My predictions

Here are my predictions as to what I think will happen on the contested races that we dealt with in our endorsements. As always, endorsements are about who should win, not who will win. To fill that vacuum — and to help you see the difference — here are my prognostications (in which I place far less faith, because they are not nearly as carefully considered):

  • Obama will win the presidential election — the real one (electoral college, with at least 300 electors) as well as the popular vote. He’ll win it decisively enough that we’ll know by midnight. BUT McCain will win in South Carolina, probably 55-45. We endorsed McCain.
  • Lindsey Graham will easily win re-election. No prediction on the numbers; I have no idea. In fact, I’m only doing numbers on the presidential, because I really have no idea on any others. We endorsed Graham.
  • Joe Wilson will win against Rob Miller, but it will be close. We endorsed Wilson.
  • Jim Clyburn will have a blowout victory over his GOP opponent. We endorsed Clyburn.
  • John Spratt will win with a margin somewhere between Wilson’s and Clyburn’s. We endorsed Spratt.
  • Nikki Setzler will survive the challenge from Margaret Gamble, and thanks to the Obama Effect, it will be the first time it helped him to be a Democrat in 20 years. We endorsed Setzler.
  • Anton Gunn will beat David Herndon, but it will be fairly close. We endorsed Gunn.
  • Joe McEachern will cruise to victory over Michael Koska. We endorsed Koska.
  • Chip Huggins will roll right over Jim Nelson, who will NOT benefit appreciably from the Obama Effect. We endorsed Nelson.
  • Nikki Haley will win big, again in spite of Obama. We endorsed Ms. Haley.
  • Harry Harmon will again be Lexington County coroner. We endorsed Harmon, although we again made the point that this should NOT be an elective office.
  • Elise Partin will — I hope I hope — win the Cayce mayor’s office (this is the one I have the LEAST feel for, since we’ve never endorsed for this office before). We endorsed Ms. Partin.
  • Gwen Kennedy, despite being best known for a Hawaiian junket the last time she was on Richland County council, will ride the Obama Effect to victory over Celestine White Parker. We endorsed Ms. Parker.
  • Mike Montgomery should prevail (note my hesitation) over challenger Jim Manning, who seems to be running as much as anything because he felt like there should be a Democrat in the race with Obama running. We endorsed Montgomery.

Oh, and Ted Pitts will roll to victory over his last-second UnParty challenger. We didn’t endorse in this one, but if we had, we would have endorsed Ted.

13 thoughts on “My predictions

  1. Ozzie

    I’m surprised that PA was called so early for Obama. That suggests a bigger victory for him than the polls were suggesting.

  2. Randy E

    BIG BIG victories in KEY counties for Obama in Florida and Indiana.
    McCain can only lose one of the following: Indiana, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Neveda, North Carolina, Montana. Ain’t gonna happen cap’n.

  3. CottonMoneyReignIsOver

    “We?” The majority of State Newspaper employees support Senator Obama openly. I think that “They” endorsed Obama, and You endorsed McCain.

  4. Brad Warthen

    Ah. I’m afraid you’re mistaken on that point. I made fun earlier of candidates saying “we” when they mean “I,” but there’s one thing I’m quite sure of, and that’s when I’m speaking for the newspaper — when, in other words, I am justified in using the editorial “we.”

    My job — my real job, not my alternative identity as a blogger — is to preside over the editorial board, and it is the editorial board that determines whom “we” endorse. Sorry to be stuffy about it, old boy, but I’m quite certain we did endorse McCain.

    You make vague reference — if I’m understanding you correctly — to what some individuals employed by this newspaper may have communicated to you, or something you have arrived at by wild surmise, or something in between. Doesn’t matter. What those individuals do or don’t prefer is neither here nor there, if they are not members of the editorial board. And I know exactly what the board members think. So do you, if you read the paper. I told you what the publisher thinks, and what I think. Warren told you what he thinks. Cindi expressed her indecision. That’s that.

  5. CottonMoneyReignIsOver

    (Blush) I’m more of a young woman, than an old boy. But, I DO honestly appreciate you clarifying “We” Mr. Warthen.
    I hope that President Obama, exceeds your expectations in a most positive way, and that your readers get to see that in your writing going forward.
    Thanks again for the clarity. 😉

  6. Lee Muller

    Let’s have a thread topic of predictions about what we think an Obama-Pelosi-Reid regime will try to legislate on America.
    It would be interesting to come back 2 years later, if they win, and see who was right, and who will admit they were wrong.
    I will even archive the thread, since THE STATE may not be around.

  7. bob

    The city of Philadelphia,PA had nearly as many votes for Obama as did the entre State of SC. Good luck pulling yourself out of your libertrarian depression considering your ill reasoned political choices.

  8. Brad Warthen

    Here’s a potential surprise in the making, and the first of my predictions to be wrong, if the trend continues. I see that with 19 of 22 precincts reporting, David Herndon is leading Anton Gunn, 54 percent to 46 percent.
    It occurs to me that I may have placed too much emphasis on the Obama Effect, whereas in S.C., we should consider the possibility of a McCain Effect — at least, outside Richland County. And a goodly chunk of that district is in Kershaw.
    Actually, what we could be seeing is just a matter of the district’s demographics; I’m not sure. The district has been Republican, but moderately Republican, resending Bill Cotty until his retirement this year. And Mr. Herndon, who was endorsed by Mr. Cotty, has positioned himself as a moderate, defeating one of the school choice movement’s fire-eaters in the primary. We’ve heard a lot about the district tending Democratic, even while Cotty still had it, but perhaps that has been inaccurate.
    But if Anton Gunn loses, it still surprises me. He was probably the most impressive legislative candidate I saw this year, and Mr. Herndon was about what you expect from an earnest first-timer. Nice guy, but not nearly as thoughtful or insightful about issues, and not nearly the talker. That’s what makes me think in terms of the partisan proclivities of the district, rather than anything about the candidates themselves…


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