Greg Flowers is getting me into trouble, and I’m helping him do it. Back on a previous post, Greg issued this challenge:
Brad, you obviously don’t think Bauer is a sharp guy (neither do I). This leads to an interesting question. You have had (I believe) the opportunity to interact with all ten of the announced candidates for Governor. How would you rank them in terms of raw smarts (squishy term that that is)? Ranking in tiers will be fine. This has nothing to do with policy agreement, just mental horsepower.
And now I’m rising, foolishly, to the challenge — even though it feels, in Huck Finn’s immortal words, like… well, here’s how Huck put it:
Well, I says to myself at last, I’m agoing to chance it; I’ll up and tell the truth this time, though it does seem most like setting down on a keg of powder and touching it off just to see where you’ll go to.
I really hesitate to publish this, because some of the subjects will take offense, and I don’t really intend to hurt anybody’s feelings. It’s just that if you draw a curve, some people are going to be on the lower end. They may be brighter than average (then again, they may not), but in this list, they’re on the lower end.
And I know I will catch hell from Republicans because the top end is heavy with Democrats. Console yourselves with the knowledge that with at least two out of the three in that top category, their cerebral personae will probably not be a help to them. On the campaign trail, I’d much rather have Henry McMaster’s regular-folks image than Jim Rex’s professorial demeanor. Also, note that I’m leaving Charleston Pastor Amos Elliott off the list, because I know absolutely zip about him, and have not formed an impression at all. There are a couple of others here with whom my contacts have been limited, but he’s the only one recently listed in The State who I’m not even attempting to rank.
I’m going to allow myself the little out that Greg offered and put them in tiers, and alphabetically within those tiers. Anyway, here are my tiers:
Upper Tier
- Dwight Drake — Of the three in this category, Dwight is the one who I think will benefit most from his smarts. That’s because he has street smarts, not just the academic kind.
- Jim Rex — Very professorial, as I said above. Which stands to reason, given his background. Very thoughtful, very earnest. And it remains to be seen whether he can connect with voters. Yes, he’s won a statewide race, but that time he was the anti-Karen Floyd. I don’t sense that it was because he hit a chord that resonated with regular folk.
- Vincent Sheheen — Also very thoughtful, very earnest — and perhaps too low-key to be successful. That’s one reason Dick Harpootlian pushed Dwight to get in the race. It was interesting that Vincent came out swinging the way he did on Dwight when he announced, but so far Vincent still has that image that you respect — intellectually and personally — but you don’t know whether his good qualities will help him connect with the voters who don’t yet know him.
Middle Tier
- Nikki Haley — Nikki is very bright and has a lot of wonderful qualities — courage, resourcefulness, integrity — but she doesn’t go terribly deep on issues. Her analysis tends to be fairly superficial. So that lack of a professorial quality (or the kind of craftiness of a Dwight Drake) kept her out of the top tier, although it may help her get elected, if she can shake off the Sanford taint.
- Mullins McLeod — Probably a really smart guy — he is a lawyer, after all — but it hasn’t showed so far. In fact, he hasn’t shown nearly as much original thinking as Nikki has. I haven’t been as exposed to him as much as to some of these others, but what I’ve seen has not impressed.
- Henry McMaster — Also a pretty smart guy — another lawyer — and one who is very often right on the issues, but not an ivory-tower intellectual in any sense. More of a down-to-earth, common-sense kind of guy. That Common Man persona roots him firmly in the middle tier, and will likely help him.
Lower Tier
- Gresham Barrett — This will probably rankle. After all, the man is a member of Congress. But he hasn’t shown me anything that makes me think he’s really thinking about issues at all. Maybe he’s smarter than this, but he’s not showing it.
- Andre Bauer — Andre’s such a hard worker, and he means well by his lights, so he is going to perform higher than his tier would suggest. And he will tell you that he’s no great intellectual, just a regular guy who wants to serve, and will bust his gut trying. And that has served him VERY well in past elections.
- Robert Ford — Can’t say I know Sen. Ford personally that well. Not even sure he’d know who I am. But the policy positions he takes are some of the dumbest I’ve ever run across. It’s almost like a signature trait with him. I don’t think he’s shooting for the dumbest ideas, but he’s shooting for the biggest splash he can get, and there’s often a strong correlation between those categories.
- Larry Grooms — Another guy I don’t know too well. The only time I’ve had an extended conversation with him was when he was one of the most prominent Republicans pushing for Fred Thompson to get into the ’08 contest. I wasn’t impressed with his reasoning.
OK, now that I’ve gotten a lot of people mad at me, I ask you to calm down for a moment and consider: I’m not trying to dismiss anybody here. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that a candidate from the lower tier will be the nominee of a major party (specifically, either Barrett or Bauer). It would be better for this state if we had a candidate from the upper tier running against a candidate of the middle one, but you can’t always get what you want.
Also, I’m not saying here that Democrats are smarter than Republicans. In fact, I am so loathe to give that impression that as I type this I’m hesitating to push the PUBLISH button. I really, really wanted it to work out so that the top tier was balanced. But my honest assessment of these candidates doesn’t lead me there. Let me note that if I had done this four years ago, the Republicans would have been in the top tier, and no Democrat would have ranked higher than the middle. But that was then; we have a different field with different capabilities this time.
Nor am I saying the top-tier people are necessarily stronger candidates, or would be better governors. Sometime a mid-ranked person with the right values who works hard is the best candidate. (And I find myself on a personal level really wanting to put either Nikki or Henry in the top tier, because they are fine, bright folks — but I honestly don’t think they are quite as pointy-headed as the three I have there. Not to cast aspersions on the pointy-headed, either.)
Most of all, think of this as a conversation-starter. Talk me out of my assessments, if I’m wrong.
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You are a brave man and I enjoyed this immensely. Not saying where I stand on your assessment.
A
Wow. You have come a long way since your days at The State. This was an interesting assessment. It appears you only rated raw intelligence here. What about adding the character, honesty and integrity elements? I do not think your tiers would remain the same.
Also, the really smart politicians like to give the impression they’re not.
I KNEW you’d rise to the bait, so I was waiting. I mostly agree, except for this: Henry McMaster belongs in the lower tier, with Gresham Barrett. They are cut from the same cloth. And what are you thinking ranking Dwight Drake above Jim Rex? One is a player and the other a statesman.
But you’re right not to put any of the Republicans in the top tier. Half of them are Sanford wanna-be’s and the other half have no real idea what they stand for. The Sanford legacy is a rudderless party.
We need someone take the damn flag down and get this state out of the late night comedy sketches!
Any of the above that can do that has my vote.
Which of the candidates would you trust to invest your father’s money?
Which of the candidates would you trust to drive your daughter to Pennsylvania?
Which of the candidates would you let babysit your grandbabies?
Which of the candidates would you want to work for as a speechwriter?
Thanks for rising to the challenge. All of your caveats are well taken. This was not supposed to ascertain the best candidate.
As someone who generally votes Republican I would agree that the top three Republican candidates are not a strong lot. I would place McMaster lower than you do. I don’t know enough about Grooms to say anything one way or the other.
I might have Haley replace Sheheen on the top tier, however both seem to be mentally creative and to have intellectual curiosity.
What you said about Rex is spot on, I think he will be sorry he left Education.
Drake is super smart in a practical sense. He has a lot of negatives (lobbying clients not least among them) which I think will keep him from winning the primary.
Yes, this is intended as a conversation starter and I hope no one takes it personally or as anything other than honest opinion.
You are a brave man for doing it. Thanks.
Seems pretty accurate to me. A couple of points:
1.I have met plenty of lawyers who I couldn’t how they got into college much less through law school and passed the bar (everyone isn’t a prominent legislator’s daughter–about whom I know nothing except that she passed on a fiddle).
2. I like that you recognize that smart is nice to have but doesn’t necessarily line up all that well with likelihood of winning or likelihood of being effective in office. Hard work will trump brains pretty much in every situation (nuclear physics even needs scientists who do the work—crunch the numbers).
re: Doug’s queries:
Do we really know a lot of what we *think* we know about the candidates’ “character”? I know I wasn’t the only one blindsided by Sanford’s trip Down Argentine Way. Another candidate is quite the fine upstanding family man-moralist, except that I have a friend who swears she and others “dated” him after he was married.
I’d surely trust Nikki Haley alone with my daughter (if I had one) or my grandbabies, but I’m not as sure about some of her financial ideas.
I would trust Dwight Drake to invest my father’s money, if only because his law firm has great malpractice insurance and plenty of assets to go after if need be. Jim Rex or Vince Sheheen might be great to write speeches for, but again I’d go with Dwight Drake–his (500) Days of Sanford video was almost as good as Brad’s American History Theater….I sure could have fun.
This is great. I would love to see how our state legislators would rank. I know you can’t review them all but how about give us your ranking on the Lexington & Richland legislators that you have interviewed?
pretty decent assessment Brad.
Salute`
Why do you say Andre is such a hard worker? That he works hard to get himself elected? That’s probably true, but since when is working hard to further ones narrow self interest a public virtue?
If you are saying he works hard for “the people”, can you prove it? Have you asked people in the aging community? They despise him because he only works to get votes on the backs of the elderly.
Andre BAuer has been telling us for years how hard he works. He tells us in press releases, bumper stickers, etc. But when the self serving statements are put aside, he is shown to be just another self serving pol out to make a name for himself.
I think overall this is a generally fair assessment, but I think over time you will see that candidates who right now are laying low somewhat are really going to come out personality-wise and show what they are made of. For example, we haven’t seen a whole lot of Sheheen yet but ‘word on the streets’ is that he is certainly a candidate to be reckoned with and has a lot of fire power that he has yet to show off. I think he is extremely intelligent and knows when and where to use that mental prowess, and I hope to see a lot more of him in the future.
Money is a huge factor in these races. It often trumps smarts, because the more you can get your message out and the more you can get in front of constituents, they just tend to remember you more and that can translate into votes. I think we will see candidates with a lot of money remain popular in this race. Whatever the more educated political pundits may think about the intellectual capacities of any of these candidates, the general population of South Carolina tends to vote based on what they see on tv and ads on the street.
The SAT test is being given at local high schools on Saturday. Maybe one of the lower tier candidates should challenge the others to take the test and provide the scores.
I’m guessing at least a couple of the candidates listed above would not be able to top 900 total for Verbal/Math.
I’d also love to compare Mr. Rex’s score to the average score for the kids he has been responsible for educating these past few years. In fact, maybe one of the requirements for his job should be taking all the same standardized tests the kids take and providing the scores. Same for school boards — I have no doubt that there are several board members who could not pass an 8th grade math or english test.
Blaine,
Spend a day with Bauer and you will see what Brad is talking about hard work. This guy never stops and you should ask constituents and seniors what Andre has done for them.
Agree that your assessment was interesting and enjoyable to read.
My 2 cents worth:
McMaster is lacking on “smarts” and common sense. Craigslist escapade as best example.
Nikki scores low on the truth/integrity meter with her “I can’t remember if I flew 1st class to China w/ the LuvGov” response. Makes one wonder what else she’ll be untruthful about.
Little Andre aka Dennis the Menace is the consummate politico, and Brad is right, his ambition continues to serve him well. Not to mention his “love” for the senior citizen voting bloc(if they only knew the truth).
Rex does present well. But I keep hearing from folks in the education arena that he was running for Gov as soon as he won the Supt position. And other educrats say his financial leadership while president at Cola College left the place in shambles.
Sheheen does impress, both intellectually and personally.
And, chiming along w/ Kathryn, I’d go for Dwight Drake. Yes, he’s a lobbyist/lawyer, but he is VERY smart and, for sure, knows how to work with the donkeys under the dome. Also believe him when he says he’s only interested in being governor and not using the office as a resume builder for higher political aspirations.
Two observations: 1)there are a number of names here that did not appear on this board a few months ago; and 2)the conversation is civil, disagreement without rancor. Both of these are welcome changes.
Doug, you are a jaded man. If you had ever spent 30 minutes in conversation with some of the people you are so quick to dismiss in your comments on this blog, you might find that you know less than you think you do. I have no idea how Inez (whom you routinely disparage) would score on the SAT, but I know that she has insight and a capacity for thoughtfulness that would surprise someone with your preconceptions (Brad did not expect The State to endorse her for Senate in 2004, but they did, precisely because she had greater depth than her opponent).
You want Rex to take an SAT test? Why don’t you just listen, and see if you hear reason and wisdom. Then listen to the others and see how much of that you hear.
KP,
I’ve heard Rex. Better than that, I’ve seen what he has done. Zip.
I’ve also spent far more than 30 minutes in conversation with the school board members of Richland 2.
Many of them were on the board when I ran in 2002. I participated in multiple candidate forums and got to know them very well in that environment.
Keep hiding out there anonymously. Maybe if you dared to put your name with your opinion we could see what your connections are.
I did verrrrry well on the SAT and I would make a terrible governor. The SAT does not measure the kind of “reason and wisdom” –good terms, KP– or patience (my bugaboo) that one might want from an elected official. The LSAT would come a bit closer, but a multiple choice test? Really, I want essays, written by the candidate under bar exam conditions–no assistance from speechwriters….
How about dodgeball?
The current SAT has an essay section.
If the head of education in South Carolina is going to do all sorts of PR whenever SAT scores rise by a point then the results must mean something, right? Same for PACT/PASS test scores. If he’s going to make that the core of the curriculum for all elementary schools, would it be too much to ask for him to take the test? Might offer some insight.
As for KP’s comment that I am jaded, I like to think of myself as an informed observer of the obvious. I look at facts and results. I judge politicians not on what they say but on what they do. If after a couple years in office you can’t point to specific positive things you have accomplished, maybe you should try working for a living.
Hey, just because I can no longer probably pass the PACT on math doesn’t mean I couldn’t have aced it when I was on the math team thirty-five years ago. We don’t retain as well what we don’t use, but since we don’t know what a young person might use in later life, we try to give a rounded education. My husband doesn’t use a lot of the humanities he learned and I don’t use much of the math I learned.
On the other hand, Doug makes a point. I was present for a pre-PACT session at Hand Middle School maybe five years ago. I am quite well-versed in world affairs, geography and the like, and I always do well in trivia games, but some of the 8th grade questions were stumpers, and not what I would have called core points–more like trivia.
I like essays, but they are subjective to grade. I have had a chance to grade stacks of essays for contests and the like (my dad was an editor so he was called upon to do so, and I would go behind him as a “sanity” check.) –it turns out it’s not as subjective to judge writing and reasoning quality as one might suppose. We would come out within a point (out of a hundred) on every essay.
Politicians work hard–maybe not always at what you or I would consider useful things, but they do work very hard. I agree that one ought to be able to point to positive changes, with the caveat that there are many reasons why someone might be unable to effect positive change and still be an effective executive officer or legislator, if only to provide some balance even if you lose.
There are two things Doug and I agree on. Local school boards are in too many cases an impediment to progress. I don’t know if that’s true in Richland 2, but it certainly is true in my own district. Like you, Doug, I ran for school board and lost, mostly (I think) because people here don’t really want change.
Of course, local boards have a lot of say over what happens in a district. And you can’t lay their faults at Rex’s door. The state can see that the foundation is in place for good things to happen in education, but it can’t make it happen. Look at Allendale.
Second thing we agree on is that elected officials need to be able to point to specific positive things they have accomplished while in office. I assumed your comment about Rex having accomplished “zip” was hyperbole. Because really, by any fair assessment, he’s accomplished a great deal.
And really, the test-taking thing is ridiculous. I can’t imagine that any of us who are getting by in the world would fail the PASS test in any subject at the 8th grade level — do you? And I am very sure my SAT scores would be quite respectable in English and embarrassing in math. What possible use would that be to anyone in determining my fitness for public office?
KP,
Three things Rex has done that have improved the schools please?
When I ran for school board, I went ahead and spent a couple hours taking a practice SAT test. I thought it would be good to know what the students were facing. Maybe that’s just me.
And it confirmed what I suspected. I scored lower on the Math section than I did 25 years earlier and scored much higher on the Verbal section. The math was lower because, as others have said, we don’t use those skills in most of our jobs. And the verbal score was higher because of 25 years worth of reading, writing, thinking on the job. It’s why I continue to believe that our high school curriculum has too much emphasis on math and not enough on communication and literacy.
My oldest son took a personal finance class at USC this semester and said it was by far the most useful class he had this year. That’s the kind of stuff we should be teaching high schoolers instead of quadratic equations, etc. There are very few professions that call for much math that goes beyond 8th grade level.
Also, I wasn’t suggesting Rex take the PASS test to show us he could score well on it. I assume he would. I think he should do it to know what the students in the state are actually doing. Sometimes experience is better than reading about something. Maybe it would have helped him to structure it better.
In defense of math (but not at the expense of civics courses–where are they?): It teaches rigorous thought processes–it can’t be beat for brain training–I swear I passed the multistate bar exam that I had to take again 20 years after law school for my SC license by dint of application of formal logic principles learned in discrete math courses combined with a tiny reservoir of retained law (the multistate does not test knowledge of current laws except for Constitutional Law and Criminal Procedure (a subset of Con Law)–it tests the English common law of 1660–very general principles, but a thousand of them, and very tricky ones at that–ancient inheritance schemes, for example)
—-and we desperately need to train as many Americans as possible in math, and science that requires math, or we will continue to fall behind and lose good jobs to India.
My husband has taught upper level courses in computer science at USC with NO American students–once it was all Asians(Indian and Chinese) save for two Eastern Europeans.
Wake up and do the equations, America.
Quick, explain the English laws of primogeniture and entail…
Primogeniture is the principle that property passes to the oldest male (the first born). An estate is entailed if it can only pass to heirs of the grantor, as opposed to a fee simple estate, which can be freely alienated.
Next?
Common law burglary: the breaking and entering of a dwelling place at night with the intent to commit a felony therein
Common law larceny (trespass de bonis asportatis) The taking and carrying away of the property of another with the intent to permanently deprive.
–Thanks to Professor Donald Fyr, R.I.P.
Kathryn,
I’ve worked in the software industry for 25 years and have a degree in computer science. I have not used any algebra or calculus knowledge at any point. I consider that time spent in college to be wasted. Statistics would have been more useful but not required.
The Indians have no special skills that make them better or worse than Americans in the industry. You need to look at the impact importing cheap labor from India H1B visas had on the American IT job market. That had more impact on the industry than American students supposed lack of math training.
Being good at math doesn’t make you a good programmer. And it has no bearing on your ability to communicate with customers to understand business requirements.
There’s a third thing we agree on — more emphasis on communication.
As for what Rex has accomplished: If you’re not impressed that we’re at or close to national averages on NAEP (and have the nation’s best improvement in math and science), reducing the achievement gap in reading and math (to the point that it’s now smaller than the national average), dramatically improving AP performance and ACT scores even though significantly more kids are participating, and leading the nation in improving on-time graduation rates, there’s always the fact that we’re ranked first in the nation in improving teacher quality (Education Week), second in online learning (Center for Digital Education), fifth on standards and accountability (Education Week), 17th on measures of education innovation, up from 34th a year ago (U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 10th in access to four-year-old programs (National Institute for Early Education Research), first in access to single-gender choices. I think that’s more than three.
To me, primogeniture is the reason so many second sons went into the church, and third sons into the army. A fourth son would probably end up doing something in HM government…
And entail was what made Mr. Collins the heir to Mr. Bennett’s estate, rather than the Bennett daughters. Also, Atticus Finch had helped one of the men who wanted to lynch his client with an entail problem.
I could be a great lawyer, if the court would allow me to use literary allusion rather than having to cite boring old court cases…
KP,
Rex can’t possibly take credit for any (in my opinion cherry-picked) improvement in statistics unless he can point to SPECIFIC actions he took to cause that result.
I could easily find many other statistics that would paint a less rosy picture, particularly on the graduation rates where South Carolina has been known to fudge the numbers.
I’ll believe the statistics when I see for the first time a news release from the Department of Education that announces that scores were worse than the year before. I’ve lived in SC for 19 years and have yet to see anything except the most positive spin (and selective reporting) of results. If things were as great as the Dept. of Education has claimed they are, we wouldn’t still be at the bottom in overall performance.
I feel that training in mathematics, which I hated in school, teaches mental discipline, how to deal with systems and their rules and organized thought.
Most of the components of a liberal arts education do not come into direct use in the work a day world but, in my opinion, they are invaluable in in learning how to think in an effective manner.
Intelligence is not the sine qua non for an effective leader (Ronald Reagen, no intellectual, effective leader; Jimmy Carter, bright man, ineffective leader) I think that it is a factor to be considered.
One interesting point, all three of the major candidates for mayor seem to be bright people (apologies to Ms. Clark, she may well be the brightest of women, I just know nothing about her). It is interesting that a position of such limited and power would attract such a qualified stable of candidates who seem to cover the mainstream political spectrum..
Brad–The Bennett estate was entailed on a male heir. There being none in the Bennett family, the estate went lookin’ and found Mr. Collins. Entail and primogeniture are basically the same thing.
In modern law, it doesn’t come up much….even dower and curtesy are pretty much passe’
Doug–being “in the software industry” doesn’t necessarily require math. Programming in Visual Basic or html doesn’t either. I do find it hard to believe that you haven’t used any algebra–I use algebra myself in real life, but not knowing exactly what you do…. My husband actually believes that calculus is not terribly useful for CS (it is useful in many types of engineering) and would prefer to use more useful forms of math.
My husband is, as I write, teaching higher (engineering-focused) math to officers at Fort Gordon. It is a very carefully edited course–the Army doesn’t waste education just for the heck of it. One of the students, who may well wash out, is having trouble with the concept of x = y – 6. This is a problem.
Jaded, like I say. We are NOT “at the bottom in overall performance” — that’s SCRG kool-aid — and the only people who fudge the graduation numbers are those pushing for private school vouchers. And for the record, so that you can believe the statistics, here are some excerpts from recent Department of Education press releases that give a fair, not rosy, picture of how we’re doing:
“State. national SAT scores drop; AP scores continue record rise” (August 25).
“Ed Week report of higher grad rate is a plus, but Rex says numbers still too low” (June 9).
“State scores on federal math tests change little, near national averages” (October 14).
“During their initial attempt last spring, 76.1 percent of South Carolina 10th-graders passed both sections of the state’s exit exam by scoring at Level 2 or higher on the test’s four achievement levels. That represented a decline from 2008’s average passing rate of 80.8 percent, the state’s highest rate ever” (November 24).
It’s also probably not accurate to say that the state superintendent of education doesn’t have a whole lot to do with improving achievement. Of course he or she isn’t solely responsible when we do well, any more than he’s solely responsible when we don’t (that’s why, in addition to achievement statistics, I included many things that Rex is undeniably solely responsible for initiating or expanding — teacher quality, innovation, online learning, public school choice).
But you also can’t really believe that schools would be improving at the rates we’ve seen over the past decade without a whole lot of state-level leadership. There’s legislation, funding decisions, teacher and administrator training, support for innovation, help for schools that aren’t doing well — a lot of things that contribute to improvement. And for the past seven years, all of the leadership has had to come from the superintendent.
How frequently do readers of this blog:
a) Calculate a square root
b) Need to know the sine of an angle
c) Calculate the integral of a function
d) Add fractions together
e) Calculate the volume of a sphere
And yet we teach, test, and measure students based on their ability to all of the above. And we wonder why students drop out or lose interest in education.
My daughter (God bless her) struggled with math from middle school onward. She’s now in a great baking/pastry program in Charleston and excelling. When I think back to all the stress and time spent trying to grasp the higher level math, I’m left wondering what the point was. Some people aren’t cut out to do certain things and that can be identified pretty early on. I can’t sing, dance, or play a musical instrument and no amount of instruction could change that. So I focus on what I can do or enjoy doing. We should do the same thing with high school students. If they don’t show an aptitude for algebra or geometry, then let them focus more on communication, arts, trade skills, etc.
Applying a cookie cutter approach to education results in a lot of wasted dough.
Adding fractions together is needed all the time when cooking, especially baking.
Girls couldn’t do math until suddenly they were outperforming boys. I’m not so sure it’s an innate lack of ability in many (most?) cases–possibly pedagogical issues….
I was not hot on arithmetic at all, but when I got to algebra and up, and had vastly better teachers–especially Mrs. Tilly–I was considerably more interested. I still went on to be an English major–I am a words person, and to get a degree from reading novels and writing about them—cool! However, the job opportunities are so limited for English majors, Garrison Keillor makes it a regular source of humor on his show! You get an English degree and do what with it–especially if you do not go on to law school as I did, and even if you do, those jobs are harder to come by than ever.