Drat.
To borrow from an SNL skit, this is something you can put under the heading of White People’s Problems.
While others at this conference were out playing golf and having fun, I was sitting here in my room in this Key West resort overlooking the aquamarine water, sweating away over my presentation for the panel discussion tomorrow.
In their longest form, my notes were 1,825 words in length, so I pared and whittled, and got it down so it glittered and shone.
And the upshot? After all the hemming and hawing GOP voters have done over the last few months, Romney has it sewn up.
But then I started looking at these polls Gingrich has been touting today:
ICYMI: Recent Polls Show Newt as
Clear Conservative Alternative in SC
Three recent polls show Newt Gingrich emerging as the clear conservative alternative to Mitt Romney in South Carolina.
An American Research Group (ARG) poll shows Newt Gingrich closing the gap with Mitt Romney to just four points in South Carolina, while support for Rick Santorum has collapsed from 24% to just 7% in 7 days.
The results: Romney 29%. Gingrich 25%. Paul 20%. Perry 9%. Santorum 7%. Huntsman 1%. Other 2%. Undecided 7%.
These polls reinforce trends that show Gingrich emerging as the clear conservative alternative to Mitt Romney in South Carolina.
· Evangelical Support. Gingrich has a commanding lead among evangelical Christians with 40% support compared to Governor Perry with 15% in second.
· Tea Party Support. Gingrich leads amongst supporters of the Tea party 28% to Governor Romney’s 24%.
Meanwhile, Governor Romney is losing his support amongst independents to Ron Paul, suggesting that the Governor’s support amongst independents is not strong, and would be lost to President Obama in the general election.
Poll Results: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/sc/
This poll from ARG echoes the findings of two other recent polls.
An Insider Advantage Poll from January 11th shows Newt Gingrich in a statistical tie with Governor Romney with 21% support to the Governor’s 23%. Rick Santorum has faded to 14% support, with Ron Paul at 13%, Jon Huntsman at 7% and Rick Perry at 5%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0111.pdf
A Rasumussen Poll from January 12th also shows Newt Gingrich well ahead of Rick Santorum and Ron Paul with 21% support compared to their 16%. The poll results are available here.
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And I started to fret. Gingrich has mo. Here we have all these pols from all over the country ready to hear me in the morning, and what if I make a prediction that was completely off? David Yepsen is here. Today, a guy with PBS was asking me on the phone, “Who is the David Yepsen of South Carolina.” I resisted the temptation to say, “You’re talkin’ to him, baby!”
In any case, the actual David Yepsen (he’s the Brad Warthen of Iowa) is here, and I’m about to make a fool of myself in front of him.
So I started making phone calls to Republicans whose judgment I trust in South Carolina. And the very first one I reached said there’s no way this thing is sewn up, that there’s movement and Gingrich is impressing people.
He said he suspects Romney is going to fail in South Carolina for the same reason he failed with our voters four years ago.
Why is that, I asked?
“Because he’s a plastic banana rock ‘n’ roller.”
What does that mean, I croaked?
It means South Carolinians look at him and see a phony.
Oh.
Anyway, I’m scrapping my presentation for tomorrow. I’m going to wing it. Here’s hoping my “winging-it privileges” haven’t been revoked.
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South Carolina could indeed get a bit close over the next week. But it’s too late. Romney will eke one out here then close the deal once and for all in Florida. Bank on it:
Romney 1-5
Paul 5-1
Gingrich 5-1
Santorum 6-1
Huntsman 20-1
Perry 75-1
Well after eight robo-calls today (or more — I stopped counting at eight), I’ve just decided I’m voting for whoever calls me the least number of times before the primary. John McCain just called me for Romney, so Romney’s not looking too good right now.
I’d kind of like to see the whole thing picked up, shaken, then dumped, like a cup of dice.
I keep hoping that all those tea partiers and independents will walk into their polling places, decide they can’t hold their noses any longer, and write in “none of the above.” Or think, “Jon Huntsman didn’t advertise that much, he must not have money. Guess that means he ain’t bought!” and vote for him.
Since both outcomes require the application of common sense, I’m not holding my breath in anticipation of either…
South Carolina actually seems to prefer the phony political candidates; probably all the way back to Andrew Jackson.
Jon Huntsman is probably the richest candidate in the race. Not that there is any problem with that.
Have you considered Colbert? According to him, he’s polling higher than Huntsman. With the exception of Huntsman I think he would be the better candidate.
@ Karen– Do you actually like Huntsman, or are you saying he’s the least of evils?
I don’t understand how people who consider themselves to be a conservative back Mitt Romney when if you do any research at all you find what he really stands for. I can understand changing your postion on 1 or 2 issues, but not on the majority of them as he does. Watch these videos and you’ll meet the real Flip Romney.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JLMJHsSaKU&feature=related
Has the Presidential Primary become a contest based solely on popularity and electibility, so much so that we are willing to
exclude qualifications and consistency in our decision process? What good will this do if the person we end up electing is not much further to the right than Obama? Now do you really believe you can trust Romney, that you want to vote for him?!
Top 5 Contributors for Mitt Romney 2011
1 Goldman Sachs $367,200
2 Credit Suisse Group $203,750
3 Morgan Stanley $199,800
4 HIG Capital $186,500
5 Barclays $157,750
Kathryn, He’s a neevil. A lesser neevil. Colbert is almost certainly the better candidate, as demonstrated by his personal track record (rather than his pompous persona).
Colbert for President!
Now that they’ve eliminated the truly insane,which worst form of crazy can you handle,and does it manner?
One of these idiots will take SC.There’s not much point in keeping up with this brown-word,unless you want to count how many times Newt can say,’Reagan’…
All of them:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T1heDyUeFw&feature=related
Actually, the Mittster is the wealthiest GOP candidate this time around. Huntsman’s father is a near-billionaire, but the son has a measly $ 50 mil or so. Ron Paul has the lowest net worth of any Republican; he’s worth around $ 2 mil.