You’re my only hope.
Good stuff, Silence! May the Moe be with you…
Some thought it would be Clemenza making the move against the don’s kid. But I should have known it would be Moe all along. Moe was always the smart one…
Actually, I guess I should say “the bob,” rather than “the don.”
Jenny Isgett sleeps with the fishes.
Oh, I thought I read he was an Andy’s Deli guy. No big deal, since he won’t represent me anyway.
“Jenny Isgett sleeps with the fishes.”
Not a bad place for a lawyer to be.
She’s not that woman on Fitsnews’s Secret Service article is she? Not a lot of “sleeping” going on there.
And Moe’s not a “sandwich guy.” He has an Italian restaurant. Here’s the dinner menu. I haven’t eaten there myself, but I hear it’s pretty good.
I always like Moe and I thought the early use of yard signs was great. It gave him the appearance of a frontrunner and were so catchy .
As for Ms Isgett she seemed very POed with the flurry of endorsements from Coble in the waning days. Though I have 0 inside knowledge at all and have never talked to her she may lean the other way.
” Years ago you served my father in the TIF Wars. Now he begs you to help him in his struggle against city council”
Very Nice Silence
Moe will fit in well with the rest of the stooges.
@ SDII – Yes, that was a nice article over on FITS… No idea who the woman was, though, but inquiring minds want to know. I hope it’s someone local and at least pseudo-famous. That’d be awesome.
I think Moe carried the “pro-business” community and Daniel the “neighborhoods.” Jenny had a lot of Junior League/young mom supporters who were probably away for spring break, and, I think, lost a lot of the business supporters when she said she hadn’t really thought through all the ramifications of eliminating business license fees. I appreciated her honesty, but it was awfully Sarah Palin. Moe was more confident (if equally misguided about business license fees.)