Paul “The Forehead” Begala, writing about the swing voters in those six states that are still in play in the 2012 presidential election, runs the numbers for us:
The truth is, the election has already been decided in perhaps as many as 44 states, with the final result coming down to the half-dozen states that remain: Virginia and Florida on the Atlantic Coast, Ohio and Iowa in the Midwest, and New Mexico and Colorado in the Southwest.
But of course not everyone in those closely divided states will make an electoral difference. We can almost guarantee that 48 percent of each state’s voters will go for Obama, and another 48 percent will decide for Romney. And so the whole shootin’ match comes down to around 4 percent of the voters in six states.
I did the math so you won’t have to. Four percent of the presidential vote in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado is 916,643 people. That’s it. The American president will be selected by fewer than half the number of people who paid to get into a Houston Astros home game last year—and my beloved Astros sucked last year; they were the worst team in baseball. Put another way, there are about as many people in San Jose as there are swing voters who will decide this election. That’s not even as many people as attended Puerto Rican cockfights in the past year—-although there are obvious similarities.
And, oh, the lengths we will go to reach those magical 916,643. The political parties, the campaigns, the super PACs (one of which, the pro-Obama Priorities USA Action, I advise), will spend in excess of $2 billion—mostly just to reach those precious few. That works out to $2,181.87 per voter—or as Mitt Romney might call it, pocket change…
There’s nothing wrong with the election being decided by we few, we unhappy few, swing voters. What’s awful is that your favorite swing voter, founder of the UnParty himself, yours truly, is not among those whose vote counts. On account of how, during my lifetime, the overwhelming majority of my fellow South Carolinians have done some extreme swinging of their own, switching from never considering voting for a Republican to never considering voting for a Democrat.
Which is a shame. Since we have now totally blown our status as the state that picks the eventual nominees (the Republican ones, anyway) by that Gingrich snit back in January, it would be really nice if the nation had to hold its breath to see which way we choose to go.
But it is not to be.
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And this doesn’t get you riled up about the absurd system we have to pick the president!? Unbelievable. I’ve have yet to hear a coherent argument as to why we have a system that allows voters to cast votes for PRESIDENT (not, I repeat not electors Nowhere will you see the name of an elector on the ballot) And then have the winner receive the second most votes.
But Brad won’t be convinced even though he just made an extremely good case for getting rid of the damn thing. HE won’t have any impact on the result. But he would if he moved to Florida.
Ok, with that off my chest let’s disect what Begala said. First of all he’s completely wrong about New Mexico. With the huge Hispanic population and the GOPs ongoing assault on immigrants that state is not in play. Obama will easily win, probably in double digits.
So that leaves 5 swing states: Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio and Colorado. Interestingly Michigan also seems to be in play. Not sure what they’re thinking in the auto state. Had Romney been president that state’s unemployment rate would likely be near 15%.
But I digress. Assuming Michigan comes to its senses Romney would have to win Florida, Ohio, Virgina and Colorado to become president. A tough task given he trails slightly in all 4. However, this may not be that difficult if the economy continues to flounder. In fact some states not mentioned, Minnesota for instance, could come into play. Right now Obama is probably about a 60-40 bet to win re-election. Not bad odds really considering how unlikeable Mitt Romney is.
I’m glad we aren’t a swing state…I don’t look forward to any of the election ads and phone calls that are sure to come.
I think the swing states are being bombarded now and have been.
This is why all the wailing and crying about Citizens United is such a waste of time. All that money spent on campaigns is a horrible investment. How many people are truly influenced by a TV ad?
Sheldon Adelson spent tens of millions to prove Newt Gingrich was an awful candidate.
I’d say 95% of the people have already made up their minds and the ones who haven’t will be influenced by what the economy looks like in November.
It is more a function of who is motivated to get out to vote versus who someone says they will vote for in a poll. I think the Democrats are seriously underestimating the anti-Obama sentiment. It’s as strong or stronger than the Hope-and-Changer’s were in 2008.
Brad, what is this “overwhelming majority” of which you speak? It was 54-45 for McCain in 2008. That’s 20 people in a room, 11 of whom voted for McCain and 9 for Obama. At a presidential level at least, this is not nearly as red a state as Wyoming for example. Times are changing, very slowly, but changing to be sure here, demographics are slowly changing here too.
I never understand the thinking that because this state can be counted on going Republican, somehow my vote doesn’t count.
Dang, Phillip beat me to it. We are by far not the reddest state; several out west are far redder.
David – As long as SC is an all or nothing state, if you vote for anyone but the Republican presidential candidate, you might as well not vote.
@Phillip – But will the black churches be filling buses to head to the polls with voting instructions like they did for Obama in 2008? I bet the black voting numbers were 10x what it was in 2004 or 2000.
Living in a perennial Blue state, NY,where the average margin of victory in the last 5 elections (1992-2008) is over 20%, it almost becomes meaningless which candidate you vote for. Therefore I write-in myself for President. I’ve never had any regrets about my vote.
Why shouldn’t black churches bus voters to the polls?
@Kathryn – Why should they? Don’t play dumb, you know as well as I do what they’re doing.