Well, I had seen the WSJ/NBC poll showing a dead heat, and the Winthrop/ETV poll showing McCain with a big lead in the South (big surprise, huh?), but having fallen behind in my e-mail, I had missed this until Kathleen Parker’s latest column brought it to my attention:
Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama – Video Commentary By John Zogby Available Now
Obama loses ground among Dems, women, Catholics & even younger voters
UTICA, New York – As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling – Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.
McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.
And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.
This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.
That’s according to Zogby.
Do you find this surprising? I did.
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Maybe you haven’t heard – we elect our president using the electoral college and not popular vote.
Whoever wins three out of five of Florida/Ohio/Missouri/Virginia/Colorado will be president. The rest of the races won’t matter a bit.
Don’t tell the Democrats about the electoral college thing; it will upset them.
Seriously, yes, I know that, Doug. And when I see a poll done of battleground states, state by state, I’ll pass it on.
In the meantime, this seemed interesting — and a lot more relevant than national polls were back during the primary process. As you may recall, I scoffed at them pretty loudly. The national media’s incessant trumpeting of meaningless national polls late in 2007 really distorted the race. On the Democratic side, it essentially killed the candidacies of Biden and the rest, by constantly going on about Obama and Hillary. On the Republican side, they kept Rudy alive a LOT longer than if they’d been looking at the early primary states.
But as I say, now that all that’s over, until I see a good study done of the battleground states (have you seen one recently), I will take some interest in these national polls.
I didn’t find it too surprising. Not sure who will win still, and I haven’t been since these two became the clear candidates.
No surprise about the South – its home to most of the Christian fundamentalist movement. Although they are not thrilled with McCain, he’s made clear he wants their support and has campaigned for their votes. Also, they don’t have much of a choice now.
McCain also appeals to the other right-leaning voters in the South. These are the people who elected Hodges over Beasley in SC in 1998. They don’t want the “Christian right” in power, but the general Republican platform is in line with their views. If Huckabee was the candidate, they would have been divided. However, McCain definitely fits the bill for them.
As far as Georgia goes, using “harsh words” against the Russians doesn’t say anything about whether either candidate would actually get involved. Speaking of harsh words, Obama has been more hawkish on Pakistan than anybody – they’ve been our supposed “ally” in the war on terror under the Bush administration – despite evidence to the contrary.
If one of our allies was invaded by a major rival, would we do anything? That’s the question. The Russians have used this opportunity to “test” us. We’ve finished the agreement to put missile-defense in Poland, and they’ve issued a threat to Poland. If the Russians were to invade Poland, would we respond immediately, to protect our ally? Or would we sit around and say we didn’t want to “mettle in their affairs”? That’s a question I have for both candidates.
Sec. of State Rice has impressed me on how well she’s dealt with this situation in Georgia. Setting a timetable with the Iraqis was also positive. Previously, I haven’t had a good impression of her at all – as far as foreign policy, she just seemed to be following the Bush administration’s bungled policy. That’s how we got into this mess to begin with, and that’s why Powell resigned before her.
The great foreign policy achievements of our post-WWII presidencies were the result of the work of well-chosen Secretaries of State given the power to do their job by the President – Byrnes and Acheson under Truman, Dulles under Eisenhower, Kissinger under Nixon/Ford, Shultz under Reagan and Albright under Clinton. Who will McCain or Obama appoint, and will they give them the freedom to do their job?
Punditry and talking heads have said from the beginning that this race was Obamas’ to lose. His spectacular (I mean literally: This thing was pure spectacle) two week European photo op and his continuing series of gaffs, fumbles and waffles have combined to convince increasing numbers of people to get off the Obama train.
The surprise to me is not that Obama has fallen behind. It’s how long it has taken.
I can only hope for continued volatility in world oil markets and further economic turmoil at home. The more opportunities we get for Obama to make tire pressure recommendations and advocate higher taxes, the better.
It’s his to lose indeed.
David
I agree about the “Don’t tell the Democrats about the electoral college thing; it will upset them.” And I’m sure the reverse would be true if it happened to the Republicans! Hehe. When the system doesn’t work in your favor you’re against it.
I don’t really understand the point of the electoral college system in this day and age though. I’ve heard a lot of the constitutional arguments in favor of it and I can see where they’re coming from… But to me, it really all boils down to the fact that I STILL think it’s an antiquated system from a different era – an era in which votes were harder to count, and an era before our modern concept of democracy. Until about 85 years ago, the “winner-takes-all” policy didn’t always apply – electors in quite a few states voted differently.
The constitutional argument that the electoral college works against the “tyranny of the majority” doesn’t wash with me. Before the Civil War, slaves who couldn’t vote counted as 3/5 a citizen for Southern states in determining the number of electors for Southern states. Women, who couldn’t vote until 1920, were still counted as citizens of their respective state to determine the number of electors for that state. White males who didn’t own property couldn’t vote nationwide until 1870; they were counted as citizens of their states too. In earlier days, Catholics and Jews could forget about voting too. When Washington won the presidency, only 6% of citizens could vote!
Andrew Jackson argued vehemently against the electoral college system 175 years ago. It was a legacy of the disproportionate representation of the British Parliament at the time our Constitution was written. “Tyranny of the majority” was really about keeping the “inferior” people from having their votes count.
We’ve reformed the system to give everybody an equal right to vote today, in theory. But, as far as the presidency, it just keeps the minority in individual states out of the race, because their vote won’t count. Candidates pander to “blocks” of voters in a few key states where the race is close. The rest of us – we are just “red” and “blue” states. Republicans in Vermont or Democrats in South Carolina aren’t going to matter to those party candidates because they are guaranteed to lose those states.
I think it’s definitely time to ditch the electoral college somehow, yet still adhere to Article II of the Constitution.
I was surprised that McCain was even close given the overwhelming boost Obama’s received from the mainstream media. I’ve read that at this time four years ago Kerry led Bush by 15 points. I’ve also read that the good news for McCain is that one poll had him ahead by five, the bad news was that it was Zogby’s.
Right now Obama seems to be underperforming the brand, but most folks say he’ll get a big boost with next week’s convention.
For those who like to go crazy, this site ties polls to electoral votes in its assessment, and you can go to the details by just clicking on a state on the map.
For the really avid, this site has all the gory details and highlights the battleground states.
On Dave’s remarks, I’ll add that Obama advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski took a hard line after the Russians invaded Georgia. Earlier, however, in a 7/4/2008 interview with the Russian news agency Interfax, he’d said that Ukraine’s and Georgia’s possible accession to NATO was not a threat to Russia; NATO expansion was a part of EU expansion, and it was no longer an alliance against Moscow and the Soviet Union. He said that opposing this [NATO membership for the Ukraine and Georgia] and perceiving this as a hostile act reflects the Kremlin’s nostalgia for its imperial dominance of these countries in the past.
Of course, then Putin showed his nostalgia for imperial dominance, proving Zbiggy correct in his analysis but wrong in assessing intent, again.
The main point of that interview, however, was that Zbig told the Russkies the Dems were going to be in charge and they were quite skeptical of the whole missile defense program.
I’ll add only that for reasons that I have never understood, most Democrats have been and remain against missile defense. So I conclude that if they get their way, the Poles will have the rug pulled out from under them, giving new meaning to the phrase “Polish joke.”
I think alot of women who wanted Hillary are going to vote for McCain—I know that I am,and Obama aint got what it takes to lead this country!Bush has screwed us over royally so we need to get out of the hole,not deeper in!!!
“Bush has screwed us over royally so we need to get out of the hole,not deeper in!!!”
Are you saying that a vote for McCain couldn’t possibly extend any of Bush’s policies that are treating us so “royally” at this time?
Rasmussen seems to be the best polling organization. They show McCain gaining but still a tad behind. In the electorial college race Obama has a 10 vote lead but less than the 270 needed to win. It’s a tight race that anyone can win.
Indeed the dems always seem to have big leads in the summer only to lose ground down the stretch. As dispicable as they are at ruining, I mean running, the country the GOP is brilliant at campaigning. The silly McCain ads resinate for some reason with many voters.
Obama has a good issue now with the economy in shambles. Just continue to use McCain’s and Gramm’s words against them. Ad after ad should show McCain suggesting the middle class starts at $5 million, Gramm saying people who have lost their houses are whiners and, best of all, that McCain doesn’t know how many houses he owns. Is all this silly? Absolutely. But it’s necessary to counter the ridiculous, yet effective, claims made by the GOP spinmeisters. Hold onto your hats folks, this election season is going to be fun to watch.
I was surprised that McCain was even close given the overwhelming boost Obama’s received from the mainstream media.
-Mike
This is all part of the right-wing mantra. Continue to feign surprise that McCain is doing well EVEN THOUGH THE MSM SIDES WITH OBAMA. That is so ridiculous. The MSM has allowed the McCain maverick mantel to go unchallenged while butressing the GOP claim that Obama is somehow different, dangerous and inexperienced. The GOP is really good at making their attack points stick but they couldn’t did it without their willing accomplices in the MSM.
Go read Cokie Roberts attack on Obama for his vacation in Hawaii. She made it look like Obama was going to a foreign country. Obama grew up in Hawaii and has friends and family there so why is that any kind of an issue? Heck, he could have gone to Florida to try and win some votes but in a genuine attempt to take a break he went to Hawaii to spend time with his family. Just goes to show no good deed goes unpunished.
Its waaay too early to call. Things happen. Things are said. After all, how many houses do you own?
Typical Rebublican campaign strategy, dating back to President Nixon’s election has relied on using whatever means necessary to “build the negatives” of their opponent. It has been somewhat successful in every presidential election since. The McCain campaign has largely relied on that tactic plus a large dose of fear and outright lying about Obama’s positions. Brace yourself for both “authorized” and surrogate nastiness. It works, but it is wrong for the country. My hope is that it will be rejected this time.
Here’s a site fivethirtyeight.com that takes a more scientific approach to reading the electoral polls.
I agree with those who say the electoral college system is anachronistic, although I think Maine and Nebraska do it better than the rest of the states. They allow their electoral votes to be divided among the candidates according to results within each Congressional district and two at large electors. Such a system still protects the voting rights of small states, but allows Democrats in South Carolina and Republicans in Vermont (referencing Dave’s post) to feel their votes in a national election are being counted.
I thought a couple of states might still be able to “in theory” divide their elector votes, but I wasn’t aware that Maine and Nebraska still divided their electoral votes – guess I learned something new today. Thanks, Norm!
Kathy, I don’t understand why you think McCain is preferable to Obama or what Obama did towards Clinton.
I know a couple of my fellow gay males who backed Hillary Clinton 100%, and now they plan to vote for McCain over Obama. Their reasoning is because Obama hasn’t shown that he supports the gay community. I find that pretty weak… Just because he hasn’t pandered to gay groups as Hillary did! McCain supports gay rights as much as Obama supports the Southern Baptists. Also, I think basing a vote entirely on gay activis is stupid. There are plenty of other fish to fry in this election!
The whole McCain’s Many Mansions thing is just stupid. But, he started the negative campaigning by making Obama look like Paris Hilton’s “BFF”, waiting for his E reality show… That’s all a part of the reality of politics anyway.
Kathy,
You’re a woman. How do you feel about a man who left his totally dedicated wife for a younger, wealthier woman? Or…how do you feel about a man who publically called his wife a “C-word”.
You can tell a lot about a man by how he treats a woman. McCain has no respect for a woman. That’s all you need to know about him.
Amazing, bud, that you seem to say above that Rasmussen is the most reliable poll because it shows Obama ahead.
By that logic, I think the Zogby poll is more reliable, because I can’t imagine a majority of Americans actually voting for Obama.
P.M. that was not meant as a partisan plug. Rasmussen was the most accurate polling organization in the country the last 2 presidential elections. Their polling doesn’t have the same radical fluctuations that others have. In general Rasmussen is fairly balanced politically with articles from both sides. The current Rasmussen polls indicate a close race with McCain coming on fast but still a couple of points behind.
Zogby, on the other hand, has been all over the place in it’s polls. Whenever numbers fluctuate so much that shows some type of polling problems.
The bottom line here is that Obama is a SOCIALIST. He believes in the redistribution of wealth, socialized medicine,ever expanding social welfare programs. healthcare for all – even the illegals that are now here etc etc etc.
We are already drowning in Chinese financed debt and Obama wants even more deficit spending for even more “entitlements.” Bush and the Republicans have tried to out Democrat the Democrats with their social spending and have gotten us into the mess we now find ourselves. Why do you think that the Wall Street crowd is giving more to Obama that McCain? It is because there are so many business interests that are tied to the government spending tit for their survival. Also to keep the unemployment figures down we are now handing out government jobs to the laid off private sector workers instead of welfare checks. This house of cards that was built upon the FDR deficit spending , entitlement blueprint will fall. However it will be the average PRIAVTELY employed workers that will suffer the consequences.
Obama doesn’t like America.
Did you hear last week’s speech where he claimed China was a better place to locate buinesses because “it’s infrastructure is superior to America’s”. He is a know-nothing who appeals to academics, welfare abusers, and children.