Category Archives: S.C. Democratic Primary

The Hillary cartoon that wasn’t

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L
ast night, while I was making the rounds of campaign HQs in Columbia, it suddenly hit me that I needed to come in and revamp the editorial page for today, which at that point had gone to the pressroom hours earlier.

The first thing that hit me was that a couple of passages in my column for today were wrong — more about that in a minute. But the thing that would have really hit you in the eye and make you wonder what we’d been smoking was Robert Ariail’s cartoon. What you see above is what would have landed on your doorstep today if I hadn’t gone back in to the office a little before 10 p.m.

When Robert had left for the day, the cartoon was as fine as prognostication could make it. The polls almost uniformly had said, right up until the day of the New Hampshire primary, that Obama and McCain were going to win up there, and that Obama would win by a bigger margin than McCain. All of the talk about Democratic Party insiders was about how Mrs. Clinton would probably have to skip South Carolina, conceding it to Obama, and concentrate on the big states coming up in February.

By 8:30 or so, it was becoming obvious that even if Obama won New Hampshire, it would be close. An hour later, it was looking increasingly like Hillary had achieved an upset win. And this morning, I have yet to find anyone who offers a plausible explanation as to why that happened. People mention the tears, but to me, that remains implausible. I guess I just don’t want to admit voters can be so swayed by something that that. Perhaps I should know better.

Here’s the cartoon I put in place of the Hillary one (it’s also reproduced below) — fortunately, Robert had finished it earlier in the day, only deciding to do the Clinton one late. All I had to do was scan it in and put it on the page.

Due to a glitch in software that automatically searches for each day’s cartoon and puts it on thestate.com, some of you may have already seen the Hillary cartoon. But we’ve fixed that, and at least I was able to keep it out of the paper.

Oh, yes, here are the changes I had to make in my column. Originally, the relevant passage in my column went like this:

    Let’s do Republicans first, since y’all face S.C. voters first (on the 19th) and come back to the Democrats (assuming, of course, that Barack Obama hasn’t sewn up the nomination before this column lands on your doorstep).
    We’d like some specifics beyond the vehement claims that pretty much each and every one of you is “the real conservative” in the race.
    We’ll start with John McCain, the likely winner (as I type this) in New Hampshire Tuesday.

Once again, that was based on the best info available at the time our page needed to go to meet our normal production schedule. Here’s what it changed to:

    Let’s do Republicans first, since y’all face S.C. voters first (on the 19th) and come back to the Democrats (after the cliffhanger night Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton just went through, they could probably do with a rest today).
    We’d like some specifics beyond the vehement claims that pretty much each and every one of you is “the real conservative” in the race.
    We’ll start with John McCain, the big winner in New Hampshire Tuesday.

As the world keeps changing several times a day over the next couple of weeks, this sort of thing is likely to keep happening. I just hope I can always catch it before an error is published.

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So how come it didn’t work for Muskie?

Reading this morning about Hillary Clinton getting all emotional the day before in New Hampshire, I just thought, "Well, she did a Muskie," and put it out of my mind as I went on with my day.

But tonight, when I heard someone on the telly speculate as to whether that was what caused her upset squeaker victory tonight, I realized we have just entered the Double Standard Zone: Ed Muskie cries in New Hampshire, he’s toast. Hillary cries in New Hampshire, she gets a come-from-behind victory.

The cynic in me wonders whether she got any coaching on this from Bill. I need to see the video: Did she bite her lip, or give the thumbs-up? But ultimately I doubt that.

I also doubt that the touchy-feely incident was what put her over the top. But then, maybe it’s just because that stuff doesn’t appeal to me. I asked Inez Tenenbaum (an Obama supporter) whether she thought it was possible that the incident had an effect on the outcome, and she didn’t rule it out. She thinks it helped humanize Mrs. Clinton.

Well, whatever caused her win, things are going to be very interesting down in South Carolina, and it’s hard to predict who’s going to be crying when it’s all over. 

South Carolina just became more important — to everybody

Tonight’s surprise-twist ending in New Hampshire tonight just upped the odds at stake in South Carolina. No more talk about Hillary skipping South Carolina; she’s going to be going for a knockout punch; Obama will be if anything even more determined to win here.

Over on the Republican side, after a split decision between Iowa and N.H., South Carolina is looking more make-or-break for everybody.

I left the office tonight intending to drop by the McCain and Obama results-watching parties, having received e-mail notices of both. On the way, I stopped by the Romney HQ on Gervais when I saw the lights on. My timing wasn’t the greatest. The first place I had stopped leaving work was my daughter’s house, to visit the babies, and I didn’t realize what was happening in N.H. until I got to Romney’s place — just as Mr. Romney was on the tube giving his concession speech (rather gracefully, the part I heard). After asking Will Holley again to try to nail down a time for an endorsement interview ASAP, I bowed out.

The McCain gathering was a real party, the only one I saw tonight. Henry McMaster, and pretty much everybody I talked to, said there was now no question about it — McCain was going to win S.C. Of course, Romney and Huckabee (who was leading polls here last time I looked) will do their best to have something to say about that.

On the way to Obama HQ, I tried getting Zac Wright on the phone to see if there was a Clinton celebration somewhere, but no luck. The mood at Obama’s place was subdued, but not the end of the world. They, too, say they’re going to win here.

In any case, everybody on all sides are going to be busting their buns to do that, even harder that we thought when today began.

Whoa! Looks like Zogby did his sums wrong

Hey, wait a minute! Wasn’t Obama supposed to run away with this thing tonight, while McCain was supposed to win by a relatively smaller margin on the GOP side? Wasn’t tonight supposed to spell the end for Hillary Clinton?

Sure, the results are not all in yet on the Democratic side as I write this, but what’s happening is far from what I expected, point spreadwise.

That’s what I get for putting too much stock in Zogby. Here’s what he had as of this morning:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll: Obama, McCain Enjoy Solid Leads As Election Day Dawns

UTICA, New York — The big momentum behind Democrat Barack Obama, a senator from Illinois who is seeking his party’s presidential nomination, continued up to the last hours before voters head to the polls to cast ballots in the New Hampshire primary election, a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows. Fed by a strong win in the Iowa caucuses Thursday, Obama leads with 42% support, compared to 29% for rival Sen. Hillary Clinton.
    In the Republican primary race, Arizona Sen. John McCain extended his lead over rival Mitt Romney from five to nine percentage points since yesterday, the survey shows.
    Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards mostly held steady, winning 17% support, though he has begun to lose steam. Though he won the Republican Iowa caucus Thursday, Mike Huckabee found himself in the same position as Edwards, unable to build Obama-like momentum and stuck in third – a distant third in Huckabee’s case….

OK, so he wasn’t so far off on the GOP side — he had McCain beating Romney 36-27 percent — but the Democratic contest doesn’t look anything like what anyone expected.

Dave Barry meets Dick Harpootlian

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Thought y’all might enjoy checking out this column, headlined "Harpootlian to take New Hampshire," by funnyman Dave Barry that appeared in The Miami Herald Saturday. In it, Dave has no end of fun — with Dick’s name:

    The political landscape has been severely shaken up. To help you
understand what is going on, here’s a summary of the situation, with
key names and concepts in capital letters:

    On the Democratic
side, HILLARY CLINTON, who was the FRONT-RUNNER based on her EXTENSIVE
EXPERIENCE being married to her HUSBAND, BILL CLINTON, totally got
pulverized in Iowa by BARACK OBAMA, who has been a U.S. SENATOR for
like FIFTEEN MINUTES during which he acquired many NEW IDEAS such as
CHANGE.

    Also he has a supporter named DICK HARPOOTLIAN, which has to be one of the best supporter names ever…

And to think, people accuse me of being shallow in my analysis…

If Dave only knew some of the stories about Dick — especially the ones he tells on himself — he’d have all sorts of fun. He would have to use one of his stock punchlines — "I am not making this up" — so often, he’d wear it out.

Oh, by the way, in keeping with the in-depth reporting you’ve come to expect on this blog, here’s video of Dick talking about his support for Barack Obama. (This was at the Colbert brunch back in October, previously reported here):