Who will run to back Fred Thompson
if he comes to S.C.?
By Brad Warthen
Editorial Page Editor
STATE SEN. Larry Grooms looked like a very influential man Thursday. On Wednesday, he had led a small band of Republicans in calling on Fred Thompson — the lawyer, lobbyist, star of screens both large and small and former U.S. senator from Tennessee — to run for president.
The next day, the lead story in USA Today said “the former Tennessee senator not only makes it clear that he plans to run, he describes how he aims to do it. He’s planning a campaign that will use blogs, video posts and other Internet innovations to reach voters repelled by politics-as-usual in both parties.”
But beyond cliches and pizzazz, what attracts some Republicans to Mr. Thompson?
Specifically, what causes somebody like Larry Grooms to reject John McCain — whom he and a lot of others had seen as the alternative to “politics-as-usual” not so long ago?
“I like Fred Thompson better,” said Mr. Grooms.
OK, but why — particularly when you consider that he first met ex-Sen. Thompson in 2000 on the “Straight-Talk Express,” both of them supporting Sen. McCain in his doomed S.C. campaign against George W. Bush?
What’s Fred Thompson got that the other 10 or 11 lack? Mr. Grooms had a very unwonkish answer to that: “He commands respect when he walks in a room.”
In what way? “It might be that he’s very tall or large, but he bears that well.” Also, “When I rode the bus with him campaigning for McCain, he seemed to be the same man in front of crowds and in person.”
Turning more to substance, he said the Tennessean was a solid conservative: “I don’t see a single issue where he’s wavered.”
He suggested Sen. McCain and South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham have lost support by striking deals with Democrats.
“You can’t ignore the other side, but you have to deliver,” Sen. Grooms said — meaning “deliver” in pleasing the base rather than necessarily passing legislation.
He said a President Thompson would be tough on immigration, promote limited government and lower taxes and be “an effective commander in chief.”
On that last point, wouldn’t a President McCain also qualify? Certainly — so would Rudy Giuliani, but on social issues, forget it.
And McCain suffers from “guilt by association” with Ted Kennedy and Dianne Feinstein on immigration.
Mr. Grooms says there are others out there like him — or there will be: “There are some people with McCain right now who say as soon as Fred makes his move, I’m with him.”
He said some are waiting to meet the man. Sen. Grooms, for one, has interviewed all the GOP candidates (it helps that they’ve actually been here, unlike Mr. Thompson, whom I haven’t seen since 2000).
But Bob McAlister — a paid consultant to the McCain campaign — says the Grooms position is rare, among both McCainiacs from 2000 and those who were for rival Bush back then. (Mr. McAlister, former chief of staff to the late Gov. Carroll Campbell, is of the latter category.)
“John McCain has far more Bushies supporting him than Fred Thompson will ever have (former) John McCain supporters supporting him,” Mr. McAlister said. He might have a lot of media flash, but Mr. McAlister believes in the McCain ground game. “John McCain has locked down the human infrastructure that propelled George Bush to victory in 2000.”
Another McCain consultant, Richard Quinn, says that while Mr. Thompson will be “the flavor of the month for a while,” McCain’s polling has remained steady, without “spikes and falls,” and he expects it to remain that way.
“Larry is a good friend, and I met Senator Thompson in 2000 as well. I like him. He’s a very engaging person,” he said. But “I feel very comfortable about where John McCain is in South Carolina.”
(Mr. Quinn had called specifically to dismiss the Winthrop University poll, which showed Rudy Giuliani edging out Sen. McCain, as an indicator of what will happen. Nothing against Winthrop — “I love college professors” — but it was based on random calling, with only about 260 self-identified likely Republican voters. For predictions, he prefers something based on actual regular GOP primary voters, such as the poll released last week by American Research Group, which showed a 9-point McCain lead.)
He stresses two strong points: Sen. McCain is “the most consistently conservative candidate who can win in November,” and the “best qualified to lead our nation in the war on terror.”
But what about someone who isn’t paid to say those things? Former Richland County Councilman Jim Tuten worked in the McCain campaign in 2000, and he’s still on board. As for some of the conservatives who are mad at him or Sen. Graham (“a great statesman” according to Mr. Tuten) over immigration or some other issue, “A lot of people who state those positions don’t really understand those issues or have any background on those issues.” Besides, as he learned on County Council, in order to govern, “You have to give a little to get a little.”
True. Unfortunately for Sen. McCain, primaries are seldom about governing. Still, whom does a Thompson candidacy hurt — Sen. McCain, whom many avowed “conservatives” already reject, or the rivals who seek to take advantage of that, such as Mitt Romney? I’m thinking the latter.
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Brad – Did you know that Jim Tuten’s son is employed by Senator Graham?
Personally I have long been eager to believe Fred Thompson will get in the race and I am likely to the right ogf the man in my views. I would vote for John Bolton if he could make the ticket. Fred Thompson has a better view of hwat may come in regards to foreign policy in terms of the DPRK,China and Russia than Mr. Romney. Rudy is just to fluffy cakes to me. Once upon a time I could have supported McCain but that time has long since past. Doubting the Mr. Bolten could make a ticket,, I am counting on Thompson and maybe Newt to kick some Clinton tail.
McCain is an amazing leader and obviously the most qualified for the job, but in America that isn’t how it works. Bush got elected because I could sit down, drink a beer and have fun. Kerry and Algore, Rove portrayed as grumpy old men. Thomson is the candidate most suited for drinking a beer with the average citizen. It’s sad, but Americans elect presidents on personality, not qualifications. Luckily, Thomson does have some experience.
I’d love to have a job where I was paid to make stuff up like a political consultant. What a country! Wonder what they’d say if they weren’t on the payroll?
McCain MIGHT win South Carolina if South Carolina was the first primary. He won’t win Iowa or New Hampshire and will be looking for his own personal “exit strategy” by February. If Florida moves up its primary, winning South Carolina won’t mean anything. He had his shot in 2000. He’s too old, too out of touch with conservatives, too closely linked to Kennedy, and 100% wrong on immigration and Iraq.
Thompson will get in, but in my opinion, his candidacy won’t go anywhere– he’s peaked already. He’s a good actor, but his track record is not that impressive. Even in this day and age of shallow TV sound bites, I don’t think acting alone is enough.
McCain seems lost to me– like his political consultants have him totally befuddled.
The best news for the republicans is that Hillary’s numbers continue to climb.
One other quick point…I’m no statistician, but regarding the poll that you let Rick Quinn dimsiss…it’s best to look at the aggregate of many polls, not just any one poll. And you can do just that at pollster.com or other several other political blogs and news sites.
Pollster.com will show you that the Winthrop poll reflects the trend of several other polls indicating McCain dropping fast. The anomoly appears to be the American Research poll Quinn is so fond of citing.
Check it out and let us kow what you think. To me it looks like you fell victim to Quinn’s “spin,” and that Quinn has earned his day’s pay as McCain’s consultant.
I don’t see how anything helps Romney. The big problem Republicans have with Romney is that he is a total phoney. He was to the left of Ted Kennedy a few years ago, and now changes his spots so he can become a “conservative”. I don’t think very many people buy it. To a lesser extent the same is true with McCain. The thing about Rudy is that he is consistent. He hasn’t changed his spots. He is what he is, and if winning the Terror War is your highest priority, Rudy looks pretty good. As for the comment about McCain being “qualified” to run the government, I don’t buy that either. Senators only run a small office. Running a large organization is a hell of a lot different from being a senator. Remember what happened when Porter Goss was promoted from the House to run the CIA. Again, of the current GOP field, Rudy is the most qualified here. On the Dem side, Hillary is the only one who ran things as First Lady, and knows how things are done. Thompson and Newt have the attraction of being real conservatives across the board, unlike Rudy. However, neither has actually ran a large organization. I would forsee either as a good Veep for Rudy.
The question is, will people be voting for Frank Thompson the politician (and exactly what is his track record like?), or will they be voting for Law and Order’s fearless, and invariably right, D.A.? And will the average voter discern the difference?
A follow up to Mark G.’s point. Statistically speaking McCain’s support is falling like a rock. He may be doing well in some of the early battle ground states but his money will likely dry up if the national polling continues. Against all the top Dem candidates McCain is slipping as well. Only against Al Gore does he have a small lead. Republican voters have to be concerned that McCain’s strong pro-war stance will cost him voters come general election day. That could frighten off would-be primary voters.
McCain’s best shot is to garner a large majority of the voters who have been asleep since the 2000 primary season and haven’t seen this ghastly shell of a man making a fool of himself.
Sand Hill — no, I didn’t (know about the son’s job). I ended up talking to Jim Tuten because I was just looking for names from stories in 2000 of people who had backed McCain strongly, and ran across Tuten’s. I figured I’d call him because he was somebody who was relatively out of the picture, and also because I remember him as a straightforward kind of guy who would be up-front about it if he, too, were pulling away from McCain. Probably the first time I talked to him since he last ran opposed for County Council.
Whatever his son does, I believe he really thinks what he said.
I wanted to talk to more people I could identify as being where Grooms was. But as he says, most of them are waiting before coming out.
Unfortunately, I wasted a lot of time trying to reach Gresham Barrett, who didn’t call me back until hours after I was done with the newspaper version of the column. I decided to use his comments in a blog post, which I’m going to try to do later tonight. I would have written it earlier, but I’ve been on the road and just got in a few minutes ago.
Here’s another cool thing I learned about Fred when I was looking up links for this column. We both have the same alma mater — Memphis State (which is now called University of Memphis, but not when he and I were there).
That’s something I’m not used to. Presidential candidates are generally from Harvard or Yale, it seems. And yet Fred’s a Tiger like me. How about that? Talk about your regular guys…
John Edwards earned his undergrad degree from NC State and his JD from NC Chapel Hill.
But, I guess he’s not as “regular” as a multi-millionare lobbyist/teevee actor.
I am gradually learning not to be surprised at your ignorance, Brad. I’ll never get over being appalled, though.
Three points, RTH:
— I did not go to N.C. State, so that would not make an impression on me.
— Surely you’re not attaching importance to my noting that for the first time in my memory, someone from my alma mater is running (sorta kinda) for president. I’m certainly not.
— When it comes to pedestrian degrees, I’ll stack up Memphis State against N.C. State any day. A perverse sort of pride, perhaps, but it’s still a sort of pride.
Fred Thompson and Colin Powell. I have been calling that ticket since 2004. Glad to see Ozmint off the hot seat…he’s a good man, hard headed, but a good person.
Brad – Scott Rasmussen’s weekly poll numbers make it look like Thompson is hurting everyone about equally:
Giuliani 23% (down 2)
Thompson 17% (up 5)
Romney 15% (down 1)
McCain 14% (down 1)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary
Today’s a sad day for Fred Thompson.
His pal and fellow Rethuglican was sentenced to 30 months for lying and obstructing the investigation into outing a covert CIA agent.
U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton implicitly implicitly threw Thompson’s partisan defense of of Libby in the trash can.
IOW, Walton agreed with Special Counsel Fitzgerald’s sentencing memo which demolished Thompson’s repetition of the right wing talking points in a recent speech.
Thompson is even on the Advisory Board of the Scooter Libby Legal Defense Trust.
Maybe he’ll do the same for Al Gonzales when his time comes. After all, Thompson has reportedly been talking to newly appointed/resigned US Attorney Timothy Griffin. Griffin, a Karl Rove dirty-trickster, reportedly violated a court order for the GOP not to suppress African-American votes.
Thompson could score a trifecta if he could find some way to connect his campaign to the deceptions that led up to invading Iraq.
With political instincts like that, he’d better hire the script writers from Law and Order.