South Carolina’s no-win situation

Mark Stewart wrote this morning that “SC sure did draw the short straw this election cycle! The state has a no-win situation ahead of it.”

Yes, it does. And I’m concerned that once again, as in 2012, we’re going to fail to clarify the contest and point to the eventual winner on the GOP side, which is what we do best. Or what we did best, from 1980 through 2008.

On the Democratic side… Hillary Clinton will still win here (I see no repeat of 2008 there, either), but she’d better beat Bernie by as much as he beat her in New Hampshire. Which… is a mighty tall order. I mean, look at those percentages. So I doubt we’ll restore her to full inevitability.

And on the Republican… Last night, I was thinking, Way to go, Robot Boy, screwing up in that last debate!

But I oversimplify. Kasich had laid the groundwork for victory there. (And yes, coming in first among the real candidates counts as a victory, wherever Trump ended up.)

Whatever the reason, the GOP suffered a serious setback in its quest for a sane alternative. If Rubio could have come in second in New Hampshire after his strong showing in Iowa, the scene would be set for the other “Establishment” candidates to start lining up behind him. That most definitely did not happen — Bush, of all people, beat him!

And there’s just not enough time between now and Feb. 20 for that to get sorted out.

So… Trump will win here, there seems little doubt, and Cruz will be right behind him. Rubio still has a good shot at “winning” third place, although maybe after New Hampshire South Carolina Republicans will remember than they’ve always loved them some Bushes. In any case, even if Rubio finishes a strong third here, it won’t be enough to restore his mo.

I don’t think clarity will emerge until after Super Tuesday, and probably not then. I’d like to see it happen here — I’d love to see us get our touch back here in SC — but it seems unlikely.

But you know, we’ve got 10 days to go. And as we’ve learned over the last few months, anything can happen. Anything

7 thoughts on “South Carolina’s no-win situation

  1. Barry

    It was ultimately Rubio’s own fault- as he said last night.

    What Chris Christie was trying to do to Rubio, I don’t understand. Christie had no chance – and hasn’t had a chance in a long time. His ego wouldn’t allow him to accept the facts as they were so he spent all his time ripping Rubio worse than he would have ripped Putin and all it did was help hurt Rubio- and ultimately Christie.

    Now Christie is quitting today- as we all knew he would at some point. He had no chance to win. He wasted his money, his time, and the time of the people who elected him to be their governor.

    He also helped to trip up Rubio (Rubio played into it), and Trump is well on his way.

    Jeb Bush has no chance. I’ve never actually met anyone that would vote for him- and everyone in my family would vote in the Republican primary.

    Kasich? Like him, but he has less than a zero chance.

    The often married, serial womanizer, former pro abortion, pro partial birth abortion, pro gun control, Hillary buddy Donald Trump is now the favorite son of supposedly conservative voters.

    a lot of hypocrites out there.

      1. Mark Stewart

        Then Rubio should have been ready for it. He isn’t “seasoned”; and doesn’t seem too smart or too quick.

  2. Barry

    One more thing – I knew Christie had no chance when he came to Haley’s 2nd inaugural.

    When I saw him essentially wobbling down the stairs, I remember thinking at that moment that he would never be elected President, and wouldn’t win the nomination.

  3. Doug Ross

    Why would the South Carolina Democratic primary matter at all from a national perspective? It’s like being the best college football team in Alaska. SC Democrats are basically going to go whichever direction the black community goes. Obama in 2008 was a lock. He won by 28 points. Can Hillary come close to that in a two person race (Edwards got 18% in 2008)? Are we REALLY sure that 60% of Democrats will vote for her? What impact will what will likely be a much lower black turnout have?

    I’d say Bernie has a chance if his supporters here can get out and push for him. Hillary is in the “oh well, she’s not a Republican” category now. Make the case Sander-nistas! You have a chance to actually change things. Hillary will be more of what we have seen for the past eight years. Was that transformative enough for you?

    1. Doug Ross

      It really does boggle my mind how ANYONE could vote for Hillary. She’s as bad a choice as Trump would be. $20 million in speaking fees after leaving office. Isn’t she part of the 1% you all rail against? And what makes it worse is that she earned that money without creating a single job for anyone else. At least Trump creates jobs.

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