No offense to Vic Rawl, and I’d like to find out I’m wrong, but I’m having a bit of trouble believing this info he’s releasing is accurate:
New SCIndex/Crantford Poll Shows Rawl Within 7
DeMint Showing is “Tepid” in Head-to-Head Test
COLUMBIA, SC, April 25, 2010 — A new SCIndex/Crantford poll released today shows well-funded incumbent Jim DeMint is far more vulnerable to challenger Vic Rawl than expected. The poll showed DeMint’s lead at only seven points, despite DeMint’s great advantage in name recognition.
The poll, conducted last week among 438 voters likely to vote in November’s general election, has DeMint leading only 50-43 against Rawl, a retired Circuit Court judge and state legislator. Less than half of those surveyed said they were likely to vote for DeMint’s re-election, a result the poll called “well below the marks of a strong incumbent.”
Rawl spokesman Walter Ludwig said that the poll was not surprising. “South Carolinians know that despite his show-pony turns on cable news, Jim DeMint has not delivered for them. This poll shows that voters are uneasy about DeMint’s radical stands, and are hungry for common sense from Judge Rawl,” he said.
The full polling memo is available at http://scindex.blogspot.com/.
Of course, I have nothing to go by but my gut, but it would surprise me greatly to find out that Sen. DeMint is even that vulnerable to a relatively unknown (so far) challenger. What do y’all think?
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I had trouble remembering his name until just recently–perhaps this summer when he pulled out front cable-news-wise. He really hasn’t been the kind of take-care-of-the folks-at-home kind of Senator we’re used to, while Lindsay G reputedly has great constituent service. Maybe that’s it?
The other possibility is that he has offended southern notions of politesse, as Joe Wilson did. Graham may not be as “pure” as some conservatives would like, but he is generally polite and dignified. At least in recent years….
I’ll take all bets and pay 2-1 that Mr. Rawl doesn’t come within 10 points of DeMint. It’ll probably be more like 20-25.
It’s like that old saying that you can prove anything with the right set of statistics or Bible verse. (in this case poll).
What people wouldn’t know from reading that release is that SCIndex is produced by two prominent Democratic consulting firms in Columbia.
I believe this will serve to maybe get some more money flowing Vic Rawl’s way–as of now, I’m pretty sure most Democrats figure Rawl for a sacrificial candidate the way the guy who ran against Lindsey was…
The DeMint/Rawl race is not even ranked by the 538 website. That means it has a less than 7% chance of a party switch, probably less than 5%. DeMint is pretty safe but it could get somewhat interesting if the national economy picks up AND the SC economy remains stagnant. Not likely though.
DeMint is not vulnerable. Period. Dot.
Doug Ross:
I’ll take the bet.
Walter Ludwig
Campaign Manager
Vic Rawl for US Senate
Walter,
Let me know how much you want to bet. I’ll even give you 10-1 odds. Maybe even 100-1. Let’s make it 1000-1.
Considering Mr. Rawl couldn’t win his primary against an unemployed veteran, he might have some trouble getting within a half million votes.
http://www.thestate.com/2010/06/08/1323259/scs-demint-cruises-to-gop-senate.html
I’m guessing that the SCIndex/Crantford polling company had McCain over Obama in a landslide.
The question is, how can a SCIndex/Crantford poll have Rawl within 7 points on April 25, yet on May 27 a Public Policy Poll showed Rawl was unknown 82% of the voters? They showed Demint leading by 19 points. Furthermore, PPP polled 1225 voters, which is a heck of a lot better sample, and much more representative of the state, than only 438. I’m wondering how the SCIndex/Crantford poll came up with its sample size.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_527.pdf