Whoa. Wow. Everything’s shifting on us. Boy, am I glad I started hedging my predictions in recent media interviews. (And I wish I’d hedged them even more during an interview with a Virginia radio station at 7:30 this morning.)
Newt Gingrich has major mo in South Carolina, just hours away from a debate that may be the highest-stakes encounter we’ve seen here in many a year.
This morning’s developments:
- A poll showed Gingrich ahead of Mitt Romney, 32 points to 29. The same poll, as recently as Sunday, showed Romney with a double-digit lead that supposedly was “growing.”
- We learned that Rick Perry would drop out and endorse Gingrich.
- The Gingrich campaign announced it was being endorsed by 100 Tea Party leaders.
OK, that last one’s weak, but in light of the first two — wow. This is happening fast.
He’s turning us into a Newt! The question is, will we get better?
Will the Gingrich mo subside sufficiently for South Carolinians to do what they’ve always done since 1980 — settle down and go with the eventual nominee? Because even if history is made and South Carolina goes with an insurgent, Romney still seems almost certain to be that nominee. Gingrich creating some last minute excitement with a touchdown in SC doesn’t mean that over the coming weeks and months, when they sober up, Republicans won’t go, “Whoa! Wait a second! This is Newt Gingrich we’re talking here…”
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Who’s to say SC won’t again pick the eventual nominee in whoever wins Saturday?
SC does not mirror the politics of the entire country, clearly, but it does seem to be in line with the national Republican party. So where’s the disconnect in that?
Statistically speaking one poll means very little. Given the large margin of error in these things you would expect an occassional one to reflect something unusual. The statistical white noise virtually ensures that will occur. Still, it’s not a lock just yet. I give Romney about a 95% chance of winning the nomination. Even if he loses Saturday that would only drop his odds down to about 85%.
Gangbusters? He will never break up a gang he’s in.
I hope the ex-wives club goes ballbusters on him before this goes much further.
It’s already happening. Check it out…