Twitter alerted me to this item on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire:
Iowa Straw Poll Rises in Importance
“With the Iowa straw poll a mere 90 days away, the absence of an obvious leader in the GOP race for the presidency, or even an obvious lineup, has left Republicans in a state of unease — but the uncertainty has also heightened anticipation,” the Des Moines Register reports.
First, I don’t care all that much about the Iowa caucuses themselves. That is to say, I don’t believe they should have the impact they have had for the last few decades. I wrote about that in a column several years ago.
Second, I can’t think of when I was ever impressed by a “straw poll” — anytime, anywhere. If I did, it was a moment of weakness in which my sense of perspective was badly diminished, perhaps by a nutritional deficiency of some sort.
But the idea of anybody being so a-quiver about such things as to write the phrase, “With the Iowa straw poll a mere 90 days away…” causes me to think that somebody needs to get a life…
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You’re not a real political junkie until you know that, in every year preceding a presidential election, there will be a Saturday in August where you’ll be sitting in front of a television watching CSPAN as the straw poll festivities happen out in Ames, Iowa. It’s the official unofficial start of the GOP primary campaign (falling right around Labor Day, that seems fitting timing-wise).
There is a very interesting analysis of the impact of Mike Huckabee’s anouncement not to run. Seems like it’s down to the fringe idiots vs the bad policy yet sane candidates. My guess is the Iowa caucuses will winnow the field considerably. Michelle Backman for one is likely on the way out if she doesn’t win.
I still believe Mitt Romney will be the nominee. Romney would be formidable in the general so I’m hoping he does poorly in Iowa and stumbles in NH. That could open the door to someone like Pawlenty who just can’t match the charisma of Obama.
This is all starting to get pretty exiting and fun. The political Santa Claus is on the way.
Donald Trump is out, too.
Here are my revised odds:
Romney Even
Pawlenty 3:1
Daniels 4:1
Bachmann 8:1
Gingrich 10:1
Paul 15:1
Palin 20:1
Huntsman 20:1
Cain 50:1
I definitely hope Huntsman can make it a strong race. He is by far the best of the group and would be a good choice for Republicans. He has proven his mettle and could provide the leadership this country needs, both on a practical and experienced administrative level.
However, as we all know, charisma is the key to a successful campaign. Obama’s charisma does not appeal to me but it does to enough voters and in a weak Republican field, along with the fractious nature of the variety of candidates so far, Obama should practically cruise to re-election.
But, you never know. Obama may have his own version of Katrina to offset his victories with the birth certificate and killing Bin Laden.
The best news of the day. Trump won’t be a candidate for the Republican nomination. The Democrats secret weapon has been shot down before it could gain traction. 🙂
Forgot Santorum. He’s probably about 15-1.
I had one of those WOW moments last night watching political TV. Apparently Newt made some derogatory comment about the Ryan budget proposal and the GOP power brokers just went bonkers. Watching Rush Limbaugh and the various other party faithful slam ole Newt just gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling all over. Good riddance to that scumbag. Newt’s odds just dropped to about 100 – 1.