It appears that the Democrats got a modest bounce from last week’s convention, but the opposition refuses to be impressed, according to the WashPost:
BOSTON — Acknowledging Monday that President Obama has seen a surge in voter support since last week’s Democratic National Convention, the Romney campaign’s pollster likened the bounce to a “sugar high” and argued that the Republican challenger has a long-term advantage over the president.
Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney’s pollster and senior strategist, wrote a memorandum released to reporters to rebut the conventional wisdom that Romney has fallen behind in the presidential race and to calm any panic among supporters. In the memo, Newhouse wrote that Obama “has seen a bounce from his convention” but contended that the president’s approval ratings are likely to recede in the weeks ahead.
“Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling,” Newhouse wrote. “While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.”
According to several new national polls, after months of deadlock, Obama opened a lead over Romney after last week’s Democratic convention in Charlotte. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday, 47 percent of likely voters supported Obama and 43 percent Romney. In a Gallup tracking poll, Obama leads Romney 49 percent to 44 percent, while an automated Rasmussen poll released Monday put Obama at 50 percent and Romney at 45 percent….
“Ultimate downfall?” Really. It looks like maybe Jim DeMint is acting as scriptwriter for Mr. Newhouse. Here I thought we were just facing an election. The Romney team seems to be planning something more on the order of Götterdämmerung. I can see Mitt in his helicopter now, cranking up the Wagner and explaining, “It scares the hell out of the libs… but our boys love it!“
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One can only hope it’s the twilight of the gods of unfettered capitalism!
(How’s that for dramatic hyperbole?)
Mr. Newhouse is doing his job to put the best possible spin on some really depressing numbers for his candidate. It is possible, even likely that Obama’s lead will dwindle a bit but let’s keep in mind Romney had his VP and convention bounces recently so everything should wash out in a week or so. Nate Silver for one has become much more bullish on Obama’s chances since this time last week. There’s a long time to go yet but Romney’s chances now rest almost entirely on two terrible jobs reports or an October surprise such as Israel bombing Iran. If the status quo remains Romney’s goose is cooked.
And I don’t see how Israel bombing Iran would automatically benefit Romney. It would create a volatile situation in which anything could happen. But I could see that redounding to the incumbent’s benefit as easily as going the other way, depending on how the situation is handled.
Brad, I agree but any shakeup is an opportunity for the trailing candidate.
A national poll is pretty much meaningless. Only state by state polls matter.
In more good news for the president, momentum-wise, his campaign just raised more money than Romney’s for the first time in four months…
And Doug, yes, the winner has to win in the battleground states. But unless most of those electoral votes defy the national trend, it looks tough for Romney.
You might find it interesting to play around with this interactive map the LATimes has created. It lets you try out various scenarios. Basically, if Obama wins Florida, he just needs one more state, even the smallest, among the battleground states, even if Romney wins all the others. For that matter, Romney can win Florida, and Obama can still win with only three of the smaller states — say Iowa, Virginia and Ohio (which gives him four more electoral votes than he needs).
From this point, an awful lot has to break Romney’s way.
@Brad
I agree. It’s Obama’s to lose.
But that sort of negates the whole “Wealthy Republicans are buying the election” meme some people beat to death, doesn’t it? Elections can’t be bought unless the spending is an order of magnitude greater than that of ones opponent.
The return on investment for campaign spending is very poor once you get beyond a baseline amount.
I played around with the map. I think there are some states that are still in play that the LA Times has already given to Obama – Pennsylvania for one. I can’t believe Obama is up 8 points there unless there is HEAVY turnout in Philly.
If I were running Romney’s campaign, I’d throw all the money into Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Those four would get him to 271-267. Bring out the big guns in Florida like Jeb Bush and Rudy Giuliani (for the transplanted snowbirds) and maybe get Tim Tebow, Steve Spurrier, and Bobby Bowden to endorse Romney. Then let Romney/Ryan hang out in the Virginia/Ohio/Pennsylvania area for the next two months.
Sorry Doug but you’re wrong about PA. Unless the Republicans can make good on their voter suppression efforts Pennsylvania is a lock for Obama. He also has small leads in all the battlegrounds except NC. This could get very blue if Romney can’t somehow find a miracle. His chance to connect with voters in a positive way has faded. I predict the same map as 2008 except for Indiana and maybe NC.