Everybody’s acting like it’s a big deal that President Bush said he would not be the one to finish the job in Iraq — that it would be up to his successor. (Well, everybody except The New York Times. They consigned it to the third paragraph of their lead story. They decided, for reasons that elude me, that it was a bigger deal that the president conceded that the war was eroding his political status.)
And I suppose it is — to anyone to whom this rather obvious fact is a surprise. But I have trouble understanding why it would be. This is what I always assumed to be the case. I guess it’s why I hardly know what to say to the growing number of people who talk about pulling out of Iraq, as if that would make any kind of geopolitical sense to do so — for this country, or for the rest of the world.
Once the first American boots were on the ground in-country, we were committed to a process that was bound to take longer than Mr. Bush would serve in office. But rather than rewrite what I’ve already said, I’ll just fill the rest of this post with the column that I wrote for March 23, 2003. It seems quite appropriate to the present moment:
Copyright 2003 The State
All Rights Reserved
http://www.TheState.com
The State (Columbia, SC)
MARCH 23, 2003 Sunday FINAL EDITION
SECTION: EDITORIAL; Pg. D2
LENGTH: 966 wordsHEADLINE: THE ‘LONG HAUL’ WILL LAST LONGER THAN BUSH PRESIDENCY;
THEN WHAT?BYLINE: BRAD WARTHEN, Editorial Page Editor
BODY:
GEORGE W. BUSH has crossed his Rubicon, and he has taken us with him.Julius Caesar set world history on a new course when he took his legion into Italy in defiance of the Senate. President Bush has taken an equally irrevocable step by entering the Tigris and Euphrates basin to wage war in spite of U.N. objections.
The United States has rightly set aside its existing security relationships in favor of a new strategy. No longer can Americans be complacent isolationists who only rise up when prodded, then go back to our pleasures. Now, we have set out as knights errant to slay dragons, before the dragons can slay us and others.
This is one of those moments when everything changes.
The United Nations’ future is in doubt, as is NATO’s. Some of our best friends in the world have turned out to be something else altogether, and we’re going to have to sort that out. Going into Iraq is likely to rattle the foundations of Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Iran and many others. It will change the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian standoff, cause North Korea to do who knows what, and freak out the Chinese more than that bomb on their Belgrade embassy did.
In other words, it will create both problems and opportunities, as do all of history’s great turning points.
This is all happening because the president has decided to use the military might of the most powerful nation in history to hunt down bad guys wherever they might be. It is a development that I welcome. With great power comes the responsibility to act.
Like The New York Times’ Tom Friedman, I worry that the president may have fumbled efforts to get international support – support that is crucial to long-term success, even if we don’t need it for the actual fighting. I fret that the president has good instincts about what to do in Iraq, but doesn’t clearly see how to make his goals in that area mesh logically with other policies.
But you know what? This is the guy we’ve got. And you know what else? He’s probably the only one stubborn enough to see this thing through. And that may be exactly what we need. We could maybe have had a more wonkish sort in the White House who was better able to articulate the big picture, but everyone I can think of who might fit that description would be far too likely to try to fight the war with one finger in the wind, ready to bolt at the first casualty or discouraging word.
George W. Bush is different. Something happened to him right after Sept. 11. He realized how dangerous it is to neglect the world, to let dangerous situations fester, to pretend that we have threats "contained" when all they have to do is buy an airline ticket.
Many others realized that, too. But most settled back into a routine after the main fighting in Afghanistan. Mr. Bush never settled back. He meant everything he said about the "long haul."
Anti-war protesters are wrong about many things, but they are right about the one thing that seems to be eating at many of them the most: We probably would not have gone to war in Iraq if George W. Bush were not president. Bill Clinton wouldn’t have done it. Mr. Bush’s own father wouldn’t have (it wouldn’t be prudent). FDR couldn’t even pull it off; as badly as he wanted to help Britain fight Hitler, he had to wait for Pearl Harbor (after which Hitler proved his madness by declaring war on us) to proceed.
George W. Bush doesn’t seem to care what this does to him politically, or to his place in history, or any of that usual stuff. He is going to see this thing through until the world is made safe from Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong Il, the ayatollahs in Tehran and, yes, Osama bin Laden.
That is a fact that both reassures me and makes me worried about the long term.
The United States can’t back down now. To do so is to show the kind of faintheartedness that (among many other factors) led to 9/11/01. Osama bin Laden made certain calculations after we backed off from finishing Saddam the first time, and then skedaddled out of Somalia as soon as we suffered some casualties. He thought that all he had to do to defeat us was draw blood.
"The long haul" means a lot longer than four years, and there’s no going back. So what happens if this uniquely determined president is replaced next year? While I might like some of the people lining up to run against him in many ways, I don’t think any of them is as single-minded about this course of action as is the current president. And they need to be. There will be times when the resolve of the man in the Oval Office is tested as severely as that of Abraham Lincoln in his darkest hours.
And right now, Mr. Bush is the only one who’s enough of a cowboy to see it through.
So is that an endorsement of the incumbent in 2004? No. Because we have to face the fact that the "long haul" is also longer than eight years, and at the end of that time, we will definitely have a new leader. Whether we change horses in 2004 or 2008, we’re still going to be in midstream. This Rubicon is wider than the one Caesar crossed.
So what do we do about it? A lot of the burden falls on Mr. Bush himself. He needs to sell this war, both to the American people and to our sometime allies, with the same kind of relentlessness with which he has moved on Saddam.
Sure, he has tried. He’s done speeches, and generally said the right things. But he needs to try harder. That’s because his strategy is not going to succeed unless there is a sufficiently strong consensus in this country to support it for many years to come.
That consensus will determine who the next president will be. And whether Mr. Bush wants to think about it or not, there will be a next president at some point.