Well, it looks like Mike Campbell’s strategy of dodging his opponent and doing grass-roots stuff (or whatever he was doing) in the Upstate was a big success!
So tonight’s result was what I expected two weeks ago. I had thought sure Andre would be the big vote-getter on June 13, although I expected a runoff. I was pretty stunned that Campbell was the leader. Thinking this was a trend, I predicted he’d edge out his opponent today. Instead, Andre edged him out.
I had sort of thought that Henry Jordan voters, eccentric as they were likely to be ("eccentric" seems like a very diplomatic word to me; don’t you agree), might go to Andre, but they were a sufficiently unpredictable bunch that it seemed less than certain.
I thought the "bandwagon" effect would outweigh that. Primary voters have this idiotic tendency to vote for the person they think is going to win (they confuse cause and effect, I suppose, and as a result cause and effect do get confused). So in my prediction today, I bet on that.
But I reckoned without the effect of the contrast between Campbell’s evasiveness and Bauer’s extreme availability (standing out on highway overpasses, etc.). Anyway, that’s my immediate take on it. But anyone who says he knows why things happen in a primary goes out on a very shaky limb.
Anyone care to join me out here? What do you think caused the "reverse mo" that swept Andre to victory?
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Give yourself at least partial credit, even if in a rather counterproductive way. Your relentlessly negative coverage of Bauer, just as with Kit Spires, undoubtedly caused more than a few people to vote against their opponents.
Simple…a lazy guy with his dad’s name, vs a hard working self made man. I will bet on the latter any day of the week.
Andre worked 18 to 20 hours per day. Campbell’s own press releases showed him working 3 to 4 hours a day.
The State was wrong…but the State made it close.
Refusing to debate his opponent hurt Mike, as did Jordan’s support of Bauer. But what really hurt Mike was the Jenny Sanford letter.
I hate to be a stick in the mud, but I thought The State’s coverage was pretty good, even if those predictions were a just little off….
Well for you folks including the goofy looking Brad that tried to discredit the LT. GOVERNOR, even up until the last minute of this campaign, I say none of you would have the courage or self esteem to run for public office, CONGRATULATIONS LT. GOVERNOR, ANDRE BAUER !!!!
Refusing to debate him on ETV didn’t cost him any votes. I doubt more than a thousand people tuned into the earlier debates.
Was simple. Andre voters got out and voted and some of Mike’s didn’t.
As a Republican, I am sad that people vote for someone like Andre Bauer. I think he is the EXACT reason politicians get a bad name (They do stupid stuff, immature stuff, and then apologize – and keep right on doing the same stuff).
But we get what we deserve when we vote such fools into office.
The NRA endorsement of Bauer tipped the election to him. If he gets the NRA blessing, that is a huge advantage, and it happened.
The State went beyond negative coverage … it was a total bully to Andre Bauer. And while I was going to vote for Bauer anyway, I was even more motivated to get to the runoff and cast my vote for him. Andre can thank you Brad for that!
PS…Is there any chance we could have Jenny Sanford placed on the Barber for Lt. Gov steering committee? As the female Pug Ravenel of the Republican Party…there is no telling how many votes she could get Andre…
I was one of the ‘eccentric’ Jordan voters. I voted for him because 1) Campbell is a second generation politico, and 2) Bauer was the incumbent (I want to toss the rascals out). For the runoff, I voted Bauer, because an incumbent is the lesser of the above two weevils.
I will vote for the democratic opponent come November. Once again, tossing the rascals out.
There you go Jordan supporters. Brad just called you redneck, inbred, hicks. But at least he did it in a diplomatic way. Way to go Brad!!!
To all you Bauer apologists out there, I hope you saw his interview on WIS last night. What an idiot. Since when is standing on an overpass, breaking multiple laws and waving like an inbred monkey considered work. If that fool is reelected, SC is in more trouble than I ever thought possible.
Brad, I think the State should get out of endorsing candidates. Or maybe stay in the business of endorsing candidates because it tells us conservatives who NOT to vote for! Thanks for your election coverage on this matter, and we all kno wthat we can Count on the State, to quickly identify the worst candidate. My prediction–you possibly endorse only 1 republican in the General.
South Carolina voters are a fickle bunch. The Andre-on-the-overpass stunt probably garnered him some votes, but as a highway safety guy I was appalled. How can anyone so reckless continue to garner so much political support. It is simply stunning!
There was probably a bit of overconfidence on the part of Campbell voters that caused many to stay at home. Jordan’s endorsement probably helped Andre more than most of us thought it would. But you’re right Brad, it’s simply impossible to fully explain the Republican primary this year.
Eccentic?Absolute nuts.The good Dr. is
the Tom Turnipseed of the wing nuts!
WoW, Hank, did you see your candidate Mr. Barber on WIS. No wonder you have a cause for concern !
Heck,
Maybe Andre will finally act like a man instead of the 15 year old he he has been imitating for the last 4 years.
It could happen – not likely- but it could.
Sure he looks like a fool standing on bridges waving at cars. But walking around and waving at people is all it takes to earn the vote of some.
Maybe one of the 18 year old teeanage girls on his website will tickle his fancy.
Funny that Andre has always waved from overpasses during his campaigns and this is the first time people have said anything about it.
Gee David, you seem a little obsessed about bridges . Are you afraid of heights? Have you ever considered anger management? It might be something to think about before the November election. !
I guess that most people (and certainly the press) simply ignored Andre’s foolish and illegal overpass antics in past campaigns.
I saw Barber on WIS and can’t wait for voters to compare Andre and Barber side-by-side in a debate.
Barber is a mature man with wide ranging experience including the ministry, practicing law, running a restaurant and five years in the legislature.
Andre is a used-car salesman willing to use political influence to rook money from the SC taxpayers. He takes foolish risks and considers himself above the law. And, that’s just what’s in the public record.
Of course, Barber probably doesn’t have a myspace website but, then, I doubt most South Carolinians know what myspace is– and if they do, they consider it the mark of a self-absorbed, immature kid.
Even though I’ll be voting for Barber in November, I was happy to vote for Bauer in the runoff, and happy that he won. I’d much rather see Bauer win over Barber than Mike Campbell…ugh, what an absolute shell of a “leader.” No substance, just a name and endorsements.
I went to the polls,ready to vote,but just couldn’t decide on,WHO? Bauer? Campbell? Either way you win.
That’s what was so great about the Republican primary.Iss ALL good.So good,ya can’t even bring yourself to vote.
Two words: Jenny Sanford.
As a Gamecock fan, I’m going to get her on one of these sports radio shows to predict EVERY WEEK that USC will lose and to throw her support to the other team. We should be undefeated.
What was she thinking? She’s going to be like DeMint and need a handler.
“Gee David, you seem a little obsessed about bridges ”
No, not at all.
Might be obsessed at the sad fact that a lot of people can be fooled by stupid political stunts – but not bridges.
David’s right. Bridges aren’t fooled by stupid political stunts.
Sad thing is Captain- a lot of our voters aren’t as bright as a bridge over the interstate.
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Nice color formatting on your site