Raining in the 1st District


At 12:52 p.m., the SC Democratic Party Tweeted out the above picture, saying,

It’s raining in #SC01 so we need you to get on the call tool NOW!!!

Yeah, I’m not sure what that means. “Call tool” sounds like what someone whose first language is not English would call a telephone, but the Tweet included a link to this.

In any case, I don’t know that this weather means. Normally, a challenger (which is what Elizabeth Colbert Busch is in this case) needs everything to be perfect to turn out her support in order to turn out the entrenched power (which in this case is Mark Sanford, but it would be true of any Republican in this district).

But… there were all those rumblings — speculation, mostly — about normally reliable GOP voters just staying home this time, on account of Sanford fatigue. (Which is why Sanford has been trying to terrify them with his huge photo of Nancy Pelosi.) The rain would give them an excuse not to bother.

I don’t know. My gut says this hurts the Democrat. But I just don’t know. And neither does anyone else. People say all kinds of thing about the effects of whether on an election, but I don’t find it to be a reliable predictor. It just gives people something to yammer about all day while they wait for results.

43 thoughts on “Raining in the 1st District

    1. bud

      Listen to the Rythm of the Falling Rain by the Cascades is pretty good. Or Raindrops keep Falling on My Head by B.J. Thomas.

  1. Doug Ross

    November Rain by Guns & Roses… featuring Slash
    Fire & Rain by James Taylor (this one may be my favorite)

  2. Brad Warthen Post author

    I might be with you on “Fire and Rain,” Doug. I didn’t think of that.

    Of course, it’s not technically ABOUT rain. But then, neither is “Who’ll Stop the Rain?” Not that I can tell you exactly what it IS about…

  3. bud

    There are also songs with prominent lines about rain – McArthur Park (Who left the cake out in the Rain) and Escape (Usually known as the Pina Colada Song) – (Getting caught in the Rain).

  4. Brad Warthen Post author

    Before I looked that up, I would have sworn that was a Hank Williams song. But then, I tend to think he wrote any and all true country classics. He was awesome, but others did some good work as well…

  5. Brad Warthen Post author

    Just got a call from E.J. Dionne of The Washington Post (and Brookings Institution). We batted the breeze for about 15 minutes. He said he was sorry I was under the weather (showing he’s keeping up with the blog, as everyone should), but mostly we talked about the election today.

    I wish I’d had some pearls of wisdom for him.

    One thing I did stress to him, and he agreed — it would be a mistake for national media to try to extrapolate something about national politics out of this. It’s all about Mark Sanford. Either people are tired enough of him for this GOP district to go for a Democrat, or they’re not.

    Since other congressional races across the country are not likely to feature Mark Sanford, this is not likely to mean much in terms of future control of the House or anything.

    By the way, some of E.J.’s colleagues at the Post have written the same… They sort of had fun with it this morning in a blog post, calling the race “Seinfeldian” — in that, from a national perspective, it’s about nothing.

  6. Norm Ivey

    Rainy Day Women # 12 and 35. Nothing to do with rain, but appropriate for politics, I think.

    Rainy Night in Georgia and Rain on the Roof for real rain songs.

  7. Norm Ivey

    Nate Silver of 538 is predicting Sanford not on polls but on demographics. He also tweeted: “Haven’t written much about Sanford v Colbert-Busch race because I haven’t had anything very interesting to say about it.”

  8. Brad Warthen Post author

    I didn’t realize how much trouble Elizabeth Colbert Busch has had communicating WHO SHE IS until I read this at Politico today:

    SPECIAL ELECTION IN SOUTH CAROLINA: It’s been one of the most high-profile special House elections in recent history: former Republican Gov. Mark Sanford versus Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, brother of Stephen Colbert. Heading into today’s special election, Sanford—whose campaign was rocked by allegations that Sanford had trespassed at his ex-wife’s house a few weeks ago—seems to be regaining ground against Colbert Busch.

    Gee, I thought she was his sister

    1. Doug Ross

      I dunno. A cross dressing Democrat might have been able to generate more votes…

    2. die deutsche Flußgabelung

      I think the typo says more about Politico’s crappy journalism and less about ECB’s arms-length approach to the media.

  9. Silence

    results are coming in – Sanford by a nose with 34% reporting… very close race thus far!

    1. Steven Davis II

      Let the whining begin!!!

      Maybe Colbert can go back and regroup and run for something like school board or her local homeowners association before trying for a federal slot.

  10. Mark Stewart

    Another sad day for SC. Not even Mississippi can string together so many self-inflicted errors; despite Silence’s belief.

    1. Steven Davis II

      What are you sad about? That someone with experience got the job over someone who figured she could do some on the job training?

  11. Doug Ross

    To win an election against a very flawed opponent with a demographic advantage, you have to define yourself, not just tell people how awful the other person is. Vincent Sheheen tried the same tactic and failed against an even weaker candidate.

    1. Mark Stewart

      That’s true, Doug. Still doesn’t excuse the impulse to vote for Sanford just because he “sounds” like a libertarian.

  12. Silence

    Holy crap, did we just re-elect Mark Sanford? I thought we were voting for Fred Sanford!

    You big dummy.

    1. Silence

      Ow my heart. I think I’m having a heart attack. You hear that Maria? I’m coming to join you honey.

  13. Doug Ross

    Did someone actually pay for the PPP polling that showed Colbert-Busch with a 9 point lead? I think they also picked Clemson to beat USC the last four years, right?

    1. Brad Warthen Post author

      Actually, it could have been right at the time. It was right after the trespassing thing.

      Which is in and of itself a testimony to the weak reasons that people vote the ways they do. (Or SAY they’re going to vote a certain way.)

      Jenny filing that charge against Mark was NOT a legitimate reason for anyone to vote against him. Nor was his ridiculous cabaret with the life-sized picture of Nancy Pelosi a reason to vote against his opponent (or a reason to do anything but laugh).

      But such things do move voters. Which makes me really wonder about this whole democracy thing sometimes…

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