A certain regular correspondent whose first name is Samuel brought to my attention this piece from The Jerusalem Post. It’s by Caroline Glick, a writer with whom I am unfamiliar (maybe y’all will have time to read her past columns; I can’t do that on a Friday), and it’s headlined, "The Abandonment of the Jews." An excerpt:
The US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on
Iran’s nuclear intentions is the political version of a tactical
nuclear strike on efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear bombs.
The
NIE begins with the sensationalist opening line: "We judge with high
confidence that in fall 2003, Teheran halted its nuclear weapons
program." But the rest of the report contradicts the lead sentence. For
instance, the second line says, "We also assess with moderate-to-high
confidence that Teheran at a minimum is keeping open the option to
develop nuclear weapons."
Indeed, contrary to that earth-shattering opening, the NIE
acknowledges that the Iranians have an active nuclear program and that
they are between two and five years away from nuclear capabilities.
While I was there, I also glanced over this piece by David Horovitz, headlined "Bushwhacked." An excerpt:
But beyond the headlines, a close reading of the
material released from the National Intelligence Estimate offers little
legitimate reason for any sense of relief. Quite the opposite. Along
with the opening judgment that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program
in 2003 comes the immediate caveat that "Teheran at a minimum is
keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons." And then, just a
few paragraphs later, comes an undermining of the original,
headline-making assessment. The authors acknowledge that "because of
intelligence gaps" they can "assess with only moderate confidence that
the halt to these activities represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear
weapons program."
After that, the reservations and flat-out terrifying
assessments in this supposedly sanguine estimate flow thick and fast.
The authors state in their opening paragraphs alone: "We do not know
whether [Iran] currently intends to develop nuclear weapons." "We
cannot rule out that Iran has acquired from abroad – or will acquire in
the future – a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon."
"We assess centrifuge enrichment is how Iran probably could first
produce enough fissile material for a weapon, if it decides to do so.
Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January
2006 … [and] made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges
at Natanz."
It occurs to me that when your very survival depends on sound intelligence, you tend to look at these things a little harder, and more critically, than Americans do. Ms. Glick sums up the stakes for Israel in this passage:
Many commentators applauded the Annapolis
conference, claiming that its real aim was to cement a US-led coalition
including Israel and the Arabs against Iran. These voices argued that
it made sense for Israel to agree to negotiate on bad terms in exchange
for such a coalition. But the NIE shows that the US double-crossed
Israel. By placing the bait of a hypothetical coalition against Iran,
the US extracted massive Israeli concessions to the Palestinians and
then turned around and abandoned Israel on Iran as well. What this
means is that not only has the US cut Israel off as an ally, it is
actively working against the Jewish state.