For months, we’ve been hearing, “Yeah, people tell pollsters they’re going to vote for Trump, but there haven’t been any actual votes yet, and there’s no way that actual, normal people are going to go to the polls and vote for a guy like that.”
Well, yes, they are. Or somebody is.
The “don’t worry” crowd pointed to Iowa and said, “See? He didn’t win.” But you see, if you’re talking actual votes, Iowa shouldn’t count. A caucus is… weird. The only way to find out whether people were lying to pollsters is to have a real vote; it’s the only true test. People have to go into that booth alone, and with no one but God to witness what they really do, pick one candidate and no others.
And actual people who have enough on the ball to register to vote and find their way to a polling place on the right day showed up and really, truly voted for Trump. They weren’t lying to pollsters just to see if they were gullible enough to believe it! You might not find this amazing because you’ve been paying attention to the day-to-day, but I take the long view. Imagine someone telling you this would happen a year ago, or 10 years ago — after all, we’ve known Trump and what he was like for a long time.
Imagine, if you can, the Founding Fathers beholding this spectacle. Can you see it in your mind’s eye? Can you? See how they’re shuddering?
This is not just the guy who has been leading in the polls all along, which makes this result seem pretty anticlimactic. If you’re thinking of it that way, you’re not thinking hard enough. Think of it this way: This is the guy who parents don’t want their kids to see on television because they don’t want their kids to know that adults can act that way, and get away with it. At least, that’s the way I thought grownups were. I was pretty embarrassed over the weekend when one of my 8-year-old twin granddaughters, on her way to bed, stopped in front of the TV while the GOP debate was on and asked what those men were doing. There was an exchange going on that involved Trump.
“They’re um… they, uh… they want to be… well, president. Ummm… Have you brushed your teeth? Better get to it!” See, that’s the kind of thing that grownups say. Not stuff like this.
This isn’t about issues. It’s about basic social behavior. It’s about the foundation of civil society. We grownups tell kids not to boast, not to bully, not to tear other people down, not to lie, not to cuss, not to talk about themselves so much. Don’t we?
Anyway, that’s one result of today’s voting. Some others:
- John Kasich is running second, so he’s got that going for him, which is nice. Maybe he’ll get some respect now, and I think he deserves some.
- Ted Cruz (who won Iowa), Marco Rubio (who won the “normal candidate” contest in Iowa) and Jeb Bush are all clumped up together — with Bush slightly in the lede as I type this! That’s with only about a quarter of the vote counted, so who knows who will really come in third? But that sets up a real contest for the non-Trump, non-Cruz field coming in to South Carolina, which is exciting. Not terribly good for Rubio, but at least Bush can feel like he managed to achieve something with all that money.
- Oh, yeah: Bernie Sanders won on the Democratic side, soundly beating Hillary Clinton, who managed to beat Barack Obama there in 2008. So, he’s for real, too. But we kinda knew that already. Hillary still has South Carolina, and if she loses here, well, she really, truly is jinxed. (Either that, or we men, determined to deny her and all those women who see themselves in her, really plotted and schemed well to keep them down. I just mention this to keep it in the mix, since some will believe it.)
And… well, that’s about it for now. In fact, I’ve probably said things there is not yet enough data to support, and I’ll look like an idiot in the morning. But this is the way it’s looking now.
Thoughts?
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For what little it may be worth, my phone received this many robo-calls PER DAY in the last 2 days from the following campaigns:
Bernie – 5 anti-establishment Socialist
Bush – 1 R.I.N.G.E.R. (Republican Imposter for NWO Global Elitest Regime)
Carson – 2 anti-establishment neurosurgeon
Christie -0 R.I.N.O. lawyer
Clinton -0 D.I.N.G.E.R. (Democrat Imposter for NWO Global Elitest Regime)
Cruz – 1 anti-establishment lawyer
Kasich – 0 proven governor
Rubio – 1 R.I.N.G.E.R. (Republican Imposter for NWO Global Elitest Regime)
Trump – 1 anti-establishment business magnate
Aditionally, supposed pollsters and surveys are calling 3 times a day, although we have not participated in telephone (or mail) surveys for at least the past 12 years. The polls are calling SC’s Dem primary for Clinton, so far.
Lindsey Graham withdrew his for name-recognition-only candidacy in December when it became clear to him that Hillary would never get the chance to nominate him as her SecDef, because she will end her candidacy by the end of April. After reaching a similar deal with Jeb, Lindsey then endorsed Bush. L.O.L.
Wow, SC sure did draw the short straw this election cycle!The state has a no-win situation ahead of it – something that somehow is perversely satisfying to many a Republican in the Palmetto State.
South Carolina is going to be the high water mark for either Trump or Cruz. In the race for the cellar, it is going to be all about these two “conservatives”. It’s the perfect marquee match-up of electoral ill-relevancy. Just the sort of muck SC loves to wallow in. Kasich, Rubio and Bush – in that order – have no traction in this evangelical vs mill-worker smackedown.
SC just doesn’t do broad unity very well; too easily distracted by tribalism. Ben Tillman would be proud.
Mark, perhaps you overestimate the number of dues-paying Republicans still in S.C. Democrats have often voted in the earlier Republican primaries like the last one, for (as Brad has described him) conservatives like Lindsey Graham. .
This Palmetto State’s Republican party is due a reality check when it learns how many rank and file voters abandon Jeb, etc.
And the fact that Trump received ~ 50% of New Hamshire’s Republican primary votes with higher percentages in every measured demographic than his rivals leaves little doubt that widespread dissatisfactions with government are bipartisan, unifying and poorly described by the “tribalism” stereotype. Otherwise, tribalism would also befit various elements of the Democratich party’s vainted “big tent”.
So now there’s this:
I will not miss her. She had this way of becoming increasingly strident when she talked about the military, like “rebuilding” the Navy was more and more critical every time she thought about it. It always reminded me of Arlo Guthrie spiraling up when singing (or chanting?) “And I started jumpin’ up and down, yellin’ “KILL! KILL!” and he started Jumpin’ up and down with me, and we was both jumpin’ up and down, yellin’,
“KILL! KILL! KILL! KILL!” and the sergeant came over, pinned a medal on me,
Sent me down the hall, said “You’re our boy”.
Except unlike Arlo Guthrie you got the feeling Carly Fiorina WOULD feel good about that. No thanks!
Well, we DO need to rebuild the Navy…
What we need is some sort of incident in Nootka Sound, involving the Spanish. That’s what got the British navy rebuilt at a critical moment, just before they needed it to deal with Napoleon…