As I said earlier about the Crantford survey — I don’t know whether this is right, but I certainly hope it is. This just in from the Sheheen campaign:
A new poll released today proves what we already knew – Vincent Sheheen has captured the momentum in the race to be South Carolina’s next governor.
News reports stated just a few weeks ago that Nikki Haley had a 17-point lead. Yet a national pollster just released two polls conducted a week apart that show a dramatic shift towards Vincent Sheheen. Hamilton Campaigns conducted a survey last week that gave Haley a 51%-41% lead with 8% undecided. The second poll, conducted this week, shows Vincent cutting the lead in half to 49%-44%.
Read the pollster’s analysis:
“Bottomline – As voters have begun to tune in to this race, the margin between the two candidates has been cut in half in a short period of time. Given the rapid movement and voter discontent with Mark Sanford, this race has certainly become one to watch over the closing weeks of the campaign.” (View entire poll results)
This race is a dead heat and Vincent Sheheen is the candidate on the move. It’s not surprising that Vincent has the momentum in this race because voters are learning troubling new things about Nikki Haley on a daily basis. Trust has become the dominant issue in the last few weeks and South Carolinians are beginning to realize that they cannot trust Nikki Haley. Help keep the momentum going. Donate today and spread the word by forwarding this email to friends and family. We need your help to close the deal.
For some time, I’ve been having some pretty dark thoughts about the state of democracy in South Carolina. First Alvin Greene, then a fall electorate perversely bent on ignoring all the negatives about a candidate who would be very bad news as governor of our state.
Each bit of news like this makes me feel less cynical, and gives me greater hope in the wisdom of the voters as they finally begin to pay attention…
What worries me is that this may not be enough movement, fast enough. It does South Carolina no good if the majority completes its shift to Sheheen in mid-November….
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Actually, it’s a pretty fast and sizable shift. She’s lost half her lead since late September.
Yeah, but it only counts if she loses ALL of it.
@brad
Correct. It’s the last 5% that will be REALLY hard to get. Hodges got 47% as an incumbent against Sanford. Tommy Moore got 45% against Sanford four years ago. Sheheen hasn’t even reached that yet yet in any poll.
And I think the polls can’t account for the post-Obama Republican enthusiasm.
Crantford states that 100% of the folks he polled indicated that they will be voting in the election. Any legitimate pollster knows that that is a fishy percentage. If you include everyone you poll in your results, what you have done, at best, is report the views of registered voters, not likely voters. — By contrast, the Rasmussen and Hamilton polls reflect the views of likely voters. — Therefore, while it may be kosher to compare the results of the Rasmussen and Hamilton polls with each other, but it is not kosher to compare the results of the Crantford poll with either.
No matter what percentage Haley or DeMent win by, it’s because God has singled them out for greatness.
It’s gone from Sheheen having a 5% chance to a 7% chance of winning. Good news but hardly anything to get excited about yet. When it gets to 10% I’ll start to take notice.
In today NY Times column titled: “Shifting Tides in Governors’ Races:” the 538 guys mention governors races from these states: California, Maryland, New Mexico, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, Maine, New York, Texas and Rhode Island. No mention of South Carolina. The 538 folks are not seeing much in the latest polls. I think this race could tighten up at the rate it’s going for another 5 years and Haley would still win. Everyone needs to take a deep breath and interpret the polls for what they show: a comfortable Haley lead.
I think the voters are being forced, once again, to choose between the lesser of two unqualified candidates. Big sigh…
Vincent Sheheen is as qualified as is humanly possible.
Kathyrn,
But not as energized as necessary given the circumstances…
I think Sheheen has won over a sizable number of moderate rebublicans, but I am not so sure that the traditional democratic voters will come out in force to carry him over the line. He needs both en masse to have any chance, as Doug points out.
@Mark
Right. Sheheen can get to 49.9999% and it doesn’t matter. Every single vote above 45% is going to take incrementally more effort to achieve. And since he is basically running a stealth campaign combined with a constant barrage of negativity against Haley, he’s at a serious disadvantage.
I believe Hodges won because of the lottery and the fact that Beasley was so forgettable.
If Sheheen wants to win, he has to come up with one theme that resonates with voters RIGHT NOW.
I think there are three choices:
1) Jobs
2) Taxes
3) Schools
Pick one, stop talking about Haley, and talk non-stop about specific policies he would attempt to implement.
He’s at the point now where his only chance of winning will be a Hail Mary pass. He can’t win with a “I’m not Sanford” message.
Fair enough. I do wonder about the “passion” gap here.
No Drama Obama swung it, but I think Vincent is going to have to fire it up!
Doug,
He can win with your vote.
@Doug – I think you are partially right- Hodges did win because of gambling – one angry man who made his money off gambling machines threw a whole bunch of money into the race – and proved we could be bought while he was at it. But Beasley hit the “flag” supporters with a change of mind, so it was a double whammy on him.
About those jobs, I think Sheheen is more capable of bringing a positive spin to SC and bring jobs to the state. The only way I can see Haley bringing jobs is if somehow her out of state supporters decide to reward us for her win. Her rhetoric is meaningless, her plans are non-existent, her work ethic is deplorable, and, well, there’s that other baggage that seems to keep growing.
What I want to see is a vision for South Carolina and someone who loves every inch of it.