Category Archives: Elections

Vic Rawl statement about Alvin Greene

This just in — an e-mailed statement from the very stunned Vic Rawl regarding the guy who beat him Tuesday:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Statement by Judge Vic Rawl

Judge Vic Rawl issued the following statement today:
It has been an eventful three days for our state.
The results of the Senate primary on Election Day surprised almost everyone in the state, apparently including Mr. Greene.
There are a number of serious allegations out there about the election. No one yet knows if they are true.
I do know that Jim Clyburn is an icon in state politics and what he had to say today should be taken very seriously.
If any of the allegations have merit, the people of South Carolina have a right to know that.
My campaign is looking closely at data from Election Day and otherwise for irregularities.
As for Mr. Greene, what happens next is entirely in his hands. I wish him well, and hope he makes his decisions in the best interests of his family and the people of South Carolina.
Paid for by Vic Rawl for U.S. Senate

The Candidate Was A Spy, and other startling revelations from Alvin Greene

I may have found a paucity of coverage of the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in my local paper this morning, but the intel is coming in thick and fast from other sources today.

For instance, speaking of intel… didja know Alvin Greene served in military intelligence in the U.S. Army. Really. That’s what he told The Root, anyway. Kind of gives new meaning to the whole conspiracy theory thing, huh?

Read the whole interview here. An excerpt:

TR: Where did you campaign?
AG: All across the state.
TR: Any specificstops or speeches you can remember?
AG: Nothing in particular. I talked with a lot of people over the phone, and people in the press. They’ll print what they want in the press, just bits of it. I don’t know. It worked out. I worked hard. It’s not a big surprise.
TR: How do you plan to beat Jim DeMint in November?
AG: I would like to debate him in September. I would like an hour on a major network. Just to, you know, discuss issues about South Carolina and the rest of the country.
TR What do you think makes you a better candidate than DeMint?
AG: We have more unemployed now than any other time in South Carolina’s history, so something isn’t working. We spend two times more on inmates than students. Priorities are not in order. I want to make a difference and Jim–the incumbent Sen. Jim DeMint–he’s against the health care reform. They’re trying to repeal the health care law that was passed. The Republicans are trying to repeal the health care bill that was signed into law recently. Things like that. That’s the difference. I’m for health care reform. And getting folks to work here.
TR: Do you plan on getting a Web site now that you’re through the primaries?
AG: Well, I need campaign contributions to really get my Web site up. I’m working on that now, but that comes from campaign contributions.
TR: Do you have any?
AG: No, but I’m working on some things.

The Fix lists Top Five nastiest SC races ever

We are truly legendary, to the point that political junkies sit around up in Washington dreaming up Top Five lists about us, a laHigh Fidelity, such as “The five nastiest South Carolina races ever.”

At least, Chris Cillizza at the WashPost‘s The Fix does.

And it’s a pretty good list even though it’s awfully heavy on stuff that happened during my own career. He does, to give him credit, give a mention to the legendary Preston Brooks, but the Top Five are all 1978 or later.

Given that limitation, it’s a good list. He counts them down thusly:

5. 2002 Republican governors runoff: This is the one I wrote about yesterday (at least, I wrote about the GOP effort to come together AFTER this nasty battle), between Mark Sanford and Bob Peeler. Peeler’s campaign, run by party regulars, was inexcusable, as Cillizza correctly recalls: “In one particularly memorable Peeler ad, a Sanford look-alike is shown stripping a soldier down to his underwear to illustrate Sanford’s alleged attitude toward military funding.” Yep. I remember it well.
4. 1978 4th district race: The abominable campaign against Max Heller, featuring anti-Semitic push-polling by Carroll Campbell’s pollster. I was in Tennessee at the time covering Lamar Alexander and Jake Butcher, but I’ve heard plenty about this from my good friend Samuel Tenenbaum over the years.
3. 1980 2nd district race: Also before I came home to SC, but I knew the players later: Lee Atwater, on behalf of Floyd Spence, told the press that Tom Turnipseed had been hooked up to “jumper cables” — a reference to shock treatments he had received for depression as a teenager.
2. 2010 Republican governors primary: That’s the one we just lived through. Or rather, are still living through. If we live.
1. 2000 Republican presidential primary: The filthy tricks that George W. Bush’s campaign used against John McCain to stop his candidacy and give Bush the momentum to go on and win the presidency. Not sure this was necessarily the nastiest by SC standards, but it certainly had the most profound impact on the world. I firmly believe that otherwise John McCain would have been our president on 9/11 and thereafter, which would have been better for us all. That knowledge of how South Carolina let the world down was very much on my mind when we pushed for McCain’s victory in the 2008 primary. (I also felt responsible because the newspaper — over my strong objections — endorsed Bush over McCain in 2000.)
They keep talking about us. And they will continue to do so, until we turn our backs on all this stuff. Which is why I’m rooting for Vincent Sheheen.

The Politico profile of Will Folks

Monday night, as I was resting up before election day, I got an e-mail from Ben Smith at Politico asking for an interview the following day — about Will Folks and the Nikki Haley story.

I said OK, and called him next morning on the Blackberry as I was driving to my polling place to vote. I was a little distracted during the interview because I was hunting for my polling place (sometimes it’s at the John Deere place on 378, sometimes at the church across the road — and I mistakenly went to the Deere place first as we spoke), but he seems to have extracted a couple of tidbits worth using.

Nothing I haven’t said before here, I don’t think. But y’all might find the piece interesting. It’s fairly long — which means that Polito has now published more about Will Folks than my old newspaper did this morning about Alvin Greene. Sigh

It’s called “The blogger who upended S.C. politics.” Which you know Will’s gotta be digging.

Where was The State on Alvin Greene TODAY?

As I’ve been saying to anyone who asks, the nomination of Alvin Greene is a failure with enough blame to go around to everyone. The voters, of course (as politically incorrect, as anti-democratic, as it is to blame the precious voter). The Democratic Party. And definitely the media — both MSM and the vaunted, tell-you-everything (according to the hype) blogosphere. Apparently, bloggers were too busy telling you who they’d slept with to check out who the hell this guy was. (And yes, I include myself — not on the kiss-and-tell part, but on the not-checking-out-Alvin part.)

As for the MSM — well, it’s awfully easy to beat up on them on this. And they deserve it. That is NOT to blame the reporters and editors who are busting their butts trying to get the job done with grossly inadequate resources. It’s to blame the media as institutions that have failed as businesses to stay viable enough to do their jobs properly. Sound self-interested, since the failure of newspapers is why I don’t have a job with them any more? Well, yeah. But as a former newspaper exec, and an editor for three decades, I know whereof I speak.

True, newspapers have long ignored noncandidates. And they have long ignored, to a lesser extent, primary races to nominate a sacrificial lamb to go up against an invulnerable incumbent. Not because that was the right thing to do, but because when you’re covering scores of races, you have to set priorities, and the hotly contested ones get most of the ink.

But that traditional bias against the boring has been exponentially exacerbated by the emptying of newsrooms via the layoffs of recent years. Now, it’s not a choice; some important races simply are not going to be covered.

This year, you pretty much had to be in the governor’s race to get the media’s attention. And even then, if your name wasn’t Nikki Haley, it was hard to get free media. After he withdrew from the race several months ago, Dwight Drake told me that he had expected it to be hard to raise money (and it was so hard for him that that’s why he quit). But what surprised him was that the media was not to be found. As an old political hand, he was stunned at the lack of coverage.

But still. For none of us — not even people like me, who TRY (but often fail) to keep up with as much of it as possible — to know anything about this Alvin Greene guy is just outrageous. At the very least, even if this noncandidate was ignored, Vic Rawl should have gotten the minimal coverage necessary to give him the name recognition to win. But he didn’t.

OK, so at any rate, at least the media has jumped all over this story now, right? Mr. Greene has TV crews chasing

Finally, I found it -- at the bottom of Page B3.

him. Mother Jones had a story about him on Tuesday (a day earlier would have been nice, but then it’s not Mother Jones responsibility to inform SC about its own candidates). Everywhere I go, people are asking about him. “All Things Considered” called me this morning to get my thoughts on how all this happened.

Well, yes and no. Yes, he’s getting a lot of coverage now. But… and I really hate to say this about my old paper, because I love it and wish my friends still there all the success in the world … The State was weirdly negligent on the story in today’s paper.

When I read my paper this morning, it was the first thing I looked for. On the front page, of course — that’s where I put it. But it wasn’t on the front page. OK, on the Metro front — nope, not there. OK, so it’s packaged with the jump of another election story… nope. All right, back to the front page, to read the cutesie “winners and losers” story that I had initially bypassed about all the quirky little water-cooler talker stuff from the primary. I mean, it’s weird that this didn’t TOP that story if it was in it, but maybe it’s down farther… nope.

I gave up at that point, because I needed to leave to keep my appointment at ETV. But bewildered, I searched the paper again after lunch… and finally found it as a brief on page B3. Not in a roundup of election briefs, but just generic Metro & State briefs. It wasn’t even the first item. It was below a crime brief. As for the content, it was essentially the same brief I had seen on the Web site the day before.

I’m sure the paper will have more complete coverage of this tomorrow, and play it better. Even in the good old days of full staffs, things tended to be disorganized on the day after all-out election day coverage. I see Clyburn’s intimation that it’s all a foul GOP plot is getting some play at thestate.com now.

But I was really disappointed this morning.

Barrett brings back Sarge, leaves out GOP

Boyohboy — Gresham Barrett has hit the airwaves with the first media shot in the runoff campaign. And I’m sorry to say that he’s brought back the drill sergeant.

Some of you say you liked this bit the first time, that it didn’t make you cringe with embarrassment. Well, you should like this, too. But to me, there’s nothing more likely to make me want to look away than “comedy” that doesn’t quite cut it. Also, as weary as I am of hearing all those hollow cliches that GOP candidates love to spout (I’m a conservative a true conservative my daddy was a conservative daddy my mama was a conservative mama…), it’s even more off-putting when they do it with a smug, self-satisfied smirk.

But if you CAN watch, you might notice something, as John O’Connor did:

Missing from Barrett’s new ad? Any mention of the Republican Party. Calls himself “an honest conservative.” http://youtu.be/aCV6kH6voK4

Interesting. Has Barrett decided to join Nikki in running AGAINST the GOP?

You know, that’s going to make the Republicans’ “Post-Primary Unity Breakfast” scheduled for June 23 in Columbia just a tad… awkward. As I anticipated yesterday.

Oh, and another thing about the drill instructor: He needs a haircut. High and tight, Sar’nt; high and tight

Watch me tonight on SC ETV with Mark Quinn — but WITHOUT Nikki Haley

Just taped a segment over at ETV with Mark Quinn for tonight’s installment of “The Big Picture.”

Watch it at 7:30 p.m. on WRLK, as well as on ETV-HD. The show will also air on the radio Friday at 1 p.m.

My understanding is that Gresham Barrett will be on the show as well, although he wasn’t on with me. My part was just Mark and me shooting the … stuff… about Tuesday’s results. We talked Nikki Haley, Vincent Sheheen, Alvin Greene, and other stuff.

However… Nikki Haley, last I heard, will NOT be on the show. In fact, I was told that her campaign had not even responded to any of ETV’s invitations. I asked “What did you try?” and the answer was, “Everything.” Multiple times, in case an e-mail or something got lost.

Could it be … and I’m just speculating here… could it be that Nikki doesn’t want to face the folks at ETV because she plans to vote to sustain the governor’s veto of their funding next Tuesday?

Nahhhh. Probably just a miscommunication. When somebody with her campaign sees this (and apparently someone over there is watching, since it took no time for them to set me straight last week — which I appreciate), no doubt they’ll call ETV back, and you’ll see her on the show tonight.

Maybe.

Who’s that following me? Could it be the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate?

OK, I’m not falling for this stunt again. At least, not entirely.

This morning, I got a message that “Alvin Greene is now following you on Twitter!”

And sure enough, there he was. So I responded, “Apparently, Alvin Greene is now following me on Twitter. Welcome, Alvin. But where were you before now?”

But I was immediately suspicious. Not that there was anything especially odd (considering who we’re talking about here) at his profile page. Here were the only three Tweets to be found there:

Test. Putting South Carolina back to work. Greene for Senate.
about 11 hours ago via web

please email me [email protected] for you volunteer. putting sc back to work!!!!!
about 10 hours ago via web

need help findin a camapgin manager. hit me up at [email protected]. peace.
about 1 hour ago via web

But I doubt it’s him, because I’m seeing a pattern here. Remember when I thought Nikki Haley’s husband was following me last week? Well, that turned out to be a hoax. And here are the things that that follower and this one had in common:

  1. The fake last week called himself “MichaelHaleySC.” This follower was called “AlvinGreeneSC.”
  2. There were exactly three Tweets on each site, all of them new.
  3. The Tweets were sort of plausible, yet with a hint of parody. The “AlvinGreeneSC” one reads as more of a parody than the “MichaelHaleySC” one, but both had a bit of that feel to them.

So who is this sorta kinda wiseacre out there? If it IS a wiseacre. It’s the nature of the Web that one seldom knows for sure anymore…

The Question of the Year

… was posed in this piece, “Republicans’ Tack to the Right: With or Beyond the Mainstream?,” in The Wall Street Journal today:

There now seems little doubt that Republican primary voters have shifted to the right. The question is whether that reflects a move by the country more broadly in that direction—or a shift by GOP candidates outside the mainstream, which could benefit Democrats in November.

I suppose we’ll find out in a few months.

Will GOP be willing to come back together?

The Republican Party theoretically has all the advantages looking toward November, in the gubernatorial election as well as in others: After all, more than twice as many people took a Republican ballot yesterday as voted in the Democratic. Even though she didn’t win her primary outright the way Vincent Sheheen did, Nikki Haley still got a lot more votes than he did. Her 49 percent represented more than 204,000 votes. Sheheen’s 59 percent represented only 110,000.

And the embarrassment over the winner of the Dems’ primary for U.S. Senate shows that’s a party that still has a way to go to get its act together.

But if the GOP continues to be as bitterly divided as it has been lately, if she can’t put all the bickering behind her, that advantage could melt away as Republican get discouraged and stay home, and independents move toward the more upbeat, unifying figure of Vincent Sheheen.

If history is the only guide, she has nothing to worry about: Republicans ALWAYS put their differences behind them after the primary.

But will they this year?  I mean, seriously, have you ever seen it get this nasty before? And not even because of anything any of the candidates did. But the things that were done around them — the words of Will Folks, Larry Marchant and Jake Knotts, and the accusations and counter-accusations that came in response to what they said — revealed some bitter fissures that seem unlikely to heal easily.

Will the mainstream Republicans who have been so roundly criticized by Nikki actually line up behind her? I mean, her campaign from the start has been from the beginning more of a crusade against them than against Democrats. One is reminded of Democrat Pug Ravenel, who in 1974 called the Establishment Democrats who ran the Legislature a “den of thieves” — in response to which they took him to court and had him stripped of his nomination and dropped down the memory hole, a series of events that led a fed-up electorate to choose the first Republican governor since Reconstruction.

I find myself remembering something else closer to the present day. In 2002, Mark Sanford won a bitter runoff campaign to become the GOP nominee. I was greatly gratified over that, and pretty disgusted with the mainstream Republicans who had run a campaign that I felt sometimes went outside the bounds. (If you’ll recall, I strongly supported Sanford at the time. I thought he was the kind of good-government advocate that Nikki portrays herself as today.) Well, he showed them, right?

But as unpleasant as the campaign was, immediately after the runoff — I’m remembering it as the next day or so — leading Republicans from throughout the state, representing all his primary opponents, gathered on a dais outside of party headquarters for a big kiss-and-make-up ceremony at which they pledged their undying loyalty, and their unflagging efforts to get him elected in the fall. I was struck by some of the people who showed up — even Glenn McConnell, who doesn’t give governors of either party the time of day normally (McConnell’s party is the Senate more than the GOP).

I was there, and I wanted to talk to Sanford for something I was working on, but didn’t get a chance to talk to him. I did run into Jenny, and asked her to give him the message that I was looking for him. He called me later on his mobile from a car leaving town.

I said something like, “That was some event, huh? They’re really lining up behind you.” And while I don’t have the exact words in front of me, he said something life, “Yeah, well. I suppose one has to do those kinds of things.” He was MIGHTILY bored, and his voiced just dripped contempt for these former rivals who had showed up to promise to fight for him. He obviously saw himself as someone apart from and above the whole GOP solidarity thing.

Now, you know, I can’t stand political parties, and I think party loyalty is one of the most harmful forces in American politics — it fosters intellectual dishonesty, requiring that adherents always agree with the most foolish thing that a member of their party says, and disagree with the wisest utterances of their opponents. And I liked that Sanford wasn’t a typical Republican in that regard.

But even I was put off by his condescension. It was really obnoxious. But at the time, I brushed past it, moving on to the reason I had wanted him to call me. And it was just such an ODD moment — you know how it is sometimes when somebody says something really odd and off-key, and you just move past it — that I didn’t know how to take it or what to say about it.

Now I do. Now I’ve seen, over and over, the kind of contempt in which Mark Sanford holds those poor saps who came out to support him that day. Now, that remark doesn’t stand out as a stray anomaly. It fits.

More than that, they’ve seen it, too. And they are bound to be wary of lining up behind someone else who shows every sign of wanting to be just like Mark Sanford, someone who hasn’t even waited to become governor to alienate them and run against them.

So I wonder: Will the usual thing happen? Will the GOP close ranks and line up behind Nikki Haley? And will they be saps again if they do so?

OK, let’s beat up on ME: I’m a horrible citizen

People are giving me a hard time for being mean to Andre, as I knew they would. I just got to thinking about how recently lots of folks were worried about him becoming governor (with reason) and thought someone should take note of how fortunate things turned out.

So now I’m going to feel like a louse next time I see Andre. Only I won’t tell him that because I hate backing down, and that’ll make me feel like even more of a louse… It’s tough being a Catholic blogger. All that guilt.

But let me see if I can expiate a little of it with some mortification of me. Don’t feel bad, Andre: I’m a horrible citizen. I’ll bet Andre at least knew who he wanted to vote for for U.S. Senate. But I didn’t, so I left it blank, and look what happened: A guy facing charges for indecency got nominated over the only candidate I’d heard of on the Democratic side — a guy who, as far as I know, was perfectly fine.

How can a guy facing a morals charge, a guy with “no campaign funds, no signs, and no website” even, win the primary over a guy who had at least campaigned a little? Someone suggested it was because his name was on the ballot first. Kind of makes you wonder about this whole Democracy thing, huh?
I mean, come ON, people — I’d never heard of this Greene guy. I didn’t know MUCH about Vic Rawl, beyond the fact that he’s one of my 542 Facebook “friends.” At least he’d taken the trouble to do THAT.
But I can’t castigate anyone but myself. I didn’t vote in that race. And that was supremely irresponsible of me. I should have done the research, in spite of the fact that Jim DeMint seems inevitable. I don’t like having DeMint as my senator, and I should at least do my best to decide whom I want going up against him, however slim that candidate’s chances may be.
But I didn’t. I was so mesmerized by the governor’s race, and a couple of others that happened to catch my eye along the way, that I neglected that one. And of course, I hadn’t even decided to vote in the Democratic primary until the last minute.
My problem is, I’m so accustomed to knowing a lot about these candidates in spite of myself, because they all used to come see me for endorsement interviews. I have to learn to do what everybody else does (at least, they do it if they are good citizens), and do my research as a citizen and be prepared. Next time, I will.
Y’all remind me.

Just in case you thought DeMint was in trouble…

Not that you did, but just in case you did, I’ll share this release from Democratic Party HQ:

Columbia, SC- Today, South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Carol Fowler asked Alvin Greene to withdraw from the race for US Senate. Greene, a resident of Manning S.C., was the apparent winner of the Democratic Party’s nomination for U.S. Senate in yesterday’s primary. Since the election, the Associated Press has revealed that Greene was recently charged with disseminating, procuring or promoting obscenity after showing obscene photos to a University of South Carolina student. Fowler released the following statement after her conversation with Greene:

“Today I spoke with Alvin Greene, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the US Senate, and asked him to withdraw from the race. I did not do this lightly, as I believe strongly that the Democratic voters of this state have the right to select our nominee.  But this new information about Mr. Greene has would certainly have affected the decisions of many of those voters,” said Fowler.

“We are proud to have nominated a Democratic ticket this year that, with the apparent exception of Mr. Greene, reflects South Carolina’s values.  Our candidates want to give this state a new beginning without the drama and irresponsibility of the past 8 years, and the charges against Mr. Greene indicate that he cannot contribute to that new beginning.  I hope he will see the wisdom of leaving the race.”

You see, the Democrats are jealous: The Republicans are getting all that free media on “The Daily Show,” and they want some, too…

Some big smiles from the night’s big winner

Looking back over the pictures I shot tonight at Vincent Sheheen’s victory party, the thing that strikes me is that I actually have a couple of shots of the normally low-key, unassuming Sheheen with a supercharged, 1,000-watt grin. (C. Aluka Berry, standing right next to me, got an even BIGGER grin over at thestate.com.)

And why not? He was the night’s big winner.

Maybe y’all saw this coming; I certainly didn’t. I thought if anybody won all the marbles for a gubernatorial nomination tonight, it would be Nikki Haley. If you look at polls from recent weeks, the trend was up and up for her, at a meteoric pace, with the last poll showing her at 43 percent, with a bullet. By contrast, the best the slow-but-steady Sheheen had shown in a poll was 36 percent. And that was in a three-way race (really, a two-way), while Nikki was posting those numbers pulling away from a field of four.

So it was that I was worried I was driving away from the REAL story tonight by heading over to Camden, but it turns out that’s where the Big Mo of the night was, while Nikki — while posting better than her polling numbers — found herself in a runoff with the lackluster Gresham Barrett (yeah, the guy in the painfully strained, goofy drill sergeant ad).

Republicans will comfort themselves that they had more than twice the turnout, but good Lord, I expected them to do better than THAT. Look at all the hotly contested races they had, at every level. While Democrats (at my polling place, anyway) had the governor’s race, plus a nearly invisible two-way competition for the office they have owned, superintendent of education, and oh yes — they got to choose (yawn) who would get to lose to Jim DeMint in the fall. Y’all know what a hard time I had deciding to forgo having a say in all those GOP contests (and only chose a Democratic ballot in the end because I felt so strongly that Vincent was the right man for governor– and I wanted to cast a positive vote for that office); I’m sure most independent voters (and a few Democrats as well) struggled with that same calculation.

How did Vincent do it? Well, I know what y’all are thinking — it was my last-minute endorsement, and the ad he bought on bradwarthen.com. (You’ll note that Rick Quinn and Seth Rose also came out on top, obviously for the same reason — the ads — and Scott Winburn would have won, but he and Seth couldn’t both do so.)

But I think there were other factors at work, too. I cited some of them last night. And I think Nikki Haley, once she’s done soaking up all this free media of recent days, is going to find Vincent a tough opponent in the long haul. And Vincent is going to find her a really energetic, talented campaigner who will shine on the stump as the uglier memories of this embarrassing GOP primary (which now has two more weeks to go) fade.

This is going to be a great election for our next governor.

Cap City Club all set for Nikki’s Big Night

I dropped by the Capital City Club just before the polls closed, and things were buzzing.

According to a Tweet by Jack Kuenzie — whom I saw huddled over against a wall Twittering away — I had just missed Nikki, who had come to check things out, then left when cameras started appearing.The crowd hadn’t started gathering yet, but it was way early. And even though things were just being set up, there was electricity in the air. This is going to be a big event.

Club staff said they expect 300 people, but I’m guessing it will be more than that. From national media to supporters, the world is surging toward Nikki Haley tonight. She’s peaking, and the buzz is considerable.

I’ve stopped by home — had to bring home some dog food, because my dog doesn’t CARE that it’s primary night. About to grab a bite and go back our to check watch parties.

Debating with myself to go to the OTHER big event tonight, the Vincent Sheheen party — but it’s way over in Camden. Maybe I can run over there, and see what’s happening, then if things are running late (I heard Nikki wasn’t expected at her party before 10) I can catch some of the local action.

But first, a quick breathing treatment (I can’t believe my asthma chose today to kick up), and a quick bite, and then I’m off…

Pore ol’ Henry can’t even get his picture in the paper anymore

Reading my Wall Street Journal this morning, I was struck with just how far poor ol’ Henry McMaster has fallen from when I thought he was the most likely of the GOP hopefuls.

The WSJ had a roundup of “Primaries to Watch From Coast to Coast,” and they had this little bit from our own Valerie Bauerlein:

In her quest to succeed embattled Gov. Mark Sanford, state Rep. Nikki Haley appears to have been helped, rather than hurt, by allegations of marital infidelity made by two men.
The topic has dominated the GOP primary in the two weeks since a popular blogger said he had an “inappropriate physical relationship” with Mrs. Haley, who is married. A powerful lobbyist was soon fired as an adviser to rival Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer’s campaign after saying that he, too, had a liaison with Mrs. Haley.
Mrs. Haley has raised less money and has fewer political connections than her rivals: Mr. Bauer, Attorney General Henry McMaster and U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett. But her anti-establishment message has resonated, and she has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and the governor’s ex-wife, Jenny Sanford.
Weekend polls show many voters discount the claims against Ms. Haley, raising the specter that she may even receive more than 50% of votes cast, the threshold required to avoid a June 22 runoff.
—Valerie Bauerlein

But the text isn’t what I noticed first. What I noticed was that there were only two pictures: Media Darling Nikki Haley and Gresham Barrett.

I feel bad for Henry, who has been a good attorney general. Maybe he can squeeze past Gresham and get in a runoff. But in the end, Nikki wins it — if she doesn’t go ahead and win it all tonight.

So, do you think Nikki will take it all tonight?

I sort of do. If you look at all the trends of the last couple of weeks — the ads from ReformSC, the Palin endorsement, the sympathy-generating scandals, the even-more-sympathy-generating ethnic slur, poll after poll with her numbers higher in each (which is something that feeds on itself), the constant free media (hey, all she needs is that they spell her name right) while her opponents fade into the background (or air embarrassing commercials, such as that awful Gresham Barrett one with the drill sergeant), and the fact that, independent of all that, Nikki Haley has just felt like a candidate with the Big Mo for weeks now (she was the most poised and confident I’ve ever seen her at that Palin rally)…

I feel like she’s peaking, and could surpass 50 percent tonight. Do y’all sense that?

Of course, the odds are slightly against it, but there’s a good chance.

It also occurs to me that Vincent Sheheen might do the same, but that’s more doubtful. His rise in the polls has been quieter and far less meteoric. Force me to bet, and I’d bet he’s in a runoff, which he will win. But Nikki? She just might win the whole thing today…

South Carolina continues to entertain — which is why I voted for Vincent

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Thank You, South Carolina – The Race to Replace Disgrace
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party

Some alert readers brought my attention to Jon Stewart’s latest (well-deserved) mockery of South Carolina. Punch line, as in previous celebrations of our state (such as this one, and this one): “With all the terrible things going on in the world… Thank you, South Carolina! We really needed this!”

Entertaining, yes. But I’m tired of my state being a national joke, which is why I voted for change today.

Bob Inglis in trouble for thinking for himself

At least, that’s what I assume, based on what little I’ve heard about that race this year.

Today, Mike Fitts brought my attention to this piece on a Congressional Quarterly blog:

Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.) appears to be headed to a runoff against Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) and his chances in that contest don’t look good, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling.

Gowdy leads Inglis 37 percent to 33 percent while a trio of other GOP candidates each took less than 10 percent, according to an automated telephone survey of 300 likely 4th district GOP primary voters….

Gowdy is running as the anti-establishment candidate while attacking Inglis for moving to the center of the ideological spectrum since returning to Congress in 2004 (he served a six-year stint in the House in the 1990s).

Gowdy polled better among voters who identified themselves as part of the Tea Party movement and appears much more likely to pick up those voters who pick one of the second tier candidates on Tuesday. Meanwhile Inglis won’t be helped by the fact that 45 percent of 4th district GOP primary voters said they disapprove of the direction the Republican party is headed while just 26 percent said they approve.

This is extremely ironic. I first heard of Bob Inglis when he came out of nowhere as a sort of Stealth candidate of the right wing of the GOP. The MSM had no idea he was going to beat Democrat Liz Patterson. There was muttering about how he had done all his campaigning through churches rather than the usual channels — this was about the time that the religious right was making its move in the SC GOP, a wave that David Beasley would ride to the governor’s office after making his party switch.

Bob was from the beginning a true believer, an absolute opponent of wasteful spending. He earned my respect by being the only member of the SC delegation to vote against highway spending that would have benefited his own district. Politicians just didn’t do that — but Bob did.

He has continued to go his own way in the years since, and I don’t always agree with him — for instance, I think he was wrong to oppose the Petraeus troop surge in Iraq. But I’ve always respected him for having guts, and for thinking for himself. That’s all too rare in Washington today.

But the Republicans in his district — indeed, throughout our state, judging by the governor’s race — apparently don’t want that anymore. Frankly, watching the Tea Party and such, I’m getting to where I wonder whether they know what they want.

How’s the turnout where YOU are?

Note how empty my polling place was this morning at 10:50 a.m. Of course, this wasn’t exactly morning rush hour, and it was before the busy lunch hour, but still. Take a look at the pictures back here to see what it looked like on Election Day 2008 at the Quail Hollow precinct. In a big-turnout election, it would have taken me an hour of standing in the queue outside before I got to the doorway where I took the picture above.

But the poll workers said this was good turnout for a state primary. How good was it? At 10:55, when I left, there had been 218 voters in the Republican primary, and 31 (including me) choosing a Democratic ballot (for which I felt like I had to mutter an excuse along the lines of “I’m just fed up with those Republicans this year” — like they cared or something).