Just in case you thought DeMint was in trouble…

Not that you did, but just in case you did, I’ll share this release from Democratic Party HQ:

Columbia, SC- Today, South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Carol Fowler asked Alvin Greene to withdraw from the race for US Senate. Greene, a resident of Manning S.C., was the apparent winner of the Democratic Party’s nomination for U.S. Senate in yesterday’s primary. Since the election, the Associated Press has revealed that Greene was recently charged with disseminating, procuring or promoting obscenity after showing obscene photos to a University of South Carolina student. Fowler released the following statement after her conversation with Greene:

“Today I spoke with Alvin Greene, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the US Senate, and asked him to withdraw from the race. I did not do this lightly, as I believe strongly that the Democratic voters of this state have the right to select our nominee.  But this new information about Mr. Greene has would certainly have affected the decisions of many of those voters,” said Fowler.

“We are proud to have nominated a Democratic ticket this year that, with the apparent exception of Mr. Greene, reflects South Carolina’s values.  Our candidates want to give this state a new beginning without the drama and irresponsibility of the past 8 years, and the charges against Mr. Greene indicate that he cannot contribute to that new beginning.  I hope he will see the wisdom of leaving the race.”

You see, the Democrats are jealous: The Republicans are getting all that free media on “The Daily Show,” and they want some, too…

Count your blessings, SC: Andre won’t be our governor

Amid all the hoo-hah over Nikki Haley and Gresham Barrett and Vincent Sheheen, and Converse Chellis losing his job and all that down-ballot stuff, it’s easy to forget to be thankful for something:

Andre Bauer is not going to be our governor.

You’re going to scoff, now, and say “How absurd; he was never going to be our governor!” And I say, how soon we forget.

Remember that last year, when we were all suffering Sanford fatigue and thinking how great it would be not to have to look at his long, morose face any more, mooning over his soulmate, we’d get to the point of talking about getting rid of him, and somebody would always say, “Hold on! No way! Then we’d be stuck with Andre.”

Now I thought that was wrongheaded. I thought the very best way to make sure that Andre would NOT be elected governor would be to make him our interim governor. I felt certain that the best way to inoculate ourselves against him was with a big dose of scrutiny. And to make him governor at a time when that office was under unprecedented close attention would guarantee he’d have no chance at the ballot box.

As things worked out, he got enough scrutiny for voters to say “No way.” But if he had been serving as governor, there would have been so much more. There would have been another “free-lunch school kids are like stray animals” moment practically every day.

To me, the secret to Andre’s success was that he had to do something extremely outrageous — such as driving over 100 miles per hour in his state car and evading a ticket by reminding the trooper who he was, or alarming a city cop so much by his wild behavior in broad daylight on Assembly Street to cause the cop to draw his weapon, or crashing an airplane — to draw attention. As governor, we’d be watching him more, and seeing more.

The reason knowledgeable folks were having these debates — would letting him be interim governor give him a better chance or worse chance? — was that we all knew something about Andre: No matter how dim you think his chances are, he always wins elections. He seemed like a weak House candidate — but he won. He seemed like he’d never make the senate — but he did. When he sought statewide office, no one worried — but he became lieutenant governor. And from the moment that happened, everybody knew what he would try for next. The “hardest-working man in SC politics,” as both friends and detractors styled him, would never quit before he had won the top job. This is the guy who came in second in the primary in 2002, but won the runoff. Then, the same thing happened in 2006, which we all thought meant the voters had enough of him — but he won the runoff AGAIN. You just could not count him out.

The idea he would become our governor, in keeping with this maddening illogic of inevitability, has been a worry nagging at the back of my mind for the past eight years. But now, none of us has to worry about that any more.

So thanks for that, Nikki Haley. And Jake Knotts. And Larry Marchant. And Chip Saltsman (remember? the “Barack the Magic Negro” guy). And all the unsung heroes who have played a role in making sure that we wouldn’t be saying “Governor Bauer” a year from now.

Now — once Nikki has dispensed with Gresham Barrett — we just have to ask ourselves one question: With Andre out of the way, which candidate — Nikki Haley or Vincent Sheheen — would be more likely to get us on “The Daily Show” the most? And then, we most vote for the other candidate.

Some big smiles from the night’s big winner

Looking back over the pictures I shot tonight at Vincent Sheheen’s victory party, the thing that strikes me is that I actually have a couple of shots of the normally low-key, unassuming Sheheen with a supercharged, 1,000-watt grin. (C. Aluka Berry, standing right next to me, got an even BIGGER grin over at thestate.com.)

And why not? He was the night’s big winner.

Maybe y’all saw this coming; I certainly didn’t. I thought if anybody won all the marbles for a gubernatorial nomination tonight, it would be Nikki Haley. If you look at polls from recent weeks, the trend was up and up for her, at a meteoric pace, with the last poll showing her at 43 percent, with a bullet. By contrast, the best the slow-but-steady Sheheen had shown in a poll was 36 percent. And that was in a three-way race (really, a two-way), while Nikki was posting those numbers pulling away from a field of four.

So it was that I was worried I was driving away from the REAL story tonight by heading over to Camden, but it turns out that’s where the Big Mo of the night was, while Nikki — while posting better than her polling numbers — found herself in a runoff with the lackluster Gresham Barrett (yeah, the guy in the painfully strained, goofy drill sergeant ad).

Republicans will comfort themselves that they had more than twice the turnout, but good Lord, I expected them to do better than THAT. Look at all the hotly contested races they had, at every level. While Democrats (at my polling place, anyway) had the governor’s race, plus a nearly invisible two-way competition for the office they have owned, superintendent of education, and oh yes — they got to choose (yawn) who would get to lose to Jim DeMint in the fall. Y’all know what a hard time I had deciding to forgo having a say in all those GOP contests (and only chose a Democratic ballot in the end because I felt so strongly that Vincent was the right man for governor– and I wanted to cast a positive vote for that office); I’m sure most independent voters (and a few Democrats as well) struggled with that same calculation.

How did Vincent do it? Well, I know what y’all are thinking — it was my last-minute endorsement, and the ad he bought on bradwarthen.com. (You’ll note that Rick Quinn and Seth Rose also came out on top, obviously for the same reason — the ads — and Scott Winburn would have won, but he and Seth couldn’t both do so.)

But I think there were other factors at work, too. I cited some of them last night. And I think Nikki Haley, once she’s done soaking up all this free media of recent days, is going to find Vincent a tough opponent in the long haul. And Vincent is going to find her a really energetic, talented campaigner who will shine on the stump as the uglier memories of this embarrassing GOP primary (which now has two more weeks to go) fade.

This is going to be a great election for our next governor.

Cap City Club all set for Nikki’s Big Night

I dropped by the Capital City Club just before the polls closed, and things were buzzing.

According to a Tweet by Jack Kuenzie — whom I saw huddled over against a wall Twittering away — I had just missed Nikki, who had come to check things out, then left when cameras started appearing.The crowd hadn’t started gathering yet, but it was way early. And even though things were just being set up, there was electricity in the air. This is going to be a big event.

Club staff said they expect 300 people, but I’m guessing it will be more than that. From national media to supporters, the world is surging toward Nikki Haley tonight. She’s peaking, and the buzz is considerable.

I’ve stopped by home — had to bring home some dog food, because my dog doesn’t CARE that it’s primary night. About to grab a bite and go back our to check watch parties.

Debating with myself to go to the OTHER big event tonight, the Vincent Sheheen party — but it’s way over in Camden. Maybe I can run over there, and see what’s happening, then if things are running late (I heard Nikki wasn’t expected at her party before 10) I can catch some of the local action.

But first, a quick breathing treatment (I can’t believe my asthma chose today to kick up), and a quick bite, and then I’m off…

Virtual Front Page, Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Here’s what we have at this hour:

  1. Well, today’s the big day — I feel a bit out-of-sync here, because we’re several hours short of having results to report. But nevertheless, this is the biggest thing happening in SC. You can watch results at thestate.com or WIS or whatever, and if I get something good (beyond the numbers), I’ll post. But since I’ll be out and about away from my laptop, I’m liable to confine myself to Twitter until later… By the way, the WashPost is leading its “Super Tuesday” coverage with Nikki Haley. Like I said, she went viral weeks ago. She’s peaking.
  2. Plumes of Oil Deep in Gulf Are Spreading Far, Tests Find (NYT) — More of that bad news that causes Jon Stewart to say “Thank You, South Carolina” for providing comic relief.
  3. Interior Department issues new safety requirements for offshore oil drilling (WashPost) — Lets shallow-water operations get back to work. The Obama administration had been catching some flak in the Gulf for keeping oil workers from working.
  4. Videos deepen mystery over Iran nuclear scientist Amiri (BBC) — “The Iranian government says it has evidence that one of its nuclear scientists was abducted and is being held in the US against his will.” Say WHAT? I mean, if it’s true, good one for our side — it beats a vaporized Israel. But, say WHAT?
  5. GM Recalling 1.5M Vehicles Over Fire Concerns (NPR) — Sheesh, and just when it looked like folks were buying some American cars again…
  6. Cocaine worth $1bn seized in The Gambia (BBC) — Whoa. That is a LOT of blow.

Sorry about that little hiccup there

Sorry about my blog being down for a little bit there. If you were like me, you were getting a “Bandwidth Limit Exceeded” message instead of my blog…

It’s been fixed now, and my technical guru says he’s had to triple my capacity because “You’re getting more popular…”

Well, that’s a good problem to have, and I appreciate y’all’s patronage. But I’m sorry for the temporary inconvenience.

Pore ol’ Henry can’t even get his picture in the paper anymore

Reading my Wall Street Journal this morning, I was struck with just how far poor ol’ Henry McMaster has fallen from when I thought he was the most likely of the GOP hopefuls.

The WSJ had a roundup of “Primaries to Watch From Coast to Coast,” and they had this little bit from our own Valerie Bauerlein:

In her quest to succeed embattled Gov. Mark Sanford, state Rep. Nikki Haley appears to have been helped, rather than hurt, by allegations of marital infidelity made by two men.
The topic has dominated the GOP primary in the two weeks since a popular blogger said he had an “inappropriate physical relationship” with Mrs. Haley, who is married. A powerful lobbyist was soon fired as an adviser to rival Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer’s campaign after saying that he, too, had a liaison with Mrs. Haley.
Mrs. Haley has raised less money and has fewer political connections than her rivals: Mr. Bauer, Attorney General Henry McMaster and U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett. But her anti-establishment message has resonated, and she has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and the governor’s ex-wife, Jenny Sanford.
Weekend polls show many voters discount the claims against Ms. Haley, raising the specter that she may even receive more than 50% of votes cast, the threshold required to avoid a June 22 runoff.
—Valerie Bauerlein

But the text isn’t what I noticed first. What I noticed was that there were only two pictures: Media Darling Nikki Haley and Gresham Barrett.

I feel bad for Henry, who has been a good attorney general. Maybe he can squeeze past Gresham and get in a runoff. But in the end, Nikki wins it — if she doesn’t go ahead and win it all tonight.

So, do you think Nikki will take it all tonight?

I sort of do. If you look at all the trends of the last couple of weeks — the ads from ReformSC, the Palin endorsement, the sympathy-generating scandals, the even-more-sympathy-generating ethnic slur, poll after poll with her numbers higher in each (which is something that feeds on itself), the constant free media (hey, all she needs is that they spell her name right) while her opponents fade into the background (or air embarrassing commercials, such as that awful Gresham Barrett one with the drill sergeant), and the fact that, independent of all that, Nikki Haley has just felt like a candidate with the Big Mo for weeks now (she was the most poised and confident I’ve ever seen her at that Palin rally)…

I feel like she’s peaking, and could surpass 50 percent tonight. Do y’all sense that?

Of course, the odds are slightly against it, but there’s a good chance.

It also occurs to me that Vincent Sheheen might do the same, but that’s more doubtful. His rise in the polls has been quieter and far less meteoric. Force me to bet, and I’d bet he’s in a runoff, which he will win. But Nikki? She just might win the whole thing today…

South Carolina continues to entertain — which is why I voted for Vincent

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Thank You, South Carolina – The Race to Replace Disgrace
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party

Some alert readers brought my attention to Jon Stewart’s latest (well-deserved) mockery of South Carolina. Punch line, as in previous celebrations of our state (such as this one, and this one): “With all the terrible things going on in the world… Thank you, South Carolina! We really needed this!”

Entertaining, yes. But I’m tired of my state being a national joke, which is why I voted for change today.

Bob Inglis in trouble for thinking for himself

At least, that’s what I assume, based on what little I’ve heard about that race this year.

Today, Mike Fitts brought my attention to this piece on a Congressional Quarterly blog:

Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.) appears to be headed to a runoff against Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) and his chances in that contest don’t look good, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling.

Gowdy leads Inglis 37 percent to 33 percent while a trio of other GOP candidates each took less than 10 percent, according to an automated telephone survey of 300 likely 4th district GOP primary voters….

Gowdy is running as the anti-establishment candidate while attacking Inglis for moving to the center of the ideological spectrum since returning to Congress in 2004 (he served a six-year stint in the House in the 1990s).

Gowdy polled better among voters who identified themselves as part of the Tea Party movement and appears much more likely to pick up those voters who pick one of the second tier candidates on Tuesday. Meanwhile Inglis won’t be helped by the fact that 45 percent of 4th district GOP primary voters said they disapprove of the direction the Republican party is headed while just 26 percent said they approve.

This is extremely ironic. I first heard of Bob Inglis when he came out of nowhere as a sort of Stealth candidate of the right wing of the GOP. The MSM had no idea he was going to beat Democrat Liz Patterson. There was muttering about how he had done all his campaigning through churches rather than the usual channels — this was about the time that the religious right was making its move in the SC GOP, a wave that David Beasley would ride to the governor’s office after making his party switch.

Bob was from the beginning a true believer, an absolute opponent of wasteful spending. He earned my respect by being the only member of the SC delegation to vote against highway spending that would have benefited his own district. Politicians just didn’t do that — but Bob did.

He has continued to go his own way in the years since, and I don’t always agree with him — for instance, I think he was wrong to oppose the Petraeus troop surge in Iraq. But I’ve always respected him for having guts, and for thinking for himself. That’s all too rare in Washington today.

But the Republicans in his district — indeed, throughout our state, judging by the governor’s race — apparently don’t want that anymore. Frankly, watching the Tea Party and such, I’m getting to where I wonder whether they know what they want.

How’s the turnout where YOU are?

Note how empty my polling place was this morning at 10:50 a.m. Of course, this wasn’t exactly morning rush hour, and it was before the busy lunch hour, but still. Take a look at the pictures back here to see what it looked like on Election Day 2008 at the Quail Hollow precinct. In a big-turnout election, it would have taken me an hour of standing in the queue outside before I got to the doorway where I took the picture above.

But the poll workers said this was good turnout for a state primary. How good was it? At 10:55, when I left, there had been 218 voters in the Republican primary, and 31 (including me) choosing a Democratic ballot (for which I felt like I had to mutter an excuse along the lines of “I’m just fed up with those Republicans this year” — like they cared or something).

I disenfranchised myself for ONE positive vote, and it was worth it

On the day of the Republican presidential primary in January 2008, I dropped by the office to check on things, and wandered through the newsroom to see what they knew, if anything.

I was wearing one of those “I Voted” stickers that the Palmetto Project gives out to encourage civic engagement. I’ve always proudly worn one on election days as a visible symbol of being one who cares enough to make the effort, without revealing anything inappropriate (for a newspaper editor) about how I voted.

But John Monk remarked upon it, saying, “I see you voted Republican.” Dang! I had completely forgotten the insane fact that the parties had insisted upon having separate primaries a week apart (yet another reason to hate parties). Flustered, I just said, “Well, of course I did.” If I had thought there was any danger of Barack Obama losing the Democratic primary, I would have had a dilemma on my hands. But while I thought McCain would win the GOP contest, I wasn’t sure of it, and I was damned if I was going to fail to do my bit to prevent my state from committing the travesty it had in 2000, when it gave George W. Bush to the world. It just had never occurred to me not to vote in that primary.

Of course, if you live in the Quail Hollow precinct in Lexington County, you’re accustomed to voting in Republican primaries, if only because that’s the only way you get any choices at all. This morning when I asked for a Democratic ballot, I could not remember ever having done so before since I’ve lived there.

And of course, as a result of taking that ballot, I was disenfranchised in terms of who will be my congressman, my lieutenant governor, my treasurer, my attorney general, my SC House member, and my county councilman. In every one of those, there was no Democratic contest, and in two of them (treasurer and county council) no Democrat at all; in those two this WAS the election (and in several of the others it might as well be).

But it was worth it to cast a positive vote. Yeah, I guess I could have held my nose and hoped that Henry McMaster would govern the way he has served as attorney general, rather than the way he has run as a candidate, and thereby minimized Nikki’s margin of victory. But by taking a Democratic ballot, I actually got to vote for someone I actually want to be my governor, without any reservations. And as I’ve said over and over again, electing the right governor is FAR more important than what happens with any other office. We have got to turn this state around, and as weak as the office of governor is, it’s the one office with a bully enough pulpit to make a difference. No matter how perfect my House member may be, he’s just one vote out of 170, and can’t make news (and thereby influence policy) with a mere word.

And I feel good about it. After all the slime we’ve been dragged through over on the Republican side, from talk about who’s bedding whom to “Vultures” to … well, I just don’t even want to think about it. After all that, to vote positively, without reservation, was a great relief.

If I were endorsing, I’d endorse Vincent Sheheen

Ignore what I wrote in that last post. It does Vincent Sheheen a great disservice, by suggesting the reason to pick a Democratic ballot and vote for him tomorrow is simply because of the mere absence of negativity in his campaign.

He deserves a much more positive endorsement than that, for the simple reason that he is far and away the best candidate running for governor in 2010, a year in which we badly need new and visionary leadership in the governor’s office.

Of course, I put myself in a bind a couple of months back, when I sorta kinda decided not to endorse candidates as a blogger. I had all sorts of good reasons not to: No one was paying me to take all that aggravation. No longer representing the voice of the state’s largest newspaper (at least, that’s what it was when I was there), I had no institutional obligation to do it. And while doing it for the newspaper was business, if I did it on my own blog it would be personal, with all the many levels of messiness that entails. Then there was the unstated reason: For the first time ever, I found myself in a situation in which there would be a personal cost of sticking my neck out. A year’s unemployment had shown me how reluctant employers can be to take on someone with as much well-documented baggage as I have (much of it from having taking a stand FOR this powerful person, and AGAINST that one). And I was about to start trying to sell advertising, with the only thing I had to sell being my own brand and how it was perceived — and there is no surer, more infallible way to infuriate close to 50 percent of the public than to choose one candidate over another. Did I not owe it to my family to try to launch this enterprise on a sound footing, and not undermine it by making arrogant (at least, that’s how a lot of people perceive endorsements) pronouncements that would inevitably alienate? After all, I could be honest about what I think about candidates without taking that formal, irrevocable step.

Lots of good, solid, self-interested reasons not to endorse, right?

Well… sometimes one must stand up and be counted, even when one is not being paid to do so. Remember how, when Grace Kelly demanded to know why Gary Cooper had to make a suicidal stand against Frank Miller and his thugs when he wasn’t the marshal any more, he explained “I’ve got to, that’s the whole thing.“? Full of nuance, that Gary Cooper. Anyway, this is an “I just gotta” moment for me, minus the gunplay (we hope).  There are things more important than my own self-interest, or the good of the blog. One of them is South Carolina’s crying need for new leadership at this point in its history.

Ours is still a poor state. On all sorts of measurements of economic and social and physical well-being, from income to health, we continue to be last where we want to be first, and first where we want to be last. We continue to have a political culture, and institutional structure, that reinforces that dynamic, and resists change more steadfastly than the government of any other state. Our government was designed by landed slaveholders to preserve the status quo, because that’s what benefited them. Those men are all gone, but the system of government designed to serve them still exists, and holds us back.

We are also held back by a lack of trust of each other, and a lack of faith in the idea that together, we can overcome the challenges that face us. This manifests itself in the phenomenon we see being played out so dramatically in the Republican primary this year, as the candidates — even candidates I would think would know better — compete to see who can be the most negative, the most rabidly anti-government. What does it mean to be anti-government, in this context? It means to deny faith in our ability to get together, people of different attitudes and philosophies, and work through our differences to build a better future to share.

The radical individualism that all of the Republican candidates embody this year — especially Nikki Haley, the front-runner — has been tried in South Carolina, over and over. Our current governor, Mark Sanford, is easily the most ideologically pure manifestation of that philosophy ever to hold that office.

It is painfully clear after eight years of Mark Sanford — whom I enthusiastically endorsed in 2002 — that such an “I, me, mine” approach to governance does not work. One cannot govern effectively when one holds governing in contempt. That should have been obvious then. It’s certainly obvious now.

Vincent Sheheen offers the positive alternative. Not the “big-government, liberal” alternative that the propagandists of the GOP will accuse him of offering (not because of anything he advocates, but because that is their reflexive, automatic reaction to everything), but a sensible, moderate South Carolina-friendly approach unencumbered by radical ideology of any kind. Before he began this campaign, he was pushing his own proposal for restructuring our government to make it effective and accountable for a change. It is a pragmatic approach that would actually have a chance of becoming law if a governor were behind it. Rather than throwing unacceptable ultimatums at the Legislature and reveling in lawmakers’ rejection, Vincent Sheheen would actually work with lawmakers of both parties (he has a proven ability to do so) to make his proposal a reality. Instead of a governor who can’t even work with his own party and doesn’t want to, imagine how wonderful it would be to have one who works amicably with both?

Now, many of these same things can also be said of Jim Rex. He, too, has a positive, teamwork approach. He’s worked across party lines in advancing his public school choice initiatives, and has formed alliances with some of the most conservative Republicans in trying to improve the way schools are funded in South Carolina. But, because it’s been his job, his policy experience in office has been limited to education. And while better education may be the thing South Carolina needs most, it’s not the only thing; Vincent Sheheen’s experience with public policy is broader, despite his youth.

And in this election, when we have such a need for new beginnings, his youth is an advantage.

That I would say that would surprise some people who have worked most closely with me. I was the grumpy eminence grise on the editorial board who would ask a young candidate, “How old ARE you, anyway?” with a tone that suggested they hadn’t lived enough to be ready for the office they were seeking.

But it’s time now for a generational change. And among the 39-year-old Sheheen’s strengths is the fact that he offers us that.

An old friend, sensing I was leaning that way — because I’ve been honest about what I think of candidates, however much I’ve resisted a formal endorsement — asked me several weeks ago why I would choose Vincent over Jim. I answered as follows, after protesting that I was not, repeat, NOT going to endorse:

Now between you and me, I’d go with Vincent. So you inferred correctly.

Several reasons:
1. You know that with me, it’s seldom about the sum of policy positions. I would be hard-pressed to tell you [off the top of my head] what their policy positions are, beyond the fact that nothing has jumped out at me as bad. Rex has a plan for spending cigarette tax money that I’m not sure about, and I know Vincent’s all about restructuring, to cite a couple of differences that jump to mind. And the restructuring is a biggie.
2. So that leaves us with character, and I think the character of both is fine. But I’ve seen Vincent grow during this campaign in terms of his ability to connect with voters, while Rex is still that trustworty elder statesman who I’d be OK with as governor, but who isn’t likely to inspire. Vincent generates a newness, a sense of a new generation taking over from all the nonsense of the past, that is appealing. And he wears it well; he has his head on straight.
3. Vincent could work with the Legislature. He’s one of them, and that helps make up for being a Democrat. He would come in with lawmakers knowing that about him. He could make a difference. Rex is the guy that they’re accustomed to thinking of as “that ONE statewide Democrat,” and they just won’t be as likely to want to engage with him.
4. Vincent could win in November. Normally I wouldn’t mention that, but this year it’s important. The Republicans are all running so hard to the right, trying so hard to convince us that, in varying ways, they will be Mark Sanfords — even Henry, who should know better — that this year I just don’t see anything good coming out of any of them becoming governor. We so desperately need a break from what we have. And that makes it vitally important that the Democratic nominee not only be someone who’d be an improvement over what we have, but who could WIN in the face of the odds, which are always against the Democrat.

Let me stress again the generational factor. South Carolina needs a fresh start, a real break with its recent past. Vincent embodies that the best. This is a decision I’ve come to gradually, in my own holistic, intuitive way, but I’ve tried to spell it out as systematically as I can for you.

To elaborate on that: Rex radiates the aura of a civic-minded retired guy who’s willing to “give back” if there’s no one else to do the job. Vincent wants to build a better South Carolina, the one that he and his young children will live in. Makes a difference.

It occurs to me that I do my readers a disservice by sharing those thoughts privately with one friend, but not openly with them. So there it is. It may seem to be high on intangibles and low on specifics, but that’s because I had already reached the conclusions that on the specifics, I’ve concluded that Vincent is sound. That makes the intangibles — the ability to inspire, the ability to be positive rather than negative — of great importance. We didn’t worry about the intangibles (such as his aloof manner, his sleep-on-the-futon quirkiness, his hermitlike aversion to the company of other Republicans) with Mark Sanford, and look where it got us.

As I’ve explained before, none of the Republicans is offering us anything positive for our future. That puts me in the unaccustomed position of not having a preferred candidate on that side. But there is no doubt that there is a Democrat who stands well above them all, as well as being a stronger candidate than any in his own party.

That candidate is Vincent Sheheen.

At least, that would be what I’d say if I were endorsing.

Virtual Front Page, Monday, June 7, 2010

The news on D-Day plus 1 plus 66 years:

  1. NATO loses 10 troops in deadly Afghanistan day (BBC) — “Ten Nato soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan in the deadliest day in months for the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf). In the worst of several attacks, five US soldiers died in an improvised bomb blast in east Afghanistan, the US said.” NPR is saying that 7 of those killed were Americans.
  2. Dispersal of Oil Means Cleanup to Take Years, Official Says (NYT) — Yeah, that sounds more like it. Seems like I ran across a comment somewhere this morning suggesting it would take into this fall. Nuh-uhn, thought I — much longer.
  3. Apple Unveils iPhone 4 (WSJ) — Whenever Steve Jobs does show-and-tell with a new gadget, it’s news. What an incredibly enviable marketing position to be in.
  4. Israel Kills Palestinian Diving ‘Squad’ Off Gaza (WSJ) — Not normally front-page news, but given the current state of tension…
  5. A sudden end for Helen Thomas (WashPost) — About time. This arrogant mass of ill-considered opinions posing as a “reporter” should have quit long ago. (And before you say “pot calling kettle black,” I am an arrogant mass of ill-considered opinions who is NOT posing as a reporter. So there, smart alecks.) At least this proves that there IS such a thing as going too far in bashing Israel, however fashionable it may be in certain circles. I had begun to wonder.
  6. Voter turnout expected to be light (thestate.com) — Or not, as The State‘s John O’Connor noted this morning on Twitter. Sorry, but nobody seems to have a more scintillating angle for advancing tomorrow’s vote than that. So I’ll add my own commentary: The most important thing any of us needs to do tomorrow is vote for the candidate most likely to lead us far, far beyond the Mark Sanford malaise of the last 8 years.

I think I just might reject all the negativity, and accentuate (and reinforce) the positive

I’m not 100 percent there yet, but I’m leaning toward a resolution of my dilemma regarding which primary to vote in.

As I wrote in a comment on a previous thread:

But I’m tired of all these recriminations. I’m tired of all the negativity. I’m sick of all the mud-slinging, and the accusations back and forth. I’m leaning toward voting in the Democratic primary, where I don’t see any of that going on. It means I’m disenfranchised on a long list of public offices. But at least I’d be able to cast a POSITIVE vote (as opposed to trying to determine the least of evils) for governor. Maybe candidates who run positive campaigns DESERVE my vote; maybe that should be reinforced.

There’s just been so much ugliness in this campaign, but it strikes me: As Vincent Sheheen — who has been a strong candidate from the beginning – has quietly marched toward inevitability in the Democratic primary, we’ve seen none of that. Anybody besides me noticing that, or are your eyes still glued to the bloody wreck on the GOP side of the street?

What do Rob Miller and Katrina Shealy have in common?

Scenario: Veteran incumbent Republican shoots off his mouth in a way that embarrasses South Carolina across the nation. This creates the opportunity for better representation to emerge, for people with a lot to offer, people with a good chance of beating that incumbent, to emerge, to step forward and offer South Carolinians a chance to have better representation.

Instead, the disappointing candidate who ran against that incumbent last time around and was rejected by the voters steps up and grabs the limelight while media attention is still focused on the incumbent’s bad behavior. That person gets enough free media to become ensconced as THE alternative to the incumbent, thereby discouraging other, potentially stronger candidates from emerging.

We saw it happen with Rob Miller after Joe Wilson’s “You lie!” fiasco. Miller pulled in millions because he was sitting there alone as “Joe Wilson’s opposition” well before the time that better candidates might have made the decision to run. As a result, since Mr. Miller is not a visibly stronger candidate than he was when he lost to Rep. Wilson in 2008, Joe Wilson will be re-elected.

And it looks like the same thing is happening in the wake of Jake Knotts’ “raghead” outburst. Already, there is a “Katrina Shealy for SC Senate District 23 (2012)” Facebook page. Over on her Website, one finds the following message:

Dear Friends and Supporters,

Welcome to my temporary internet home. In the last few days, we have seen all that is wrong with politics in South Carolina and Lexington County. I want to announce that I will again be running for Senate District 23 in 2012.

We deserve real leadership and it’s time for the politics of old to end. Personal destruction and cronyism have no place in our state.

I’m not surprised that my opponent continues to fail to represent the strong values and beliefs of our district. That’s why I would like to ask for your help.

Would you be kind enough to support my campaign with $10, $20 or even $100? It would go a long way in spreading my POSITIVE message of real leadership and good government.

Thank you in advance for any support you can offer. Together we can, and will, change South Carolina in 2012 and beyond.

Sincerely,

Katrina Shealy

So it is that in the coming weeks and months, as other candidates contemplate offering themselves as an alternative to Jake, they will be faced with the prospect of an opponent who a) has name recognition; b) already has funding (both as a result of Jake’s outrageous comment and the pipeline she already had to pro-Sanford sources) and c) has had a lot of people flock to her in reaction to what Jake said. To most potential candidates, those reasons will be enough to say, “Never mind.”

There will be differences. For one, Ms. Shealy won’t pull in the millions that Mr. Miller did. For another, this would be a primary, and she’d have a better chance of beating Jake than Rob has of beating Joe. No matter what else happens in the 2nd Congressional District, when it comes time to count Lexington County’s votes, the Republican has the advantage. A Democrat has to be really,  really strong to beat the Republican in that district (in fact, I’ve never seen it done since Floyd Spence was first elected in 1970), and Rob Miller doesn’t answer that description.

Also, the dynamics would be different. For one thing, with Mark Sanford out of office, Ms. Shealy would no longer have the taint of looking like the candidate the governor sent to take out his political enemy. (Which is why we broke our long history of opposition for all Jake stands for to endorse him against her; I suspect that’s why the voters rejected her, too.) She would have a better chance of standing on her own and defining herself as someone who would represent the people of the 23rd district rather than the governor. (That is, unless Nikki Haley is elected governor, in which case you’d have the same problematic narrative of the Sanford cabal trying to control two branches of government. And after Jake started the hue and cry that let to the exposure of their guy’s Argentina affair, they hate him more than ever. But that concern would evaporate if Vincent Sheheen were governor.)

But as I look forward to the 2012 election, I find myself wishing what I wish this year in the 2nd Congressional District — that other options would emerge. That someone new and untainted by the conflicts of past would step forward to offer a choice that we could all feel good about.

This campaign’s theme song: ‘Dirty Laundry’

Heard Don Henley’s “Dirty Laundry” on the radio this morning, for the first time in awhile, and it just seemed such a perfect accompaniment for the closing hours of the GOP primary.

This recent (May 20) video is low-quality — bootleg, I suppose — but you can sort of hear the lyrics:

Dirty little secrets, dirty little lies
We got our dirty little fingers in everybody’s pie
Love to cut you down to size, we love dirty laundry

We can do the innuendo, we can dance and sing
When it’s said and done, we haven’t told you a thing
We all know that crap is king, give us dirty laundry…

Can celebrity culture GET any weirder?

Noting this People headline (brought to my attention by Slate):

Elton John Sings at Rush Limbaugh’s 4th Wedding

… I find myself wondering, can celebrity culture get any weirder than this?

And the answer is, yes it can. Just read the rest of the piece, such as the guest list (ranging from Karl Rove to James Carville, thereby supporting my thesis that uberpartisans are all the same), or the fact that Limbaugh’s new wife is a descendant of John Adams, my favorite founder. What would John and Abigail have thought?

Friedman notes good news from Mideast

I appreciated this Tom Friedman column, in which he dismisses the troublemakers who grab our attention (such as the blockade-running provocateurs and those who back Israel settlement-building), and directs our attention instead to the actual progress being made on the Israel-Palestinian front:

… I adore the Israelis and Palestinians, but God save me from some of their European and American friends. Their grandstanding interventions — like those blockade-busters sailing to Gaza or the wealthy American Jews who fund extremist settlers’ housing purchases in Arab East Jerusalem — often fuel the worst trends on either side and divert our energies from the only thing that is important: forging a two-state solution.
So is there anything good happening in that regard? Yes. The effort by the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad to build the institutional foundations of a Palestinian state from the ground up — replacing the corrupt, jerry-built structure that Yasir Arafat created and Israel destroyed — is actually making progress. This matters — and must be nurtured.
You see, there are two models of Arab governance. The old Nasserite model, which Hamas still practices, where leaders say: “Judge me by how I resist Israel or America.” And: “First we get a state, then we build the institutions.” The new model, pioneered in the West Bank by Abbas and Fayyad is: “Judge me by how I perform — how I generate investment and employment, deliver services and pick up the garbage. First we build transparent and effective political and security institutions. Then we declare a state. That is what the Zionists did, and it sure worked for them.”
The most important thing going on in this conflict today is that since 2007 the Palestinian Authority, Jordan and the U.S. have partnered to train a whole new West Bank Palestinian security force in policing, administration and even human rights. The program is advised by U.S. Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton — one of the unsung good guys. The Israeli Army has become impressed enough by the performance of the new Palestinian National Security Force, or N.S.F., under Abbas and Fayyad that those forces are now largely responsible for law and order in all the major West Bank towns, triggering an explosion of Palestinian building, investment and commerce in those areas.
Here are highlights: the Jordanians have trained and the Palestinian Authority deployed and equipped five N.S.F. battalions and one Presidential Guard unit, some 3,100 men. Plus, 65 Palestinian first-responders have been trained and are being equipped with emergency gear. A Palestinian National Training Center, with classrooms and dorms, is nearing completion in Jericho so the Palestinians themselves can take over the training. The Palestinian Authority is building a 750-man N.S.F. camp to garrison the new N.S.F. troops — including barracks, gym and parade ground — near Jenin. At the same time, the Palestinian security headquarters are all being rebuilt in every major Palestinian town, starting in Hebron. An eight-week senior leadership training course in Jericho — bringing together the Palestinian police, the N.S.F. and Presidential Guards — has graduated 280 people, including 20 women….

As he says, everything else is just a sideshow. Or should be.

What do Folks and Marchant do after Nikki wins?

Here’s an interesting (if unsavory) thing to contemplate…

First, it’s pretty much a given that Nikki Haley will win the GOP nomination — maybe even without a runoff. So what happens after that?

Well, one’s first instinct as a longtime observer of politics is to think, The allegations against her character aren’t going away. And while folks rallied around her at the last minute to give her the nomination, I’ve seen the way scandals wear away support for a political figure over time. Several months of such talk will erode a lot of her support.

But will that happen in this case? I don’t know. And the reason I say that is this: If Will Folks and Larry Marchant keep on maintaining that what they said is true — say, if Will Folks keeps raising the question of why Nikki, the transparency heroine, won’t release her phone records — then she’s in trouble over the course of several month. Scandal-weary independents, and maybe a few Republicans, will go with the squeaky-clean Vincent Sheheen as a way of putting it all behind them.

But would Folks and Marchant do that, or will they fade as quietly into the background as they can, to deal with their own personal demons? There’s reason to believe they would.

Here’s why: After primaries, Republicans close ranks. It’s what they do. Sure, there’s reason to think that some of them won’t do it this time — Nikki has run AGAINST the GOP establishment, talking about the need to elect “conservatives” rather than Republicans. But most likely their instincts will kick in, and they will swallow their pride and line up behind her.

And if they do that, what sort of future to Folks and Marchant have if they continue to try to trash her reputation? These guys may not have all that many friends — especially Folks — but the ones they have are all Republicans. And the school-choice, anti-gummint kind of Republicans at that. As I’ve noted before, the only GOP candidate I could imagine Folks supporting would be Nikki. In fact, one of the only two explanations of this scandal that makes sense is that Will’s doing it to help Nikki by drumming up sympathy for her (that’s if he’s lying; the other scenario that adds up is if everything he’s saying is true, but I recoil from believing that of Nikki).

All of that argues for these guys curling up into a ball and hoping not to get noticed any more. (Of course, the main thing that argues AGAINST that is Will “LOOK AT ME!” Folks’ natural propensity to make as much noise as possible. In which case we see whether there’s anyone who can still sit him down and persuade him to behave, which remains to be seen.)

Anyway, in a month or so the pattern will have emerged…