Now that we know it’s Benjamin and Finlay, I’m saying Benjamin wins the runoff.
From the beginning, I’ve thought Morrison pulled more from Benjamin, who I believe would have won outright tonight without Morrison in the race (and without turnout suppressed by confusion in District 2). And Morrison voters are serious, public-minded folks who ARE likely to turn out in a runoff, even when their guy lost.
The same, of course, can be said of their losing candidate. There’s nobody in public life in Columbia I respect more than Steve Morrison, who ran a good race for a guy who got into it so late.
But Benjamin doesn’t have it sewn up, and that’s where my (I think) comes in. SOME Morrison voters may go for Finlay. While I think that by and large Morrison represents the same sort of progressive values that Benjamin embodies, Morrison also has a history of ties to the same Don Tomlin/Gayle Averyt faction that has long backed Finlay.
Add to that the fact that some of Benjamin’s supporters are harder to turn out, twice, compared to the relatively affluent Finlay constituency, and Benjamin’s really going to have to work hard these next two weeks. It’s going to be a hard-fought runoff.
But I’m still thinking Benjamin wins it. What do y’all think?
Postscript: My musings above are based on the battlefield without a Morrison endorsement of one or the other. If he endorses — and that seems likely — I’d say his endorsee wins. Of course, all of this is just speculation, which I’m eager to hear y’all argue with…
… and anyone may start. Just go right ahead. I’m standing by to approve your comments…
Where ARE y’all? You were active enough this afternoon, but you seem to have disappeared this evening…
They’re all knocked out on Benadryl from Pollenpalooza. I’ll vote in the runoff for whichever candidate promises to seed the clouds and make it rain, like they do in Russia.
At the start of the Law School debate I moderated, I told the candidates that I would throw softball questions to any of them who promised to cut down every flowering tree in Columbia.
I was loaded to the gills with medications and had a box of Puffs Plus up there on the podium with me that I had to keep using, along with multiple cough drops to be able to ask the questions.
Today, I told someone via Twitter that (at the recommendation of my allergist) I take twice the adult dose of Zyrtec each night. The person I told this to said he would try that, which made me nervous. Can a non-physician be sued for medical malpractice?
I have been taking a double dose of generic Zyrtec (much cheaper , especially if you buy the biggest bottle CVS sells) without ill effects, as needed. I do take a daily dose year round. However, and this is the gold standard–they have 12 hr Chlor-Trimeton @ Target. It works when nothing else does.
My friend, a supposed great fan of Steve Morrison, voted for Finlay because she mistakenly believed he would lower her property taxes. If others feel likewise–never underestimate the fear and, well, flat-out ignorance of the voter, Finlay could pull from Morrison’s camp.
Another friend was a major Morrison supporter, but would die before he voted for Finlay. Let’s hope he votes for Benjamin–my friend’s a local treasure!
Anyone who believes candidate A is the better candidate for the city or state or whatever but votes for candidate B in the believe that she personally will benefit financially should be deeply ashamed.
Just speaking in the abstract, applying the algebra of political morality…
Now if the person believed candidate B were the better one for the city and it also happened that she believed candidate B would be better for her pocketbook, that’s OK. It’s the other scenario that is reprehensible.
I think a lot of folks who voted for Morrison in the election will vote for Finlay in the runoff. Benjamin has tried throughout the race to define himself as a fiscal “conservative” but it’s hard to believe him. Benjamin’s promises to restore $9 million to public safety write a check that Columbia can’t afford. Then there’s the outlandish statements about a rape that couldn’t be investigated due to lack of police funding, a serious allegation that Chief Carter denied. Throw in Benjamin’s history in payday lending, an industry which has been extremely damaging to inner-city communities, and I don’t see how Benjamin is possibly a candidate that we would trust as a leader, and as a representative of the City of Columbia. Obviously I’m not a Benjamin supporter, but I do think that the Morrison voters will break in Finlay’s favor, if they are as intelligent and enlightened as the State describes them… It’s more than just low taxes, and no candidate in Columbia is going to cut taxes. It’s about holding back the rate of increase, not making promises the city can’t afford, making tough choices when it comes to funding core services, and protecting the quality of life and safety that residents of the city deserve.
Thanks for sharing, Joshua.
Another problem Benjamin has — although I think it’s surmountable — is the fact that there’s a closely-contested runoff in Finlay’s council district. Meanwhile, voters are likely confused and demoralized in the second district, where they almost, but not quite, got to vote on a successor to Cromartie.
@ Joshua–I think most of Morrison’s supporters couldn’t give a rat’s about “fiscal conservatism”–that was Finlay’s sole issue, and if that mattered to you, you voted for him.
Benjamin has repeatedly said that the city doesn’t have the moral authority to raise taxes until its financial house is clean. I have argued with him repeatedly on that point, and he won;t budge–so if it’s fiscal conservatism (read civic cheapskateness) you’re after, take your pick.
It may be that some Morrison supporters just cannot vote for a black man…
@ Brad–I think it may be that some people get motivated by fear–fear of losing their homes to high taxes, say–an unreasonable fear to us under the circumstances, but still a fear–a feeling that they have and cannot shake, so they view voting for Finlay as a matter of survival of home and family…. They feel they have no moral alternative.
I think more of Morrison’s support goes to Finlay than one might think, plus the factor of the District 4 runoff and resultant voter turnout…so I’m picking Finlay in a very very narrow upset win in the runoff.
The State today was saying that in a runoff the people who vote are pretty much the ones who voted in the original election for the candidates in the runoff. It becomes a matter of continuing to get out the vote. So, Finlay has an edge, because his District 4 folks will be out to vote, but Benjamin has a lot of people whose eyes are on the prize.