Over the last couple of days, I’ve gotten a couple of releases from SC Democrats saying Sen. Vincent Sheheeh was in a DEAD HEAT with Gov. Nikki Haley.
So finally, I asked “Which poll?” and was directed to this one by the Post and Courier and three TV stations. The lede:
COLUMBIA – South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has a slim lead over her Democratic opponent and a wide margin over two other challengers in a state that is deeply divided over the incumbent governor’s leadership, a Palmetto Politics Poll shows.
The poll of likely voters commissioned by The Post and Courier and three television stations shows that in a matchup with Democrat Vincent Sheheen, Haley leads Sheheen by four percentage points – within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error. Haley led overall with 46 percent support of those polled among the 650 likely voters surveyed.
In the matchup, Sheheen garnered 42 percent, independent Tom Ervin 3 percent and Libertarian Steve French 2 percent. Six percent of voters polled were undecided about the race, which features a 2010 rematch of Haley and Sheheen….
But the next bit was the most interesting part:
In a separate question posed to 1,000 potential voters, Haley would have a double-digit lead over Sheheen if he were the only other candidate in the race, with the incumbent leading 53 percent to Sheheen’s 40 percent in their head-to-head race.
So, if Erwin starts catching on at all — I’m assuming the Libertarian candidate’s numbers will stay fairly stationary — the governor could be in trouble, whether Sheheen gains any support or not.
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The media buys have barely started (if at all). When that happens, Haley will blanket the airwaves. Ervin will have to decide how much money he wants to spend to get smoked in the election. It’s a vanity project for him, I guess.
Haley will win by 5-7 points simply because she hasn’t screwed up anything big (yet) and Sheheen has all the charisma and leadership qualities of a stump.
Doug, Ervin’s webpage outlines his positions on 5 issues. Four of the five are identical to Sheheen’s. The fourth (elimination of the individual income taxes) is not going anywhere in the foreseeable future of any governor. His backers hope it will resound with disaffected tea-type conservatives, if they fail to detect he is just another lawyer R.I.N.O.
I would bet Ervin already knows the maximum Sheheen’s handlers wish him to spend “to get smoked in the election.” No doubt he got most of his money from lawyers and through some of their phony nonprofits. Should Sheheen win, not only will Alvin Green wind up with a state job, Erwin may be in line for a seat on the state’s supreme court.
At least the state Democratich party’s artifice this time around has not yet fallen to the pathetic extremes of 2008’s contest.
No doubt Ervin will get a well-deserved bumper sticker like the one Sheheen got last time around:
http://aquilinefocus.blogspot.com/2010/09/rotten-roots.html