This morning I see that, while Nielsen sees Obama and McCain tied in "buzz" (whatever that means), Gallup sees McCain leading by 5 points. A week ago, after the Democratic Convention and before the Republican, Obama had led by 7 points in the same poll.
WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
More on that "enthusiasm gap:"
Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%
Discuss amongst yourselves.
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Rasmussen has it 47/46 McCain, a virtual tie. Hold on to your hats folks. This is going to go right down to the wire.
As more comes out about Obama’s career being guided and financed by fundamentalist Muslim money from Saudi Arabia, McCain is really going to move ahead.
Don’t forget the bump McCain will get after Obama is caught drinking the blood of newborn babies.
Still catching up with e-mail from over the weekend, I see that Zogby reported yesterday a "small post-convention edge" for McCain-Palin.
I guess Snead is one of the 4,000 people that the Obama campaign has trying to monitor the Internet and break up negative discussions about Obama’s very REAL shortcomings, which cannot be denied or explained away.
Obama has bigger problems on its hands, when the Jews figure out that he is financed by black nationalists and Muslims who use these blacks to spread propaganda among blacks that the “white Jews” in Israel are not the children of God. Reverand Wright is just the tip of the iceberg.
Obama’s support for reparations funded by “taxing rich whites and Jews”, also might wise up some of the WASPs out there.
These polls are highly suspect, with the ones which are sponsored by the WaPo, USA Today and NYT most especially so. I put some stock in the independents (aren’t Zogby and possibly Rasmussen independent?), but the others are as biased as their lib MSM sponsors are, and amount to nothing more than tools used by the left to sway public opinion and fix elections.
Having said that, in this case I believe the advantage now enjoyed by McCain/Palin is MUCH larger than these polls indicate. That is my gut, supported by the hysteria about Palin I see in the MSM and on the left.
Faust
Way to go, Snead, bravo.
Of course Lee posts as often as 4000 people, so that’s a cost savings for McCain-Palin!
Brad, as we all know, the national head-to-head polls are not the important thing, it’s the state-by-state. How is the electoral map looking? Interesting though to read in Sunday’s Times that Obama is pulling some ads from red states where he wanted to challenge, such as Georgia. What’s surprising in the end is how the map is, in the end, going to be virtually unchanged from 00 and 04, just a state here and there tipped either direction.
I do think McCain has given himself a good chance to win. The only consolation for me is that The Daily Show will be that much funnier for the four years to come, in that case.
I suspect Obama will return to the top of the polls and stay there as soon as people learn of Palin’s flip-flopping opportunistic ways. As for the Jewish vote, I’m sure my friends they will be equally intrigued with Palin’s support of the Jews for Jesus groups and her dominionist views. Speaking of that As for myself. if Sen. McCain does win I shall go to bed everynight and pray for his good health.
Lee, just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean we aren’t out to get you. You’re being watched.
P.S. If you’d like to start a discussion, stop waiting for this info to “come out” and bring it out yourself. I look forward to reading it.
Phillip, I just pass on what I have, and I haven’t seen any state-by-state on battleground states. Just the two things I shared.
Taking that to another level — while Phillip and I agree that the state-by-state is what matters, can we agree that the state-by-state is what SHOULD matter?
That one was a tough question to get folks to agree on in November 2000, but right now, when we don’t know how this one is going to come out, how are we feeling about that old Electoral College?
Maybe I should make this a separate post…
There are plenty of state by state breakdowns available. Yahoo and Real Clear Politics both have multiple ways to show the electoral vote.
It’s going to come down to Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri. Maybe New Hampshire if it gets REALLY tight.
No Florida this time… too many retirees looking to vote for a guy who’s older than they are.
Doug, I think you have it about right. Iowa (ethonal issue favors Obama) and New Mexico (huge Hispanic vote will go to Obama), 2 Gore states that Kerry lost, are likely to switch back to the dems. That means Obama needs to pick up about 10 more electorial votes without losing any of the Kerry states. Many states are very close right now. If there is some type of surprise or if the economy really tanks in the next month this could be more one sided that it looks right now. But I’m betting on a close election. With high job losses in the midwest I’m betting on Obama ecking out a close win in Ohio to put him over the top.
Doug, I think you have it about right. Iowa (ethonal issue favors Obama) and New Mexico (huge Hispanic vote will go to Obama), 2 Gore states that Kerry lost, are likely to switch back to the dems. That means Obama needs to pick up about 10 more electorial votes without losing any of the Kerry states. Many states are very close right now. If there is some type of surprise or if the economy really tanks in the next month this could be more one sided that it looks right now. But I’m betting on a close election. With high job losses in the midwest I’m betting on Obama ecking out a close win in Ohio to put him over the top.
Iowa = ethanol corporate welfare vs patriotism for McCain
New Mexico = too many Indians in welfare captivity and too many illegal alien voters
Florida = Jews and military vote against the pro-AlQaeda-Hamas Democrats
Radical lawyer for Malcolm X, Percy Sutton, claims that he got Obama into Harvard Law School by pulling strings, and Khalid Monsour paid Obama’s way.
Sutton owns this TV station in New York City.
Sutton got his money from Nigeria.
Kahlid Monsour gets his money from Nigeria and from Saudi Prince Alweed. Monsour sits on the board of a foundation which funded Obama’s job as “community organizer”.
Percy Sutton bragging about it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EcC0QAd0Ug
That’s another reason why I question McCain’s decision on Palin — what blue states will Palin help him win? Romney could have given him a better shot in some states.
That’s also why Sanford never had a shot. He wouldn’t bring a single electoral vote.
fivethirtyeight.com is the best site I’ve found for all things poll-related including the Electoral College.
I still think most polls are inaccurate because they poll “likely voters” based on who voted and in what demographic numbers last time around. This year things appear to be different. 38-40 million people watched Obama’s, McCain’s and Palin’s speeches–those are unprecedented numbers. Polls don’t allow for the intense interest in this campaign.
Polls can be notoriously wrong. In 1936 The Literary Review conducted a poll that showed Alf Landon defeating FDR in a landslide. Instead, FDR won by his own landslide.
The demographics of this year’s candidates, the vitriole and enthusiasm on both sides, the extraordinary combination of crises and near-crises we are faced with, and the remarkable access to information voters have via the Internet are all factors that will likely impact the outcome. I don’t know of any polls that correct for these factors.
I have the feeling, since bud thinks it will go down to the wire, that this election will turn into a McCain-Palin landslide. My wife says everybody at Curves likes Palin.
Palin taps the silent majority.
Now I can mow my grass in peace.
A person that served his country in a time of an unpopular war and was captured and would not take an easy way out by being awarded preferential treatment because his father was an Admiral, is someone that can be trusted with the survival of our country against any aggression.
I feel sure that he learned in those years in captivity lessons that none of us will ever come close to understanding. Pride of country, pride of yourself, not givening up your being able to come home and look your family and fellow comrades in the eye and never having to say ” I am sorry”. A person that has endured such in his life is more able to compromise when it is necessary.
Obama cannot come close to being the man that McCain has become.
Our country needs to get down to basics. We either perserve the integrity of this great nation or we give it to reperations. Let us not think for a minute that the plans that Obama have for this country is not basically about reperations. Take from the rich and give to the poor. That will not help the poor. It will only put them a day older and deeper in debt. The American dream is still available to those that want to get and education and work for promotion and a better way of life.
Slugger, that’s nothing but the GOP talking points. The proof is in the pudding. McCain was a very selfish, self-centered hedonist after he came back to the states. Based on his life in the late 70s he simply cannot be trusted. Then he confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt how untrustworthy he is with his involvement in the Keating 5. He’s a fraud trying to fool people with this endless POW talk. I’m not buying it.
Of course you’re not buying it, bud. You wouldn’t buy it if McCain walked on water, parted the Red Sea and fed the world with three fish and one moldy slice of cheese. You just take the Democrat talking points to extremes.
Obama says in his autobiography that he cut school to drink beer, smoke pot and snort cocaine. Is that hedonist enough?
McCain leading 58% to 38 in NC.
Women voters have swung from 7% for Obama to 13% now for McCain, 20 points in one week.
Union support for Obama has slipped below 44%.